Closing spread
DEN -7
Total
37.5
Model margin
+3.0est.
DEN perspective
Push chance
4.8%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Broncos
- Chargers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
DEN lead 33–23 since 1999
DEN have won 2 straight. Meetings average 43.8 points. DEN are 26-25-5 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | SD–DEN |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DEN | Q1 15:00 | 5 | 25 | Punt | 0–0 |
| LAC | Q1 12:04 | 5 | 30 | Turnover | 0–0 |
| DEN | Q1 10:11 | 3 | -7 | Punt | 0–0 |
| LAC | Q1 8:58 | 6 | 23 | Punt | 0–0 |
| DEN | Q1 5:51 | 8 | 28 | Punt | 0–0 |
| LAC | Q1 2:11 | 1 | 0 | Turnover | 0–0 |
| DEN | Q1 2:04 | 3 | 2 | Punt | 0–0 |
| LAC | Q1 1:04 | 11 | 85 | Touchdown | 6–0 |
| DEN | Q2 11:26 | 1 | 11 | Turnover | 6–0 |
| LAC | Q2 11:08 | 7 | 32 | Field goal | 9–0 |
| DEN | Q2 6:55 | 6 | 14 | Punt | 9–0 |
| LAC | Q2 4:00 | 3 | 0 | Punt | 9–0 |
| DEN | Q2 3:01 | 3 | 4 | Punt | 9–0 |
| LAC | Q2 1:40 | 8 | 70 | Field goal | 12–0 |
| LAC | Q3 15:00 | 3 | -9 | Punt | 12–0 |
| DEN | Q3 13:13 | 11 | 23 | Field goal | 12–3 |
| LAC | Q3 9:00 | 3 | 9 | Punt | 12–3 |
| DEN | Q3 6:58 | 7 | 37 | Punt | 12–3 |
| LAC | Q3 2:56 | 2 | 50 | Turnover | 12–3 |
| DEN | Q3 2:11 | 9 | 45 | Field goal | 12–6 |
| LAC | Q4 13:57 | 9 | 46 | Missed field goal | 12–6 |
| DEN | Q4 9:27 | 3 | 0 | Punt | 12–6 |
| LAC | Q4 8:35 | 3 | 38 | Turnover | 12–6 |
| DEN | Q4 7:03 | 11 | 40 | Turnover on downs | 12–6 |
| LAC | Q4 2:23 | 3 | 3 | Punt | 12–6 |
| DEN | Q4 0:21 | 3 | 13 | End of half | 12–6 |
Box score
Individual performances
Broncos
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brian Griese | 23/44 | 211 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Olandis Gary | 18 | 38 | 2.1 | 0 |
| Brian Griese | 2 | 4 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Howard Griffith | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Derek Loville | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rod Smith | 9 | 14 | 106 | 0 |
| Ed McCaffrey | 6 | 13 | 54 | 0 |
| Byron Chamberlain | 1 | 4 | 14 | 0 |
| Travis McGriff | 1 | 1 | 13 | 0 |
| Olandis Gary | 3 | 5 | 11 | 0 |
| Derek Loville | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
| Howard Griffith | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Broncos; negative favour Chargers.
Half-point at risk
4.78%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
57.0%
Expected total
43.7est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.32
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.08
- Expected margin+2.97
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.