Closing spread
NE -8
Total
49.5
Model margin
+5.7est.
NE perspective
Push chance
2.2%est.
Win probability
- Patriots
- Ravens
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.025EPA / play+0.176
- 41.5%Success rate50.2%
- +0.070EPA / dropback+0.282
- -0.043EPA / rush+0.031
- 10.0%Explosive rate9.5%
- -0.27CPOE+1.48
- 37.1%Third-down rate48.4%
- 60.9%Red-zone TD rate70.9%
- 1.80Points / drive2.71
- 1.4%Turnover rate1.2%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NE lead 11–5 since 1999
Meetings average 47.7 points. NE are 8-7-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Ravens
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joe Flacco | 21/36 | 240 | 3 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bernard Pierce | 9 | 52 | 5.8 | 0 |
| Ray Rice | 19 | 48 | 2.5 | 1 |
| Joe Flacco | 3 | 12 | 4.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Torrey Smith | 4 | 9 | 69 | 0 |
| Anquan Boldin | 5 | 8 | 60 | 2 |
| Dennis Pitta | 5 | 7 | 55 | 1 |
| Ray Rice | 3 | 4 | 22 | 0 |
| Bernard Pierce | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 |
| Jacoby Jones | 1 | 3 | 6 | 0 |
| Ed Dickson | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Tandon Doss | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Patriots
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tom Brady | 29/54 | 320 | 1 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stevan Ridley | 18 | 70 | 3.9 | 0 |
| Shane Vereen | 4 | 16 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Danny Woodhead | 3 | 11 | 3.7 | 0 |
| Aaron Hernandez | 1 | 6 | 6.0 | 0 |
| Tom Brady | 2 | 5 | 2.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wes Welker | 8 | 12 | 117 | 1 |
| Aaron Hernandez | 9 | 14 | 83 | 0 |
| Brandon Lloyd | 7 | 14 | 70 | 0 |
| Shane Vereen | 2 | 4 | 22 | 0 |
| Deion Branch | 2 | 5 | 16 | 0 |
| Danny Woodhead | 1 | 3 | 12 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Patriots; negative favour Ravens.
Half-point at risk
2.22%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
64.0%
Expected total
44.4est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+3.24
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.08
- Expected margin+5.65