2022 · Week 3

Final

Ravens

Baltimore

QB Lamar Jackson

37·26

Patriots

New England

QB Mac Jones

Gillette Stadium · outdoors · fieldturf

Closing spread

BAL -2.5

Total

45.5

Model margin

+3.0est.

NE perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Ravens

Patriots

Win probability

  • Patriots
  • Ravens

How each play moved the game.

Patriots winsRavens wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Ravensedge mapPatriots
  • +0.004EPA / play-0.047
  • 45.3%Success rate41.1%
  • -0.020EPA / dropback-0.026
  • +0.034EPA / rush-0.082
  • 10.1%Explosive rate10.3%
  • -1.40CPOE+0.93
  • 42.2%Third-down rate35.3%
  • 46.9%Red-zone TD rate56.0%
  • 1.87Points / drive1.54
  • 2.0%Turnover rate2.3%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

NE lead 11–5 since 1999

Meetings average 47.7 points. NE are 8-7-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W16NE @ BAL28–24NE
2020 · W10BAL @ NE17–23NE
2019 · W9NE @ BAL20–37BAL
2016 · W14BAL @ NE23–30NE
2014 · playoffsBAL @ NE31–35NE
2013 · W16NE @ BAL41–7NE
2012 · playoffsBAL @ NE28–13BAL
2012 · W3NE @ BAL30–31BAL

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultBAL–NE
BALQ1 15:0036Punt0–0
NEQ1 13:23531Punt0–0
BALQ1 10:321169Touchdown7–0
NEQ1 4:09772Field goal7–3
BALQ2 14:5730Punt7–3
NEQ2 12:53726Turnover on downs7–3
BALQ2 9:193-1Turnover7–3
NEQ2 8:12632Touchdown7–10
BALQ2 5:58975Touchdown14–10
NEQ2 0:30443Field goal14–13
NEQ3 15:00775Touchdown14–20
BALQ3 12:14774Touchdown21–20
NEQ3 8:39510Punt21–20
BALQ3 6:18444Touchdown28–20
NEQ3 4:4123Turnover28–20
BALQ3 4:0435Field goal31–20
NEQ3 2:33975Touchdown31–26
BALQ4 12:39124Turnover31–26
NEQ4 12:25629Turnover31–26
BALQ4 9:06528Punt31–26
NEQ4 6:36332Turnover31–26
BALQ4 5:35773Touchdown37–26
NEQ4 3:00419Turnover37–26
BALQ4 1:5500End of half37–26

Box score

Individual performances

Ravens

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Lamar Jackson18/2921841

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Lamar Jackson111079.71
Justice Hill66010.00
J.K. Dobbins7233.30
Devin Duvernay2-2-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Mark Andrews813892
Rashod Bateman24590
Devin Duvernay22251
J.K. Dobbins22170
Patrick Ricard11120
Josh Oliver2281
Isaiah Likely1280
Demarcus Robinson0100

Patriots

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Mac Jones22/3232103

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Rhamondre Stevenson12736.11
Damien Harris11413.71
Mac Jones5316.21

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
DeVante Parker5101560
Kendrick Bourne45580
Nelson Agholor23410
Rhamondre Stevenson45280
Jonnu Smith44250
Hunter Henry1180
Damien Harris2350
Lil'Jordan Humphrey0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -2.53.9%6.9%7.5%3.1%4.8%3.1%

Positive margins favour Patriots; negative favour Ravens.

Half-point at risk

2.01%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

57.0%

Expected total

43.6est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.26
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+2.96