Closing spread
DEN -7
Total
37.5
Model margin
+3.0est.
DEN perspective
Push chance
4.8%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Broncos
- Chargers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
DEN lead 32–23 since 1999
Meetings average 43.9 points. DEN are 25-25-5 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Broncos
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brian Griese | 23/44 | 211 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Olandis Gary | 18 | 38 | 2.1 | 0 |
| Brian Griese | 2 | 4 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Howard Griffith | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Derek Loville | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rod Smith | 9 | 14 | 106 | 0 |
| Ed McCaffrey | 6 | 13 | 54 | 0 |
| Byron Chamberlain | 1 | 4 | 14 | 0 |
| Travis McGriff | 1 | 1 | 13 | 0 |
| Olandis Gary | 3 | 5 | 11 | 0 |
| Derek Loville | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
| Howard Griffith | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Broncos; negative favour Chargers.
Half-point at risk
4.78%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
57.0%
Expected total
43.7est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.32
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.08
- Expected margin+2.97
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.