2019 · Week 9

Final

Patriots

New England

QB Tom Brady

20·37

Ravens

Baltimore

QB Lamar Jackson

M&T Bank Stadium · outdoors · grass · 48°F · wind 1mph

Closing spread

NE -3

Total

44.5

Model margin

+4.8est.

BAL perspective

Push chance

6.5%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Patriots

Ravens

Win probability

  • Ravens
  • Patriots

How each play moved the game.

Ravens winsPatriots wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Patriotsedge mapRavens
  • +0.010EPA / play+0.203
  • 42.6%Success rate48.1%
  • +0.065EPA / dropback+0.322
  • -0.078EPA / rush+0.088
  • 9.2%Explosive rate12.0%
  • -2.06CPOE+3.13
  • 39.1%Third-down rate48.0%
  • 57.0%Red-zone TD rate68.9%
  • 1.85Points / drive2.90
  • 1.2%Turnover rate1.3%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

NE lead 11–5 since 1999

Meetings average 47.7 points. BAL are 7-8-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W16NE @ BAL28–24NE
2022 · W3BAL @ NE37–26BAL
2020 · W10BAL @ NE17–23NE
2016 · W14BAL @ NE23–30NE
2014 · playoffsBAL @ NE31–35NE
2013 · W16NE @ BAL41–7NE
2012 · playoffsBAL @ NE28–13BAL
2012 · W3NE @ BAL30–31BAL

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultNE–BAL
BALQ1 15:001172Touchdown0–7
NEQ1 8:1330Punt0–7
BALQ1 7:491054Field goal0–10
NEQ1 2:2944Punt0–10
BALQ1 0:41372Touchdown0–17
NEQ2 14:0639Punt0–17
NEQ2 12:41420Touchdown7–17
BALQ2 12:0234Punt7–17
NEQ2 10:26862Punt7–17
BALQ2 7:19210Turnover7–17
NEQ2 6:29625Field goal10–17
BALQ2 3:41515Punt10–17
NEQ2 1:43766Field goal13–17
BALQ2 0:0800End of half13–17
NEQ3 15:00845Opp touchdown13–24
NEQ3 12:211175Touchdown20–24
BALQ3 8:031486Touchdown20–30
NEQ4 14:54727Turnover20–30
BALQ4 12:471662Touchdown20–37
NEQ4 3:1269Punt20–37
BALQ4 1:0300End of half20–37

Box score

Individual performances

Patriots

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Tom Brady30/4628511

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
James White9384.21
Rex Burkhead4184.50
Sony Michel4184.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Julian Edelman1011890
Mohamed Sanu1014811
James White23460
Benjamin Watson45280
Rex Burkhead12160
Phillip Dorsett24130
Sony Michel12120

Ravens

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Lamar Jackson17/2316310

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Mark Ingram151157.70
Lamar Jackson16613.82
Gus Edwards7273.91
Justice Hill372.30

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Marquise Brown34480
Mark Ingram23290
Nick Boyle55271
Mark Andrews23210
Willie Snead22150
Hayden Hurst22150
Patrick Ricard1180
Seth Roberts0100
Justice Hill0100
Miles Boykin0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -33.5%6.5%7.5%3.2%4.9%3.2%

Positive margins favour Ravens; negative favour Patriots.

Half-point at risk

6.49%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

61.7%

Expected total

43.2est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.46
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential+0.56
  • Expected margin+4.76