Closing spread
BAL -7
Total
44
Model margin
-2.6est.
NE perspective
Push chance
4.7%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Patriots
- Ravens
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.109EPA / play+0.004
- 45.2%Success rate46.5%
- +0.125EPA / dropback-0.040
- +0.093EPA / rush+0.052
- 10.3%Explosive rate9.4%
- -0.32CPOE-2.06
- 49.8%Third-down rate41.3%
- 71.9%Red-zone TD rate54.0%
- 2.64Points / drive1.88
- 1.8%Turnover rate1.9%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NE lead 11–5 since 1999
Meetings average 47.7 points. NE are 8-7-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Ravens
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lamar Jackson | 24/34 | 249 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lamar Jackson | 11 | 55 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Gus Edwards | 7 | 42 | 6.0 | 0 |
| J.K. Dobbins | 5 | 13 | 2.6 | 0 |
| Mark Ingram | 5 | 5 | 1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Willie Snead | 5 | 7 | 64 | 2 |
| Mark Andrews | 7 | 9 | 61 | 0 |
| Devin Duvernay | 3 | 3 | 45 | 0 |
| Gus Edwards | 1 | 1 | 31 | 0 |
| Mark Ingram | 2 | 2 | 24 | 0 |
| Marquise Brown | 2 | 7 | 14 | 0 |
| Nick Boyle | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
| Justice Hill | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
| Patrick Ricard | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
| J.K. Dobbins | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 |
Patriots
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cam Newton | 13/17 | 118 | 1 | 0 |
| Jakobi Meyers | 1/1 | 24 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Damien Harris | 22 | 121 | 5.5 | 0 |
| Rex Burkhead | 6 | 31 | 5.2 | 0 |
| Cam Newton | 11 | 21 | 1.9 | 1 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jakobi Meyers | 5 | 7 | 59 | 0 |
| Rex Burkhead | 4 | 5 | 35 | 2 |
| Ryan Izzo | 1 | 1 | 20 | 0 |
| Jakob Johnson | 2 | 2 | 20 | 0 |
| James White | 2 | 2 | 8 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Patriots; negative favour Ravens.
Half-point at risk
4.75%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
42.1%
Expected total
43.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-4.24
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.08
- Expected margin-2.62