Closing spread
CAR -8.5
Total
46.5
Model margin
+5.3est.
CAR perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Panthers
- Saints
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.148EPA / play+0.026
- 36.9%Success rate42.4%
- -0.081EPA / dropback+0.116
- -0.247EPA / rush-0.151
- 7.7%Explosive rate9.7%
- 34.1%Third-down rate38.5%
- 45.0%Red-zone TD rate68.1%
- 1.12Points / drive1.98
- 3.4%Turnover rate2.9%
- +0.007EPA / play allowed+0.053
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NO lead 31–24 since 1999
NO have won 2 straight. Meetings average 44.3 points. CAR are 28-26-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Saints
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jake Delhomme | 26/49 | 243 | 1 | 4 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jake Delhomme | 8 | 78 | 9.8 | 1 |
| Keith Poole | 1 | 14 | 14.0 | 0 |
| Ricky Williams | 14 | 7 | 0.5 | 0 |
| Wilmont Perry | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Keith Poole | 6 | 13 | 104 | 0 |
| Andre Hastings | 3 | 7 | 50 | 0 |
| Eddie Kennison | 6 | 8 | 44 | 1 |
| Lawrence Dawsey | 5 | 8 | 32 | 0 |
| Ricky Williams | 5 | 7 | 5 | 0 |
Panthers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Steve Beuerlein | 22/41 | 322 | 5 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tim Biakabutuka | 8 | 24 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Patrick Jeffers | 1 | 23 | 23.0 | 0 |
| Fred Lane | 4 | 16 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Steve Beuerlein | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Patrick Jeffers | 7 | 14 | 165 | 2 |
| Wesley Walls | 4 | 6 | 88 | 2 |
| Muhsin Muhammad | 6 | 12 | 45 | 1 |
| Tim Biakabutuka | 4 | 4 | 21 | 0 |
| Donald Hayes | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Eric Metcalf | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Panthers; negative favour Saints.
Half-point at risk
1.29%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
63.2%
Expected total
45.9est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+3.24
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment-0.31
- Rest differential-0.16
- Expected margin+5.33