2021 · Week 8

Final

Packers

Green Bay

QB Aaron Rodgers

24·21

Cardinals

Arizona

QB Kyler Murray

State Farm Stadium · open · grass

Closing spread

ARI -6.5

Total

51

Model margin

-0.3est.

ARI perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Packers

Cardinals

Win probability

  • Cardinals
  • Packers

How each play moved the game.

Cardinals winsPackers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Packersedge mapCardinals
  • +0.136EPA / play+0.079
  • 48.9%Success rate46.8%
  • +0.222EPA / dropback+0.154
  • -0.003EPA / rush-0.037
  • 8.5%Explosive rate9.4%
  • +4.71CPOE+4.19
  • 43.8%Third-down rate45.2%
  • 61.0%Red-zone TD rate62.3%
  • 2.45Points / drive2.37
  • 1.0%Turnover rate1.2%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

GB lead 8–5 since 1999

GB have won 3 straight. Meetings average 49.1 points. ARI are 5-8 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W7GB @ ARI27–23GB
2024 · W6ARI @ GB13–34GB
2018 · W13ARI @ GB20–17ARI
2015 · playoffsGB @ ARI20–26ARI
2015 · W16GB @ ARI8–38ARI
2012 · W9ARI @ GB17–31GB
2009 · playoffsGB @ ARI45–51ARI
2009 · W17GB @ ARI33–7GB

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultGB–ARI
GBQ1 15:00414Punt0–0
ARIQ1 12:5846Punt0–0
GBQ1 11:0937Punt0–0
ARIQ1 10:00888Touchdown0–7
GBQ1 6:171470Touchdown7–7
ARIQ2 12:543-5Punt7–7
GBQ2 11:39734Punt7–7
GBQ2 6:4330Field goal10–7
ARIQ2 6:2459Punt10–7
GBQ2 4:301032Turnover on downs10–7
ARIQ3 15:003-6Turnover10–7
GBQ3 13:53514Touchdown17–7
ARIQ3 11:371276Touchdown17–14
GBQ3 6:221291Touchdown24–14
ARIQ4 14:561264Touchdown24–21
GBQ4 10:451474Turnover on downs24–21
ARIQ4 3:2312102Turnover24–21
GBQ4 0:1200End of half24–21

Box score

Individual performances

Packers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Aaron Rodgers22/3718420

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
AJ Dillon16784.90
Aaron Jones15593.91
Amari Rodgers11111.00
Aaron Rodgers231.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Aaron Jones711510
Robert Tonyan34490
Juwann Winfree46300
Josiah Deguara22200
Randall Cobb35152
Equanimeous St. Brown23120
Amari Rodgers1370
Marcedes Lewis0100

Cardinals

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Kyler Murray22/3327402

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Chase Edmonds7304.31
James Conner5224.42
Kyler Murray6213.50
Rondale Moore210.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
DeAndre Hopkins22660
A.J. Green58500
Christian Kirk46460
Zach Ertz44420
Chase Edmonds34390
Rondale Moore34240
Antoine Wesley1370

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +6.54.5%2.9%7.4%7.3%2.9%4.4%2.7%

Positive margins favour Cardinals; negative favour Packers.

Half-point at risk

4.36%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

48.2%

Expected total

45.8est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.02
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin-0.32