Closing spread
KC -5
Total
39
Model margin
+3.9est.
KC perspective
Push chance
2.0%est.
Win probability
- Chiefs
- Raiders
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
KC lead 36–19 since 1999
Meetings average 44.5 points. KC are 26-28-1 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | OAK–KC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LV | Q1 15:00 | 3 | 6 | Opp touchdown | 0–7 |
| KC | Q1 13:03 | 0 | 0 | Opp touchdown | 0–7 |
| LV | Q1 13:03 | 1 | 0 | Opp touchdown | 0–14 |
| KC | Q1 12:46 | 0 | 0 | Opp touchdown | 0–14 |
| LV | Q1 12:46 | 4 | 11 | Punt | 0–14 |
| KC | Q1 10:56 | 7 | 46 | Field goal | 0–17 |
| LV | Q1 7:31 | 8 | 15 | Turnover | 0–17 |
| KC | Q1 4:15 | 3 | 3 | Opp touchdown | 7–17 |
| LV | Q1 2:49 | 0 | 0 | Opp touchdown | 7–17 |
| KC | Q1 2:49 | 3 | 3 | Punt | 7–17 |
| LV | Q1 1:23 | 5 | 19 | Punt | 7–17 |
| KC | Q2 14:11 | 3 | 0 | Punt | 7–17 |
| LV | Q2 13:19 | 9 | 54 | Touchdown | 14–17 |
| KC | Q2 8:34 | 4 | 15 | Punt | 14–17 |
| LV | Q2 7:02 | 9 | 47 | Touchdown | 21–17 |
| KC | Q2 3:09 | 12 | 86 | Touchdown | 21–24 |
| LV | Q2 0:54 | 4 | 60 | Touchdown | 28–24 |
| KC | Q2 0:13 | 1 | 10 | End of half | 28–24 |
| KC | Q3 15:00 | 6 | 25 | Punt | 28–24 |
| LV | Q3 12:17 | 3 | 4 | Punt | 28–24 |
| KC | Q3 10:54 | 2 | 0 | Turnover | 28–24 |
| LV | Q3 10:40 | 3 | -6 | Punt | 28–24 |
| KC | Q3 9:27 | 13 | 98 | Touchdown | 28–31 |
| LV | Q3 3:04 | 2 | 68 | Touchdown | 35–31 |
| KC | Q3 2:03 | 4 | 14 | Punt | 35–31 |
| LV | Q4 14:48 | 3 | 0 | Punt | 35–31 |
| KC | Q4 13:22 | 6 | 38 | Punt | 35–31 |
| LV | Q4 9:45 | 3 | -2 | Punt | 35–31 |
| KC | Q4 8:01 | 2 | 40 | Touchdown | 35–38 |
| LV | Q4 7:22 | 3 | 0 | Punt | 35–38 |
| KC | Q4 6:47 | 3 | 6 | Punt | 35–38 |
| LV | Q4 5:10 | 5 | 27 | Punt | 35–38 |
| KC | Q4 3:11 | 3 | 2 | Punt | 35–38 |
| LV | Q4 2:46 | 10 | 60 | Field goal | 38–38 |
| KC | Q4 0:45 | 6 | 43 | Missed field goal | 38–38 |
| LV | OT | 7 | 45 | Field goal | 41–38 |
Box score
Individual performances
Chiefs
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elvis Grbac | 20/39 | 243 | 3 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bam Morris | 9 | 34 | 3.8 | 0 |
| Mike Cloud | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kevin Lockett | 3 | 3 | 69 | 1 |
| Joe Horn | 4 | 7 | 62 | 1 |
| Tony Gonzalez | 6 | 10 | 56 | 1 |
| Andre Rison | 2 | 3 | 20 | 0 |
| Derrick Alexander | 1 | 8 | 18 | 0 |
| Bam Morris | 1 | 2 | 9 | 0 |
| Lonnie Johnson | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Chiefs; negative favour Raiders.
Half-point at risk
1.97%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
59.4%
Expected total
43.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.29
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+3.85
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.