Closing spread
MIN -7
Total
48.5
Model margin
+4.8est.
MIN perspective
Push chance
4.9%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Vikings
- Lions
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.057EPA / play+0.042
- 38.8%Success rate44.6%
- +0.024EPA / dropback+0.128
- -0.222EPA / rush-0.092
- 8.4%Explosive rate10.9%
- 35.5%Third-down rate44.4%
- 61.8%Red-zone TD rate57.8%
- 1.19Points / drive1.72
- 2.0%Turnover rate3.4%
- -0.055EPA / play allowed-0.008
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
MIN lead 36–18 since 1999
MIN have won 2 straight. Meetings average 44.5 points. MIN are 25-25-4 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Lions
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gus Frerotte | 14/22 | 180 | 1 | 1 |
| Charlie Batch | 17/24 | 161 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ron Rivers | 11 | 6 | 0.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Johnnie Morton | 10 | 14 | 128 | 2 |
| Germane Crowell | 8 | 13 | 120 | 0 |
| David Sloan | 3 | 6 | 40 | 0 |
| Herman Moore | 2 | 2 | 16 | 0 |
| Brian Stablein | 1 | 1 | 12 | 0 |
| Ron Rivers | 4 | 4 | 8 | 0 |
| Sedrick Irvin | 1 | 2 | 7 | 0 |
Vikings
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jeff George | 14/24 | 275 | 1 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Robert Smith | 22 | 97 | 4.4 | 1 |
| Leroy Hoard | 7 | 41 | 5.9 | 1 |
| Jeff George | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Randy Moss | 5 | 8 | 155 | 1 |
| Cris Carter | 3 | 5 | 52 | 0 |
| Andrew Glover | 1 | 3 | 23 | 0 |
| Andrew Jordan | 2 | 2 | 13 | 0 |
| Jake Reed | 1 | 2 | 13 | 0 |
| Robert Smith | 1 | 1 | 13 | 0 |
| Leroy Hoard | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Vikings; negative favour Lions.
Half-point at risk
4.93%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
61.9%
Expected total
44.4est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.16
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment+1.18
- Rest differential-0.08
- Expected margin+4.82