Closing spread
NE -3
Total
44.5
Model margin
+4.8est.
BAL perspective
Push chance
6.5%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Ravens
- Patriots
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.010EPA / play+0.203
- 42.6%Success rate48.1%
- +0.065EPA / dropback+0.322
- -0.078EPA / rush+0.088
- 9.2%Explosive rate12.0%
- -2.06CPOE+3.13
- 39.1%Third-down rate48.0%
- 57.0%Red-zone TD rate68.9%
- 1.85Points / drive2.90
- 1.2%Turnover rate1.3%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NE lead 11–5 since 1999
Meetings average 47.7 points. BAL are 7-8-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Patriots
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tom Brady | 30/46 | 285 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| James White | 9 | 38 | 4.2 | 1 |
| Rex Burkhead | 4 | 18 | 4.5 | 0 |
| Sony Michel | 4 | 18 | 4.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Julian Edelman | 10 | 11 | 89 | 0 |
| Mohamed Sanu | 10 | 14 | 81 | 1 |
| James White | 2 | 3 | 46 | 0 |
| Benjamin Watson | 4 | 5 | 28 | 0 |
| Rex Burkhead | 1 | 2 | 16 | 0 |
| Phillip Dorsett | 2 | 4 | 13 | 0 |
| Sony Michel | 1 | 2 | 12 | 0 |
Ravens
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lamar Jackson | 17/23 | 163 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mark Ingram | 15 | 115 | 7.7 | 0 |
| Lamar Jackson | 16 | 61 | 3.8 | 2 |
| Gus Edwards | 7 | 27 | 3.9 | 1 |
| Justice Hill | 3 | 7 | 2.3 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marquise Brown | 3 | 4 | 48 | 0 |
| Mark Ingram | 2 | 3 | 29 | 0 |
| Nick Boyle | 5 | 5 | 27 | 1 |
| Mark Andrews | 2 | 3 | 21 | 0 |
| Willie Snead | 2 | 2 | 15 | 0 |
| Hayden Hurst | 2 | 2 | 15 | 0 |
| Patrick Ricard | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 |
| Seth Roberts | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Justice Hill | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Miles Boykin | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Ravens; negative favour Patriots.
Half-point at risk
6.49%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
61.7%
Expected total
43.2est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.46
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.56
- Expected margin+4.76