1999 · Week 17 · Division
Final
Soldier Field · outdoors · grass · 54°F · wind 14mph
Closing spread
TB -3.5
Total
34
Model margin
-0.7est.
CHI perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Bears
- Buccaneers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.149EPA / play-0.102
- 35.1%Success rate38.6%
- -0.110EPA / dropback-0.043
- -0.193EPA / rush-0.228
- 7.7%Explosive rate7.4%
- 35.3%Third-down rate37.0%
- 37.2%Red-zone TD rate44.0%
- 1.03Points / drive1.03
- 3.3%Turnover rate3.1%
- -0.164EPA / play allowed-0.001
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
All square 10–10 since 1999
TB have won 2 straight. Meetings average 37.4 points. CHI are 10-10 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | TB–CHI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TB | Q1 15:00 | 6 | 23 | Punt | 0–0 |
| CHI | Q1 10:40 | 3 | 14 | Punt | 0–0 |
| TB | Q1 8:58 | 5 | 19 | Punt | 0–0 |
| CHI | Q1 5:29 | 3 | 1 | Punt | 0–0 |
| TB | Q1 4:04 | 3 | 2 | Punt | 0–0 |
| CHI | Q1 3:00 | 5 | 21 | Punt | 0–0 |
| TB | Q1 1:14 | 6 | 41 | Punt | 0–0 |
| CHI | Q2 12:41 | 5 | 23 | Punt | 0–0 |
| TB | Q2 10:06 | 5 | 23 | Punt | 0–0 |
| CHI | Q2 6:42 | 2 | 0 | Turnover | 0–0 |
| TB | Q2 5:55 | 6 | 22 | Field goal | 3–0 |
| CHI | Q2 2:16 | 4 | -6 | Turnover | 3–0 |
| TB | Q2 1:47 | 4 | 14 | Touchdown | 10–0 |
| CHI | Q2 0:16 | 1 | 2 | End of half | 10–0 |
| CHI | Q3 15:00 | 3 | 5 | Punt | 10–0 |
| TB | Q3 13:31 | 4 | 30 | Missed field goal | 10–0 |
| CHI | Q3 10:38 | 7 | 39 | Field goal | 10–3 |
| TB | Q3 6:46 | 9 | 56 | Field goal | 13–3 |
| CHI | Q3 2:15 | 9 | 57 | Field goal | 13–6 |
| TB | Q4 13:24 | 9 | 80 | Touchdown | 20–6 |
| CHI | Q4 7:33 | 10 | 41 | Turnover on downs | 20–6 |
| TB | Q4 3:48 | 3 | 8 | Punt | 20–6 |
| CHI | Q4 3:19 | 4 | 0 | Turnover on downs | 20–6 |
| TB | Q4 2:56 | 4 | 1 | Turnover on downs | 20–6 |
| CHI | Q4 1:11 | 6 | 60 | Turnover on downs | 20–6 |
| TB | Q4 0:15 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 20–6 |
Box score
Individual performances
Buccaneers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shaun King | 18/24 | 178 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Warrick Dunn | 16 | 80 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Shaun King | 2 | -1 | -0.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jacquez Green | 10 | 14 | 113 | 0 |
| Bert Emanuel | 1 | 2 | 22 | 0 |
| Darnell McDonald | 1 | 1 | 15 | 0 |
| Dave Moore | 1 | 1 | 6 | 1 |
| Warrick Dunn | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
Bears
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cade McNown | 20/42 | 196 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| James Allen | 12 | 43 | 3.6 | 0 |
| Cade McNown | 5 | 29 | 5.8 | 0 |
| Glyn Milburn | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marcus Robinson | 7 | 13 | 84 | 0 |
| Bobby Engram | 3 | 9 | 32 | 0 |
| Marty Booker | 4 | 7 | 29 | 0 |
| James Allen | 3 | 5 | 26 | 0 |
| Ryan Wetnight | 3 | 6 | 25 | 0 |
| Glyn Milburn | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Bears; negative favour Buccaneers.
Half-point at risk
7.42%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
47.1%
Expected total
42.4est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.18
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment-1.10
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-0.72