Closing spread
ATL -6.5
Total
46.5
Model margin
+3.3est.
ATL perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Falcons
- 49ers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.036EPA / play-0.094
- 41.7%Success rate38.5%
- -0.026EPA / dropback-0.017
- -0.054EPA / rush-0.220
- 8.5%Explosive rate7.2%
- 34.4%Third-down rate35.1%
- 42.7%Red-zone TD rate54.7%
- 1.14Points / drive1.22
- 2.8%Turnover rate3.3%
- +0.079EPA / play allowed+0.013
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
All square 9–9 since 1999
Meetings average 44.7 points. ATL are 8-10 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
49ers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jeff Garcia | 26/33 | 373 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Travis Jervey | 4 | 43 | 10.8 | 1 |
| Jeff Garcia | 6 | 36 | 6.0 | 1 |
| Terry Jackson | 5 | 35 | 7.0 | 0 |
| Charlie Garner | 9 | 29 | 3.2 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jerry Rice | 6 | 9 | 143 | 0 |
| J.J. Stokes | 5 | 7 | 130 | 1 |
| Terrell Owens | 5 | 5 | 31 | 1 |
| Tai Streets | 2 | 3 | 25 | 0 |
| Greg Clark | 1 | 1 | 18 | 0 |
| Terry Jackson | 2 | 2 | 3 | 0 |
| Travis Jervey | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
Falcons
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Chandler | 19/36 | 306 | 3 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Byron Hanspard | 16 | 27 | 1.7 | 0 |
| Chris Chandler | 2 | 2 | 1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tim Dwight | 7 | 9 | 162 | 2 |
| Terance Mathis | 5 | 11 | 69 | 1 |
| O.J. Santiago | 3 | 4 | 37 | 0 |
| Jammi German | 1 | 3 | 17 | 0 |
| Winslow Oliver | 1 | 2 | 10 | 0 |
| Byron Hanspard | 1 | 2 | 4 | 0 |
| Eugene Baker | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Falcons; negative favour 49ers.
Half-point at risk
4.82%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
58.0%
Expected total
47.1est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.75
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+3.32