Closing spread
TEN -4
Total
38
Model margin
+3.3est.
PIT perspective
Push chance
2.2%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Steelers
- Titans
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.007EPA / play-0.063
- 40.1%Success rate41.6%
- +0.067EPA / dropback-0.073
- -0.083EPA / rush-0.048
- 8.5%Explosive rate6.4%
- 39.0%Third-down rate37.4%
- 58.0%Red-zone TD rate52.5%
- 1.52Points / drive1.27
- 2.1%Turnover rate2.2%
- -0.042EPA / play allowed-0.045
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
PIT lead 11–10 since 1999
PIT have won 5 straight. Meetings average 44 points. PIT are 12-9 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Titans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Neil O'Donnell | 6/12 | 109 | 2 | 1 |
| Steve McNair | 9/11 | 107 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rodney Thomas | 21 | 95 | 4.5 | 1 |
| Eddie George | 8 | 32 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Steve McNair | 2 | 14 | 7.0 | 0 |
| Neil O'Donnell | 2 | -1 | -0.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Frank Wycheck | 5 | 7 | 80 | 2 |
| Yancey Thigpen | 4 | 5 | 50 | 0 |
| Kevin Dyson | 2 | 4 | 34 | 0 |
| Isaac Byrd | 2 | 2 | 25 | 0 |
| Michael Roan | 1 | 1 | 24 | 1 |
| Chris Sanders | 1 | 3 | 3 | 0 |
Steelers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mike Tomczak | 21/39 | 309 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Richard Huntley | 11 | 78 | 7.1 | 1 |
| Jerome Bettis | 15 | 61 | 4.1 | 1 |
| Mike Tomczak | 2 | -1 | -0.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bobby Shaw | 7 | 10 | 131 | 1 |
| Hines Ward | 6 | 13 | 68 | 1 |
| Matt Cushing | 2 | 2 | 29 | 0 |
| Troy Edwards | 3 | 5 | 27 | 0 |
| Richard Huntley | 1 | 2 | 11 | 0 |
| Malcolm Johnson | 1 | 3 | 5 | 0 |
| Jerome Bettis | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Steelers; negative favour Titans.
Half-point at risk
2.24%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
57.8%
Expected total
45.4est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.70
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment+3.40
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+3.26