Closing spread
BAL -3.5
Total
48.5
Model margin
-1.0est.
BAL perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Ravens
- Patriots
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.154EPA / play+0.037
- 48.2%Success rate44.6%
- +0.308EPA / dropback+0.036
- -0.089EPA / rush+0.038
- 10.5%Explosive rate10.4%
- +10.94CPOE+2.86
- 43.3%Third-down rate41.4%
- 63.4%Red-zone TD rate57.3%
- 2.47Points / drive2.30
- 1.5%Turnover rate2.2%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NE lead 11–5 since 1999
Meetings average 47.7 points. BAL are 7-8-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Patriots
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drake Maye | 31/44 | 380 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rhamondre Stevenson | 8 | 51 | 6.4 | 1 |
| Drake Maye | 10 | 25 | 2.5 | 0 |
| TreVeyon Henderson | 5 | 3 | 0.6 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stefon Diggs | 9 | 10 | 138 | 0 |
| Mack Hollins | 7 | 9 | 69 | 0 |
| Kyle Williams | 2 | 3 | 46 | 1 |
| Hunter Henry | 6 | 7 | 35 | 1 |
| Austin Hooper | 2 | 4 | 34 | 0 |
| Rhamondre Stevenson | 2 | 3 | 27 | 0 |
| Kayshon Boutte | 1 | 3 | 16 | 0 |
| TreVeyon Henderson | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 |
| DeMario Douglas | 1 | 2 | 6 | 0 |
Ravens
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lamar Jackson | 7/10 | 101 | 0 | 0 |
| Tyler Huntley | 9/10 | 65 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Derrick Henry | 18 | 128 | 7.1 | 2 |
| Zay Flowers | 1 | 18 | 18.0 | 1 |
| Keaton Mitchell | 9 | 13 | 1.4 | 0 |
| Lamar Jackson | 2 | 7 | 3.5 | 0 |
| Mark Andrews | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Tyler Huntley | 2 | 2 | 1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zay Flowers | 7 | 7 | 84 | 0 |
| DeAndre Hopkins | 4 | 5 | 41 | 0 |
| Mark Andrews | 2 | 3 | 21 | 0 |
| Charlie Kolar | 1 | 1 | 18 | 0 |
| Rasheen Ali | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 |
| Rashod Bateman | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Ravens; negative favour Patriots.
Half-point at risk
2.40%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
46.5%
Expected total
45.8est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.66
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-0.96