Closing spread
NE -7
Total
47.5
Model margin
+3.0est.
NE perspective
Push chance
4.8%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Patriots
- Ravens
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.069EPA / play+0.090
- 44.2%Success rate46.4%
- +0.149EPA / dropback+0.173
- -0.046EPA / rush-0.046
- 10.6%Explosive rate7.6%
- -0.77CPOE+1.32
- 41.5%Third-down rate45.6%
- 57.9%Red-zone TD rate60.2%
- 2.21Points / drive2.38
- 1.7%Turnover rate1.2%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NE lead 11–5 since 1999
Meetings average 47.7 points. NE are 8-7-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Ravens
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joe Flacco | 28/45 | 292 | 4 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Justin Forsett | 24 | 129 | 5.4 | 0 |
| Fitzgerald Toussaint | 2 | 5 | 2.5 | 0 |
| Bernard Pierce | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Michael Campanaro | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Torrey Smith | 3 | 6 | 62 | 0 |
| Steve Smith | 3 | 4 | 44 | 1 |
| Owen Daniels | 4 | 11 | 41 | 1 |
| Marlon Brown | 5 | 8 | 39 | 0 |
| Michael Campanaro | 4 | 4 | 39 | 0 |
| Kamar Aiken | 1 | 2 | 19 | 1 |
| Justin Forsett | 2 | 3 | 17 | 1 |
| Crockett Gillmore | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 |
| Fitzgerald Toussaint | 1 | 1 | -7 | 0 |
Patriots
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tom Brady | 33/50 | 367 | 3 | 1 |
| Julian Edelman | 1/1 | 51 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brandon Bolden | 3 | 7 | 2.3 | 0 |
| Shane Vereen | 1 | 6 | 6.0 | 0 |
| LeGarrette Blount | 3 | 1 | 0.3 | 0 |
| Tom Brady | 6 | 0 | 0.0 | 1 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rob Gronkowski | 7 | 13 | 108 | 1 |
| Danny Amendola | 5 | 6 | 81 | 2 |
| Julian Edelman | 8 | 14 | 74 | 0 |
| Brandon LaFell | 5 | 7 | 62 | 1 |
| Michael Hoomanawanui | 4 | 4 | 43 | 0 |
| Shane Vereen | 4 | 5 | 39 | 0 |
| Brandon Bolden | 1 | 1 | 11 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Patriots; negative favour Ravens.
Half-point at risk
4.78%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
57.0%
Expected total
44.3est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)0.00
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.48
- Expected margin+2.97