2012 · Week 9

Final

Cardinals

Arizona

QB John Skelton

17·31

Packers

Green Bay

QB Aaron Rodgers

Lambeau Field · outdoors · grass · 39°F · wind 7mph

Closing spread

GB -10.5

Total

43

Model margin

+8.0est.

GB perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Cardinals

Packers

Win probability

  • Packers
  • Cardinals

How each play moved the game.

Packers winsCardinals wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Cardinalsedge mapPackers
  • -0.259EPA / play+0.102
  • 35.1%Success rate46.3%
  • -0.267EPA / dropback+0.222
  • -0.242EPA / rush-0.111
  • 6.0%Explosive rate8.0%
  • -8.47CPOE+5.43
  • 25.9%Third-down rate42.8%
  • 36.3%Red-zone TD rate69.8%
  • 0.79Points / drive2.11
  • 3.0%Turnover rate1.4%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

GB lead 8–5 since 1999

GB have won 3 straight. Meetings average 49.1 points. GB are 8-5 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W7GB @ ARI27–23GB
2024 · W6ARI @ GB13–34GB
2021 · W8GB @ ARI24–21GB
2018 · W13ARI @ GB20–17ARI
2015 · playoffsGB @ ARI20–26ARI
2015 · W16GB @ ARI8–38ARI
2009 · playoffsGB @ ARI45–51ARI
2009 · W17GB @ ARI33–7GB

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultARI–GB
ARIQ1 15:003-7Punt0–0
GBQ1 13:263-6Missed field goal0–0
ARIQ1 12:11520Punt0–0
GBQ1 10:201189Touchdown0–7
ARIQ1 5:31927Punt0–7
GBQ1 1:02423Turnover0–7
ARIQ2 14:53343Touchdown7–7
GBQ2 13:261375Touchdown7–14
ARIQ2 7:4433Punt7–14
GBQ2 6:33873Touchdown7–21
ARIQ2 1:54720Punt7–21
GBQ2 0:2300End of half7–21
GBQ3 15:0034Punt7–21
ARIQ3 14:0310Turnover7–21
GBQ3 13:5732Field goal7–24
ARIQ3 13:1233Punt7–24
GBQ3 12:1432Punt7–24
ARIQ3 11:16887Touchdown14–24
GBQ3 8:2139Punt14–24
ARIQ3 6:011074Field goal17–24
GBQ3 0:50278Touchdown17–31
ARIQ4 15:0038Punt17–31
GBQ4 13:2939Punt17–31
ARIQ4 11:0632Punt17–31
GBQ4 9:34726Punt17–31
ARIQ4 4:34860Turnover on downs17–31
GBQ4 2:2044Punt17–31
GBQ4 1:5000End of half17–31

Box score

Individual performances

Cardinals

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
John Skelton23/4630611

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
LaRod Stephens-Howling17513.01
William Powell133.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Andre Roberts47860
Michael Floyd57800
Larry Fitzgerald612741
Rob Housler59550
LaRod Stephens-Howling2480
Jeff King0100
Early Doucet0400

Packers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Aaron Rodgers14/3021841

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
James Starks17613.60
Alex Green11534.80
Aaron Rodgers8334.10
Randall Cobb3299.70

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Tom Crabtree12721
James Jones47611
Randall Cobb39372
Alex Green24250
Donald Driver12100
Jarrett Boykin2270
Jermichael Finley1260
Jordy Nelson0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +10.55.6%7.1%3.2%5.0%3.4%3.4%2.7%

Positive margins favour Packers; negative favour Cardinals.

Half-point at risk

1.67%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

69.8%

Expected total

41.5est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+5.42
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential+0.08
  • Expected margin+7.99