Closing spread
GB -10.5
Total
43
Model margin
+8.0est.
GB perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Packers
- Cardinals
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.259EPA / play+0.102
- 35.1%Success rate46.3%
- -0.267EPA / dropback+0.222
- -0.242EPA / rush-0.111
- 6.0%Explosive rate8.0%
- -8.47CPOE+5.43
- 25.9%Third-down rate42.8%
- 36.3%Red-zone TD rate69.8%
- 0.79Points / drive2.11
- 3.0%Turnover rate1.4%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
GB lead 8–5 since 1999
GB have won 3 straight. Meetings average 49.1 points. GB are 8-5 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Cardinals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| John Skelton | 23/46 | 306 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LaRod Stephens-Howling | 17 | 51 | 3.0 | 1 |
| William Powell | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andre Roberts | 4 | 7 | 86 | 0 |
| Michael Floyd | 5 | 7 | 80 | 0 |
| Larry Fitzgerald | 6 | 12 | 74 | 1 |
| Rob Housler | 5 | 9 | 55 | 0 |
| LaRod Stephens-Howling | 2 | 4 | 8 | 0 |
| Jeff King | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Early Doucet | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 |
Packers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Rodgers | 14/30 | 218 | 4 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| James Starks | 17 | 61 | 3.6 | 0 |
| Alex Green | 11 | 53 | 4.8 | 0 |
| Aaron Rodgers | 8 | 33 | 4.1 | 0 |
| Randall Cobb | 3 | 29 | 9.7 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tom Crabtree | 1 | 2 | 72 | 1 |
| James Jones | 4 | 7 | 61 | 1 |
| Randall Cobb | 3 | 9 | 37 | 2 |
| Alex Green | 2 | 4 | 25 | 0 |
| Donald Driver | 1 | 2 | 10 | 0 |
| Jarrett Boykin | 2 | 2 | 7 | 0 |
| Jermichael Finley | 1 | 2 | 6 | 0 |
| Jordy Nelson | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Packers; negative favour Cardinals.
Half-point at risk
1.67%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
69.8%
Expected total
41.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+5.42
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.08
- Expected margin+7.99