2013 · Week 16

Final

Patriots

New England

QB Tom Brady

41·7

Ravens

Baltimore

QB Joe Flacco

M&T Bank Stadium · outdoors · sportturf · 65°F · wind 8mph

Closing spread

NE -1

Total

45

Model margin

-0.8est.

BAL perspective

Push chance

2.2%est.

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Patriots

Ravens

Win probability

  • Ravens
  • Patriots

How each play moved the game.

Ravens winsPatriots wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Patriotsedge mapRavens
  • +0.062EPA / play-0.096
  • 46.7%Success rate36.3%
  • +0.153EPA / dropback-0.003
  • -0.078EPA / rush-0.263
  • 8.3%Explosive rate6.4%
  • -1.37CPOE-1.63
  • 37.9%Third-down rate36.0%
  • 60.0%Red-zone TD rate51.1%
  • 2.05Points / drive1.33
  • 1.7%Turnover rate2.5%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

NE lead 11–5 since 1999

Meetings average 47.7 points. BAL are 7-8-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W16NE @ BAL28–24NE
2022 · W3BAL @ NE37–26BAL
2020 · W10BAL @ NE17–23NE
2019 · W9NE @ BAL20–37BAL
2016 · W14BAL @ NE23–30NE
2014 · playoffsBAL @ NE31–35NE
2012 · playoffsBAL @ NE28–13BAL
2012 · W3NE @ BAL30–31BAL

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultNE–BAL
NEQ1 15:0035Punt0–0
BALQ1 13:2035Punt0–0
NEQ1 12:26730Touchdown7–0
BALQ1 9:39312Turnover7–0
NEQ1 8:17748Touchdown14–0
BALQ1 4:51510Punt14–0
NEQ1 2:18537Field goal17–0
BALQ2 14:55614Punt17–0
NEQ2 11:55714Punt17–0
BALQ2 8:11731Punt17–0
NEQ2 4:30958Punt17–0
BALQ2 0:1600End of half17–0
BALQ3 15:00741Turnover on downs17–0
NEQ3 12:1730Punt17–0
BALQ3 11:48420Turnover17–0
NEQ3 10:25619Field goal20–0
BALQ3 7:151178Turnover on downs20–0
NEQ3 2:5632Punt20–0
BALQ3 0:58519Missed field goal20–0
NEQ4 14:19538Punt20–0
BALQ4 12:091062Touchdown20–7
NEQ4 9:2139Punt20–7
BALQ4 7:56617Turnover on downs20–7
NEQ4 6:37940Touchdown27–7
BALQ4 2:0510Opp touchdown34–7
BALQ4 1:59641Opp touchdown41–7
BALQ4 0:4019End of half41–7

Box score

Individual performances

Patriots

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Tom Brady14/2617210

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
LeGarrette Blount16764.82
Stevan Ridley15543.60
Shane Vereen263.00
Brandon Bolden166.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Julian Edelman711770
Danny Amendola23450
Aaron Dobson14210
Brandon Bolden24160
Michael Hoomanawanui1190
Shane Vereen1241
Stevan Ridley0100

Ravens

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Joe Flacco22/3826002
Tyrod Taylor1/4201

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Ray Rice11403.60
Tyrod Taylor33913.00
Bernard Pierce10313.10
Bernard Scott2115.50
Joe Flacco200.01

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Torrey Smith38690
Marlon Brown47510
Ed Dickson45440
Dennis Pitta47340
Bernard Pierce35270
Ray Rice23230
Jacoby Jones14110
Bernard Scott1120
Tandon Doss0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -12.8%4.5%3.0%7.4%7.3%2.9%4.3%

Positive margins favour Ravens; negative favour Patriots.

Half-point at risk

2.16%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

46.9%

Expected total

43.7est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-3.21
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential-0.08
  • Expected margin-0.80