Closing spread
BAL -2.5
Total
45.5
Model margin
+3.0est.
NE perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Patriots
- Ravens
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.004EPA / play-0.047
- 45.3%Success rate41.1%
- -0.020EPA / dropback-0.026
- +0.034EPA / rush-0.082
- 10.1%Explosive rate10.3%
- -1.40CPOE+0.93
- 42.2%Third-down rate35.3%
- 46.9%Red-zone TD rate56.0%
- 1.87Points / drive1.54
- 2.0%Turnover rate2.3%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NE lead 11–5 since 1999
Meetings average 47.7 points. NE are 8-7-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Ravens
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lamar Jackson | 18/29 | 218 | 4 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lamar Jackson | 11 | 107 | 9.7 | 1 |
| Justice Hill | 6 | 60 | 10.0 | 0 |
| J.K. Dobbins | 7 | 23 | 3.3 | 0 |
| Devin Duvernay | 2 | -2 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mark Andrews | 8 | 13 | 89 | 2 |
| Rashod Bateman | 2 | 4 | 59 | 0 |
| Devin Duvernay | 2 | 2 | 25 | 1 |
| J.K. Dobbins | 2 | 2 | 17 | 0 |
| Patrick Ricard | 1 | 1 | 12 | 0 |
| Josh Oliver | 2 | 2 | 8 | 1 |
| Isaiah Likely | 1 | 2 | 8 | 0 |
| Demarcus Robinson | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Patriots
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mac Jones | 22/32 | 321 | 0 | 3 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rhamondre Stevenson | 12 | 73 | 6.1 | 1 |
| Damien Harris | 11 | 41 | 3.7 | 1 |
| Mac Jones | 5 | 31 | 6.2 | 1 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DeVante Parker | 5 | 10 | 156 | 0 |
| Kendrick Bourne | 4 | 5 | 58 | 0 |
| Nelson Agholor | 2 | 3 | 41 | 0 |
| Rhamondre Stevenson | 4 | 5 | 28 | 0 |
| Jonnu Smith | 4 | 4 | 25 | 0 |
| Hunter Henry | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 |
| Damien Harris | 2 | 3 | 5 | 0 |
| Lil'Jordan Humphrey | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Patriots; negative favour Ravens.
Half-point at risk
2.01%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
57.0%
Expected total
43.6est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.26
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+2.96