Closing spread
NE -6
Total
45.5
Model margin
+6.4est.
NE perspective
Push chance
3.2%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Patriots
- Ravens
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.060EPA / play+0.128
- 40.7%Success rate44.3%
- -0.041EPA / dropback+0.276
- -0.100EPA / rush-0.077
- 7.1%Explosive rate8.6%
- -0.41CPOE+2.98
- 38.2%Third-down rate47.3%
- 53.9%Red-zone TD rate64.5%
- 1.63Points / drive2.47
- 1.8%Turnover rate0.7%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NE lead 11–5 since 1999
Meetings average 47.7 points. NE are 8-7-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Ravens
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joe Flacco | 37/52 | 324 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kenneth Dixon | 11 | 39 | 3.5 | 0 |
| Terrance West | 2 | 2 | 1.0 | 0 |
| Joe Flacco | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Steve Smith | 4 | 6 | 57 | 0 |
| Mike Wallace | 5 | 8 | 52 | 0 |
| Breshad Perriman | 3 | 4 | 52 | 0 |
| Kenneth Dixon | 8 | 11 | 42 | 1 |
| Terrance West | 4 | 4 | 24 | 0 |
| Dennis Pitta | 4 | 5 | 18 | 0 |
| Nick Boyle | 3 | 3 | 15 | 0 |
| Kamar Aiken | 1 | 4 | 10 | 0 |
| Chris Moore | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
| Darren Waller | 1 | 3 | 3 | 1 |
Patriots
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tom Brady | 25/38 | 406 | 3 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LeGarrette Blount | 18 | 72 | 4.0 | 1 |
| Dion Lewis | 3 | 14 | 4.7 | 0 |
| Chris Hogan | 2 | 7 | 3.5 | 0 |
| James White | 2 | 3 | 1.5 | 0 |
| Tom Brady | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Hogan | 5 | 7 | 129 | 1 |
| James White | 3 | 3 | 81 | 0 |
| Julian Edelman | 7 | 15 | 73 | 0 |
| Martellus Bennett | 4 | 4 | 70 | 1 |
| Malcolm Mitchell | 4 | 5 | 41 | 1 |
| LeGarrette Blount | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 |
| Dion Lewis | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Patriots; negative favour Ravens.
Half-point at risk
3.20%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
66.0%
Expected total
43.6est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+4.69
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+6.43