Closing spread
ARI -6.5
Total
51
Model margin
-0.3est.
ARI perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Cardinals
- Packers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.136EPA / play+0.079
- 48.9%Success rate46.8%
- +0.222EPA / dropback+0.154
- -0.003EPA / rush-0.037
- 8.5%Explosive rate9.4%
- +4.71CPOE+4.19
- 43.8%Third-down rate45.2%
- 61.0%Red-zone TD rate62.3%
- 2.45Points / drive2.37
- 1.0%Turnover rate1.2%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
GB lead 8–5 since 1999
GB have won 3 straight. Meetings average 49.1 points. ARI are 5-8 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Packers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Rodgers | 22/37 | 184 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AJ Dillon | 16 | 78 | 4.9 | 0 |
| Aaron Jones | 15 | 59 | 3.9 | 1 |
| Amari Rodgers | 1 | 11 | 11.0 | 0 |
| Aaron Rodgers | 2 | 3 | 1.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Jones | 7 | 11 | 51 | 0 |
| Robert Tonyan | 3 | 4 | 49 | 0 |
| Juwann Winfree | 4 | 6 | 30 | 0 |
| Josiah Deguara | 2 | 2 | 20 | 0 |
| Randall Cobb | 3 | 5 | 15 | 2 |
| Equanimeous St. Brown | 2 | 3 | 12 | 0 |
| Amari Rodgers | 1 | 3 | 7 | 0 |
| Marcedes Lewis | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Cardinals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyler Murray | 22/33 | 274 | 0 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chase Edmonds | 7 | 30 | 4.3 | 1 |
| James Conner | 5 | 22 | 4.4 | 2 |
| Kyler Murray | 6 | 21 | 3.5 | 0 |
| Rondale Moore | 2 | 1 | 0.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DeAndre Hopkins | 2 | 2 | 66 | 0 |
| A.J. Green | 5 | 8 | 50 | 0 |
| Christian Kirk | 4 | 6 | 46 | 0 |
| Zach Ertz | 4 | 4 | 42 | 0 |
| Chase Edmonds | 3 | 4 | 39 | 0 |
| Rondale Moore | 3 | 4 | 24 | 0 |
| Antoine Wesley | 1 | 3 | 7 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Cardinals; negative favour Packers.
Half-point at risk
4.36%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
48.2%
Expected total
45.8est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.02
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-0.32