1999 · Week 17 · Division

Final

Saints

New Orleans

QB Jake Delhomme

13·45

Panthers

Carolina

QB Steve Beuerlein

Ericsson Stadium · outdoors · grass · 61°F · wind 7mph

Closing spread

CAR -8.5

Total

46.5

Model margin

+5.3est.

CAR perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Win probability

  • Panthers
  • Saints

How each play moved the game.

Panthers winsSaints wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Saintsedge mapPanthers
  • -0.148EPA / play+0.026
  • 36.9%Success rate42.4%
  • -0.081EPA / dropback+0.116
  • -0.247EPA / rush-0.151
  • 7.7%Explosive rate9.7%
  • 34.1%Third-down rate38.5%
  • 45.0%Red-zone TD rate68.1%
  • 1.12Points / drive1.98
  • 3.4%Turnover rate2.9%
  • +0.007EPA / play allowed+0.053

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

NO lead 31–24 since 1999

NO have won 2 straight. Meetings average 44.3 points. CAR are 28-26-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W15CAR @ NO17–20NO
2025 · W10NO @ CAR17–7NO
2024 · W9NO @ CAR22–23CAR
2024 · W1CAR @ NO10–47NO
2023 · W14CAR @ NO6–28NO
2023 · W2NO @ CAR20–17NO
2022 · W18CAR @ NO10–7CAR
2022 · W3NO @ CAR14–22CAR

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultNO–CAR
NOQ1 15:0010Turnover0–0
CARQ1 14:45517Field goal0–3
NOQ1 12:0231Punt0–3
CARQ1 10:21424Punt0–3
NOQ1 8:41717Punt0–3
CARQ1 5:293-5Punt0–3
NOQ1 3:5810Turnover0–3
CARQ1 3:41337Touchdown0–10
NOQ1 2:02311Punt0–10
CARQ2 14:50568Touchdown0–17
NOQ2 11:57633Punt0–17
CARQ2 7:3732Punt0–17
NOQ2 6:1937Punt0–17
CARQ2 4:09513Punt0–17
NOQ2 1:5857Punt0–17
CARQ2 1:073-3Punt0–17
NOQ2 0:2522End of half0–17
CARQ3 15:00564Touchdown0–24
NOQ3 12:061140Punt0–24
CARQ3 6:4338Punt0–24
NOQ3 5:56854Turnover on downs0–24
CARQ3 3:12475Touchdown0–31
NOQ3 0:54865Touchdown7–37
CARQ4 13:0000Touchdown7–38
NOQ4 12:3987Turnover on downs7–38
CARQ4 9:35659Touchdown7–45
NOQ4 7:24852Turnover7–45
CARQ4 4:062-10Turnover7–45
NOQ4 3:1510Turnover7–45
CARQ4 3:05816Turnover on downs7–45
NOQ4 1:37539Touchdown13–45
CARQ4 0:183-10End of half13–45

Box score

Individual performances

Saints

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jake Delhomme26/4924314

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Jake Delhomme8789.81
Keith Poole11414.00
Ricky Williams1470.50
Wilmont Perry133.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Keith Poole6131040
Andre Hastings37500
Eddie Kennison68441
Lawrence Dawsey58320
Ricky Williams5750

Panthers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Steve Beuerlein22/4132250

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Tim Biakabutuka8243.00
Patrick Jeffers12323.00
Fred Lane4164.00
Steve Beuerlein144.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Patrick Jeffers7141652
Wesley Walls46882
Muhsin Muhammad612451
Tim Biakabutuka44210
Donald Hayes0200
Eric Metcalf0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +8.56.3%7.4%3.2%5.0%3.3%3.0%

Positive margins favour Panthers; negative favour Saints.

Half-point at risk

1.29%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

63.2%

Expected total

45.9est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+3.24
  • Home-field advantage+2.56
  • Quarterback adjustment-0.31
  • Rest differential-0.16
  • Expected margin+5.33