Closing spread
DAL -6.5
Total
37.5
Model margin
+4.8est.
DAL perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Cowboys
- Giants
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.084EPA / play-0.013
- 38.6%Success rate39.6%
- -0.016EPA / dropback+0.043
- -0.207EPA / rush-0.079
- 6.4%Explosive rate9.3%
- 35.7%Third-down rate34.8%
- 50.7%Red-zone TD rate51.1%
- 1.14Points / drive1.25
- 2.8%Turnover rate2.2%
- -0.039EPA / play allowed-0.080
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
DAL lead 32–24 since 1999
NYG have won 2 straight. Meetings average 47.2 points. DAL are 26-29-1 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | NYG–DAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DAL | Q1 15:00 | 3 | 2 | Field goal | 0–3 |
| NYG | Q1 12:42 | 8 | 31 | Punt | 0–3 |
| DAL | Q1 7:18 | 12 | 76 | Field goal | 0–6 |
| NYG | Q1 1:03 | 10 | 47 | Punt | 0–6 |
| DAL | Q2 11:22 | 9 | 80 | Touchdown | 0–13 |
| NYG | Q2 6:35 | 10 | 38 | Punt | 0–13 |
| DAL | Q2 1:50 | 9 | 78 | Field goal | 0–16 |
| NYG | Q2 0:25 | 2 | 9 | Turnover | 0–16 |
| DAL | Q2 0:05 | 1 | -1 | End of half | 0–16 |
| NYG | Q3 15:00 | 3 | 2 | Punt | 0–16 |
| DAL | Q3 13:48 | 4 | 17 | Punt | 0–16 |
| NYG | Q3 11:44 | 12 | 69 | Field goal | 3–16 |
| DAL | Q3 5:24 | 2 | 91 | Touchdown | 3–23 |
| NYG | Q3 4:14 | 8 | 38 | Punt | 3–23 |
| DAL | Q3 1:01 | 10 | 38 | Punt | 3–23 |
| NYG | Q4 11:14 | 4 | 80 | Touchdown | 10–23 |
| DAL | Q4 10:19 | 10 | 57 | Field goal | 10–26 |
| NYG | Q4 4:09 | 14 | 66 | Touchdown | 18–26 |
| NYG | Q4 0:57 | 0 | 0 | Touchdown | 18–26 |
| DAL | Q4 0:57 | 2 | -1 | End of half | 18–26 |
Box score
Individual performances
Giants
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kerry Collins | 30/47 | 316 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joe Montgomery | 12 | 36 | 3.0 | 1 |
| Sean Bennett | 4 | 33 | 8.3 | 0 |
| Tiki Barber | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Kerry Collins | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tiki Barber | 13 | 14 | 100 | 0 |
| Joe Jurevicius | 3 | 4 | 86 | 0 |
| Greg Comella | 5 | 5 | 37 | 0 |
| Ike Hilliard | 5 | 6 | 37 | 0 |
| Amani Toomer | 2 | 5 | 35 | 0 |
| David Patten | 1 | 3 | 14 | 0 |
| Brian Alford | 1 | 4 | 7 | 1 |
| Howard Cross | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
| Mark Thomas | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Cowboys
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Troy Aikman | 23/32 | 288 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Emmitt Smith | 22 | 122 | 5.5 | 0 |
| Chris Warren | 3 | 28 | 9.3 | 0 |
| Troy Aikman | 3 | -2 | -0.7 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jason Tucker | 4 | 8 | 122 | 1 |
| Raghib Ismail | 7 | 10 | 62 | 1 |
| Jeff Ogden | 2 | 2 | 28 | 0 |
| Chris Brazzell | 1 | 1 | 19 | 0 |
| Emmitt Smith | 2 | 2 | 19 | 0 |
| Chris Warren | 3 | 3 | 18 | 0 |
| David LaFleur | 3 | 4 | 17 | 0 |
| Mike Lucky | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Cowboys; negative favour Giants.
Half-point at risk
4.92%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
61.8%
Expected total
43.8est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.05
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.16
- Expected margin+4.77