2012 · CON

Final

Ravens

Baltimore

QB Joe Flacco

28·13

Patriots

New England

QB Tom Brady

Gillette Stadium · outdoors · fieldturf · 41°F · wind 18mph

Closing spread

NE -8

Total

49.5

Model margin

+5.7est.

NE perspective

Push chance

2.2%est.

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Ravens

Patriots

Win probability

  • Patriots
  • Ravens

How each play moved the game.

Patriots winsRavens wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Ravensedge mapPatriots
  • +0.025EPA / play+0.176
  • 41.5%Success rate50.2%
  • +0.070EPA / dropback+0.282
  • -0.043EPA / rush+0.031
  • 10.0%Explosive rate9.5%
  • -0.27CPOE+1.48
  • 37.1%Third-down rate48.4%
  • 60.9%Red-zone TD rate70.9%
  • 1.80Points / drive2.71
  • 1.4%Turnover rate1.2%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

NE lead 11–5 since 1999

Meetings average 47.7 points. NE are 8-7-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W16NE @ BAL28–24NE
2022 · W3BAL @ NE37–26BAL
2020 · W10BAL @ NE17–23NE
2019 · W9NE @ BAL20–37BAL
2016 · W14BAL @ NE23–30NE
2014 · playoffsBAL @ NE31–35NE
2013 · W16NE @ BAL41–7NE
2012 · W3NE @ BAL30–31BAL

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultBAL–NE
NEQ1 15:00522Punt0–0
BALQ1 12:4836Punt0–0
NEQ1 11:241267Field goal0–3
BALQ1 6:21420Punt0–3
NEQ1 5:00617Punt0–3
BALQ1 2:40414Punt0–3
NEQ1 1:1438Punt0–3
BALQ1 0:191390Touchdown7–3
NEQ2 9:281164Touchdown7–10
BALQ2 4:1830Punt7–10
NEQ2 2:32836Field goal7–13
BALQ3 15:00625Punt7–13
NEQ3 12:46742Punt7–13
BALQ3 10:031172Touchdown14–13
NEQ3 6:1448Punt14–13
BALQ3 4:461158Touchdown21–13
NEQ4 14:56531Turnover21–13
BALQ4 12:46447Touchdown28–13
NEQ4 11:131052Turnover on downs28–13
BALQ4 8:273-1Punt28–13
NEQ4 7:25236Turnover28–13
BALQ4 6:49927Punt28–13
NEQ4 2:05845Turnover28–13
BALQ4 1:062-2End of half28–13

Box score

Individual performances

Ravens

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Joe Flacco21/3624030

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Bernard Pierce9525.80
Ray Rice19482.51
Joe Flacco3124.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Torrey Smith49690
Anquan Boldin58602
Dennis Pitta57551
Ray Rice34220
Bernard Pierce1180
Jacoby Jones1360
Ed Dickson0100
Tandon Doss0100

Patriots

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Tom Brady29/5432012

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Stevan Ridley18703.90
Shane Vereen4164.00
Danny Woodhead3113.70
Aaron Hernandez166.00
Tom Brady252.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Wes Welker8121171
Aaron Hernandez914830
Brandon Lloyd714700
Shane Vereen24220
Deion Branch25160
Danny Woodhead13120

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +83.4%6.3%7.4%3.2%5.0%3.3%3.1%

Positive margins favour Patriots; negative favour Ravens.

Half-point at risk

2.22%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

64.0%

Expected total

44.4est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+3.24
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential-0.08
  • Expected margin+5.65