Closing spread
KC -5
Total
39
Model margin
+3.9est.
KC perspective
Push chance
2.0%est.
Win probability
- Chiefs
- Raiders
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
KC lead 35–19 since 1999
Meetings average 44.3 points. KC are 26-27-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Chiefs
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elvis Grbac | 20/39 | 243 | 3 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bam Morris | 9 | 34 | 3.8 | 0 |
| Mike Cloud | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kevin Lockett | 3 | 3 | 69 | 1 |
| Joe Horn | 4 | 7 | 62 | 1 |
| Tony Gonzalez | 6 | 10 | 56 | 1 |
| Andre Rison | 2 | 3 | 20 | 0 |
| Derrick Alexander | 1 | 8 | 18 | 0 |
| Bam Morris | 1 | 2 | 9 | 0 |
| Lonnie Johnson | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Chiefs; negative favour Raiders.
Half-point at risk
1.97%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
59.4%
Expected total
43.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.29
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+3.85
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.