Closing spread
NE -1
Total
45
Model margin
-0.8est.
BAL perspective
Push chance
2.2%est.
Win probability
- Ravens
- Patriots
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.062EPA / play-0.096
- 46.7%Success rate36.3%
- +0.153EPA / dropback-0.003
- -0.078EPA / rush-0.263
- 8.3%Explosive rate6.4%
- -1.37CPOE-1.63
- 37.9%Third-down rate36.0%
- 60.0%Red-zone TD rate51.1%
- 2.05Points / drive1.33
- 1.7%Turnover rate2.5%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NE lead 11–5 since 1999
Meetings average 47.7 points. BAL are 7-8-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Patriots
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tom Brady | 14/26 | 172 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LeGarrette Blount | 16 | 76 | 4.8 | 2 |
| Stevan Ridley | 15 | 54 | 3.6 | 0 |
| Shane Vereen | 2 | 6 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Brandon Bolden | 1 | 6 | 6.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Julian Edelman | 7 | 11 | 77 | 0 |
| Danny Amendola | 2 | 3 | 45 | 0 |
| Aaron Dobson | 1 | 4 | 21 | 0 |
| Brandon Bolden | 2 | 4 | 16 | 0 |
| Michael Hoomanawanui | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 |
| Shane Vereen | 1 | 2 | 4 | 1 |
| Stevan Ridley | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Ravens
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joe Flacco | 22/38 | 260 | 0 | 2 |
| Tyrod Taylor | 1/4 | 2 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ray Rice | 11 | 40 | 3.6 | 0 |
| Tyrod Taylor | 3 | 39 | 13.0 | 0 |
| Bernard Pierce | 10 | 31 | 3.1 | 0 |
| Bernard Scott | 2 | 11 | 5.5 | 0 |
| Joe Flacco | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 1 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Torrey Smith | 3 | 8 | 69 | 0 |
| Marlon Brown | 4 | 7 | 51 | 0 |
| Ed Dickson | 4 | 5 | 44 | 0 |
| Dennis Pitta | 4 | 7 | 34 | 0 |
| Bernard Pierce | 3 | 5 | 27 | 0 |
| Ray Rice | 2 | 3 | 23 | 0 |
| Jacoby Jones | 1 | 4 | 11 | 0 |
| Bernard Scott | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
| Tandon Doss | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Ravens; negative favour Patriots.
Half-point at risk
2.16%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
46.9%
Expected total
43.7est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-3.21
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.08
- Expected margin-0.80