Closing spread
BAL -1
Total
37.5
Model margin
+0.4est.
NE perspective
Push chance
2.2%est.
Win probability
- Patriots
- Ravens
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.091EPA / play-0.107
- 36.5%Success rate37.4%
- -0.084EPA / dropback-0.062
- -0.100EPA / rush-0.179
- 7.5%Explosive rate7.8%
- 28.4%Third-down rate35.1%
- 40.6%Red-zone TD rate45.4%
- 1.00Points / drive1.19
- 2.7%Turnover rate3.1%
- -0.151EPA / play allowed-0.083
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NE lead 11–5 since 1999
Meetings average 47.7 points. NE are 8-7-1 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | BAL–NE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NE | Q1 15:00 | 4 | 5 | Turnover on downs | 0–0 |
| BAL | Q1 12:46 | 3 | 13 | Punt | 0–0 |
| NE | Q1 10:39 | 5 | 16 | Punt | 0–0 |
| BAL | Q1 8:32 | 6 | 37 | Turnover | 0–0 |
| NE | Q1 5:37 | 3 | 6 | Punt | 0–0 |
| BAL | Q1 4:07 | 10 | 78 | Field goal | 3–0 |
| NE | Q2 13:33 | 7 | 34 | Field goal | 3–3 |
| BAL | Q2 10:01 | 3 | 7 | Punt | 3–3 |
| NE | Q2 8:07 | 6 | 18 | Touchdown | 3–10 |
| BAL | Q2 5:04 | 7 | 17 | Punt | 3–10 |
| NE | Q2 2:05 | 6 | 22 | Field goal | 3–13 |
| BAL | Q3 15:00 | 9 | 39 | Punt | 3–13 |
| NE | Q3 9:51 | 3 | 9 | Punt | 3–19 |
| BAL | Q3 8:07 | 1 | -9 | Opp touchdown | 3–20 |
| NE | Q3 7:59 | 0 | 0 | Opp touchdown | 3–20 |
| BAL | Q3 7:59 | 12 | 78 | Turnover | 3–20 |
| NE | Q3 2:41 | 3 | -3 | Punt | 3–20 |
| BAL | Q3 1:12 | 3 | -13 | Punt | 3–20 |
| NE | Q4 14:49 | 9 | 25 | Turnover | 3–20 |
| BAL | Q4 10:13 | 8 | 19 | Turnover on downs | 3–20 |
| NE | Q4 7:01 | 4 | 21 | Punt | 3–20 |
| BAL | Q4 3:53 | 12 | 47 | Turnover | 3–20 |
| NE | Q4 1:18 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 3–20 |
Box score
Individual performances
Ravens
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tony Banks | 18/26 | 163 | 0 | 1 |
| Stoney Case | 8/14 | 88 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Priest Holmes | 16 | 95 | 5.9 | 0 |
| Chuck Evans | 2 | 12 | 6.0 | 0 |
| Tony Banks | 2 | 7 | 3.5 | 0 |
| Stoney Case | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Errict Rhett | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pat Johnson | 9 | 11 | 114 | 0 |
| Qadry Ismail | 5 | 9 | 50 | 0 |
| Priest Holmes | 6 | 8 | 43 | 0 |
| Justin Armour | 2 | 5 | 22 | 0 |
| Chuck Evans | 4 | 4 | 22 | 0 |
| Billy Davis | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| A.J. Ofodile | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Patriots
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drew Bledsoe | 15/25 | 108 | 1 | 1 |
| Troy Brown | 0/1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Terry Allen | 13 | 26 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Lamont Warren | 1 | 6 | 6.0 | 0 |
| Drew Bledsoe | 3 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ben Coates | 3 | 4 | 35 | 0 |
| Lamont Warren | 3 | 6 | 29 | 0 |
| Troy Brown | 5 | 5 | 19 | 0 |
| Vincent Brisby | 1 | 3 | 10 | 0 |
| Shawn Jefferson | 1 | 4 | 10 | 0 |
| Tony Carter | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
| Mike Bartrum | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Terry Allen | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Patriots; negative favour Ravens.
Half-point at risk
2.15%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
50.1%
Expected total
41.7est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.17
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+0.39