2020 · Week 10

Final

Ravens

Baltimore

QB Lamar Jackson

17·23

Patriots

New England

QB Cam Newton

Gillette Stadium · outdoors · grass · 52°F · wind 13mph

Closing spread

BAL -7

Total

44

Model margin

-2.6est.

NE perspective

Push chance

4.7%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Ravens

Patriots

Win probability

  • Patriots
  • Ravens

How each play moved the game.

Patriots winsRavens wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Ravensedge mapPatriots
  • +0.109EPA / play+0.004
  • 45.2%Success rate46.5%
  • +0.125EPA / dropback-0.040
  • +0.093EPA / rush+0.052
  • 10.3%Explosive rate9.4%
  • -0.32CPOE-2.06
  • 49.8%Third-down rate41.3%
  • 71.9%Red-zone TD rate54.0%
  • 2.64Points / drive1.88
  • 1.8%Turnover rate1.9%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

NE lead 11–5 since 1999

Meetings average 47.7 points. NE are 8-7-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W16NE @ BAL28–24NE
2022 · W3BAL @ NE37–26BAL
2019 · W9NE @ BAL20–37BAL
2016 · W14BAL @ NE23–30NE
2014 · playoffsBAL @ NE31–35NE
2013 · W16NE @ BAL41–7NE
2012 · playoffsBAL @ NE28–13BAL
2012 · W3NE @ BAL30–31BAL

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultBAL–NE
BALQ1 15:00416Punt0–0
NEQ1 13:131129Punt0–0
BALQ1 7:581394Touchdown7–0
NEQ2 14:54760Touchdown7–7
BALQ2 11:461065Field goal10–7
NEQ2 5:321075Touchdown10–13
BALQ2 1:02737Turnover10–13
NEQ2 0:0700End of half10–13
NEQ3 15:00471Touchdown10–20
BALQ3 13:17621Turnover on downs10–20
NEQ3 9:40628Field goal10–23
BALQ3 6:241275Touchdown17–23
NEQ3 0:0833Punt17–23
BALQ4 13:1438Punt17–23
NEQ4 11:25824Punt17–23
BALQ4 7:09629Punt17–23
NEQ4 4:20720Punt17–23
BALQ4 1:05512Turnover on downs17–23
NEQ4 0:0200End of half17–23

Box score

Individual performances

Ravens

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Lamar Jackson24/3424921

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Lamar Jackson11555.00
Gus Edwards7426.00
J.K. Dobbins5132.60
Mark Ingram551.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Willie Snead57642
Mark Andrews79610
Devin Duvernay33450
Gus Edwards11310
Mark Ingram22240
Marquise Brown27140
Nick Boyle1140
Justice Hill1130
Patrick Ricard1120
J.K. Dobbins1210

Patriots

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Cam Newton13/1711810
Jakobi Meyers1/12410

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Damien Harris221215.50
Rex Burkhead6315.20
Cam Newton11211.91

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Jakobi Meyers57590
Rex Burkhead45352
Ryan Izzo11200
Jakob Johnson22200
James White2280

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -72.7%3.0%4.7%3.1%7.5%7.0%2.7%4.0%

Positive margins favour Patriots; negative favour Ravens.

Half-point at risk

4.75%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

42.1%

Expected total

43.5est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-4.24
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential-0.08
  • Expected margin-2.62