1999 · Week 17 · Division

Final

Titans

Tennessee

QB Steve McNair

47·36

Steelers

Pittsburgh

QB Mike Tomczak

Three Rivers Stadium · outdoors · astroturf · 70°F · wind 23mph

Closing spread

TEN -4

Total

38

Model margin

+3.3est.

PIT perspective

Push chance

2.2%est.

the line sits on a key number

Win probability

  • Steelers
  • Titans

How each play moved the game.

Steelers winsTitans wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Titansedge mapSteelers
  • +0.007EPA / play-0.063
  • 40.1%Success rate41.6%
  • +0.067EPA / dropback-0.073
  • -0.083EPA / rush-0.048
  • 8.5%Explosive rate6.4%
  • 39.0%Third-down rate37.4%
  • 58.0%Red-zone TD rate52.5%
  • 1.52Points / drive1.27
  • 2.1%Turnover rate2.2%
  • -0.042EPA / play allowed-0.045

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

PIT lead 11–10 since 1999

PIT have won 5 straight. Meetings average 44 points. PIT are 12-9 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2023 · W9TEN @ PIT16–20PIT
2021 · W15TEN @ PIT13–19PIT
2020 · W7PIT @ TEN27–24PIT
2017 · W11TEN @ PIT17–40PIT
2014 · W11PIT @ TEN27–24PIT
2013 · W1TEN @ PIT16–9TEN
2012 · W6PIT @ TEN23–26TEN
2011 · W5TEN @ PIT17–38PIT

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultTEN–PIT
PITQ1 15:0037Punt0–0
TENQ1 13:16744Touchdown7–0
PITQ1 9:3633Punt7–0
TENQ1 8:25527Punt7–0
PITQ1 5:29661Touchdown7–7
TENQ1 2:59831Punt7–7
PITQ2 13:3739Punt7–7
TENQ2 12:02875Touchdown14–7
PITQ2 8:02853Turnover on downs14–7
TENQ2 4:203-2Punt14–7
PITQ2 2:31212Turnover14–7
TENQ2 1:48347Touchdown21–7
PITQ2 1:111-6Opp touchdown28–7
TENQ2 1:0100Opp touchdown28–7
PITQ2 1:0148Turnover on downs31–7
TENQ2 0:1400Field goal31–7
PITQ2 0:0900End of half31–7
TENQ3 15:00341Turnover31–7
PITQ3 13:12766Touchdown31–15
TENQ3 9:183-6Punt33–15
PITQ3 7:291-8Safety33–15
TENQ3 7:24764Touchdown40–15
PITQ3 2:56447Touchdown40–22
TENQ3 1:391-8Opp touchdown40–29
PITQ3 1:2600Opp touchdown40–29
TENQ3 1:2623Turnover40–29
PITQ3 0:2464Turnover on downs40–29
TENQ4 12:4531Punt40–29
PITQ4 11:4120Turnover40–29
TENQ4 11:31827Punt40–29
PITQ4 6:35769Opp touchdown47–29
TENQ4 3:5900Opp touchdown47–29
PITQ4 3:59976Touchdown47–36
TENQ4 1:4200Turnover on downs47–36
PITQ4 1:42633Turnover on downs47–36
TENQ4 0:3000End of half47–36

Box score

Individual performances

Titans

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Neil O'Donnell6/1210921
Steve McNair9/1110710

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Rodney Thomas21954.51
Eddie George8324.00
Steve McNair2147.00
Neil O'Donnell2-1-0.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Frank Wycheck57802
Yancey Thigpen45500
Kevin Dyson24340
Isaac Byrd22250
Michael Roan11241
Chris Sanders1330

Steelers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Mike Tomczak21/3930921

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Richard Huntley11787.11
Jerome Bettis15614.11
Mike Tomczak2-1-0.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Bobby Shaw7101311
Hines Ward613681
Matt Cushing22290
Troy Edwards35270
Richard Huntley12110
Malcolm Johnson1350
Jerome Bettis0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -43.8%6.8%7.5%3.1%4.8%3.1%

Positive margins favour Steelers; negative favour Titans.

Half-point at risk

2.24%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

57.8%

Expected total

45.4est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.70
  • Home-field advantage+2.56
  • Quarterback adjustment+3.40
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+3.26