2016 · Week 14

Final

Ravens

Baltimore

QB Joe Flacco

23·30

Patriots

New England

QB Tom Brady

Gillette Stadium · outdoors · fieldturf · 31°F · wind 3mph

Closing spread

NE -6

Total

45.5

Model margin

+6.4est.

NE perspective

Push chance

3.2%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Ravens

Patriots

Win probability

  • Patriots
  • Ravens

How each play moved the game.

Patriots winsRavens wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Ravensedge mapPatriots
  • -0.060EPA / play+0.128
  • 40.7%Success rate44.3%
  • -0.041EPA / dropback+0.276
  • -0.100EPA / rush-0.077
  • 7.1%Explosive rate8.6%
  • -0.41CPOE+2.98
  • 38.2%Third-down rate47.3%
  • 53.9%Red-zone TD rate64.5%
  • 1.63Points / drive2.47
  • 1.8%Turnover rate0.7%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

NE lead 11–5 since 1999

Meetings average 47.7 points. NE are 8-7-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W16NE @ BAL28–24NE
2022 · W3BAL @ NE37–26BAL
2020 · W10BAL @ NE17–23NE
2019 · W9NE @ BAL20–37BAL
2014 · playoffsBAL @ NE31–35NE
2013 · W16NE @ BAL41–7NE
2012 · playoffsBAL @ NE28–13BAL
2012 · W3NE @ BAL30–31BAL

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultBAL–NE
NEQ1 15:0038Punt0–0
BALQ1 13:4055Punt0–0
NEQ1 11:5236Punt0–2
BALQ1 10:531-1Safety0–2
NEQ1 10:47930Punt0–2
BALQ1 7:49649Missed field goal0–2
NEQ1 5:511074Touchdown0–9
BALQ1 1:04739Punt0–9
NEQ2 12:55994Touchdown0–16
BALQ2 9:2821Turnover0–16
NEQ2 8:45875Turnover0–16
BALQ2 4:36629Punt0–16
NEQ2 2:1843Punt0–16
BALQ2 1:00420Field goal3–16
NEQ2 0:1100End of half3–16
BALQ3 15:0039Punt3–16
NEQ3 12:41765Touchdown3–23
BALQ3 8:45311Punt3–23
BALQ3 6:5723Touchdown10–23
NEQ3 6:5000Touchdown10–23
BALQ3 6:43422Touchdown17–23
NEQ3 5:24530Punt17–23
BALQ3 3:11828Punt17–23
NEQ4 14:2437Punt17–23
BALQ4 12:551072Field goal20–23
NEQ4 6:35179Touchdown20–30
BALQ4 6:18961Field goal23–30
NEQ4 2:03626End of half23–30

Box score

Individual performances

Ravens

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Joe Flacco37/5232421

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Kenneth Dixon11393.50
Terrance West221.00
Joe Flacco111.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Steve Smith46570
Mike Wallace58520
Breshad Perriman34520
Kenneth Dixon811421
Terrance West44240
Dennis Pitta45180
Nick Boyle33150
Kamar Aiken14100
Chris Moore1150
Darren Waller1331

Patriots

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Tom Brady25/3840631

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
LeGarrette Blount18724.01
Dion Lewis3144.70
Chris Hogan273.50
James White231.50
Tom Brady1-1-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Chris Hogan571291
James White33810
Julian Edelman715730
Martellus Bennett44701
Malcolm Mitchell45411
LeGarrette Blount1170
Dion Lewis1150

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +63.2%6.1%7.3%3.2%5.0%3.4%3.2%

Positive margins favour Patriots; negative favour Ravens.

Half-point at risk

3.20%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

66.0%

Expected total

43.6est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+4.69
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+6.43