Closing spread
MIN -7
Total
46.5
Model margin
+2.4est.
MIN perspective
Push chance
4.7%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Vikings
- Cowboys
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.013EPA / play+0.042
- 39.6%Success rate44.6%
- +0.043EPA / dropback+0.128
- -0.079EPA / rush-0.092
- 9.3%Explosive rate10.9%
- 34.8%Third-down rate44.4%
- 51.1%Red-zone TD rate57.8%
- 1.25Points / drive1.72
- 2.2%Turnover rate3.4%
- -0.080EPA / play allowed-0.008
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
MIN lead 8–6 since 1999
Meetings average 44.8 points. MIN are 10-4 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | DAL–MIN |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DAL | Q1 15:00 | 7 | 73 | Field goal | 3–0 |
| MIN | Q1 11:09 | 3 | 3 | Punt | 3–0 |
| MIN | Q1 9:58 | 4 | 11 | Field goal | 3–3 |
| DAL | Q1 7:59 | 8 | 79 | Touchdown | 10–3 |
| MIN | Q1 5:00 | 12 | 48 | Punt | 10–3 |
| DAL | Q2 13:05 | 3 | 3 | Turnover | 10–3 |
| MIN | Q2 11:44 | 5 | 38 | Touchdown | 10–10 |
| DAL | Q2 9:21 | 3 | 2 | Punt | 10–10 |
| MIN | Q2 8:10 | 6 | 16 | Punt | 10–10 |
| DAL | Q2 4:41 | 4 | 15 | Punt | 10–10 |
| MIN | Q2 2:26 | 6 | 82 | Touchdown | 10–17 |
| DAL | Q2 0:28 | 3 | 23 | Missed field goal | 10–17 |
| MIN | Q2 0:03 | 1 | 0 | End of half | 10–17 |
| MIN | Q3 15:00 | 6 | 20 | Punt | 10–17 |
| DAL | Q3 11:53 | 8 | 54 | Punt | 10–17 |
| MIN | Q3 8:11 | 9 | 60 | Field goal | 10–20 |
| DAL | Q3 3:10 | 3 | 2 | Punt | 10–20 |
| MIN | Q3 1:29 | 7 | 67 | Touchdown | 10–27 |
| DAL | Q4 12:40 | 9 | 74 | Turnover | 10–27 |
| MIN | Q4 8:47 | 5 | 20 | Punt | 10–27 |
| DAL | Q4 6:22 | 9 | 64 | Turnover | 10–27 |
| MIN | Q4 3:37 | 5 | 9 | End of half | 10–27 |
Box score
Individual performances
Cowboys
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Troy Aikman | 22/37 | 286 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Emmitt Smith | 15 | 99 | 6.6 | 1 |
| Chris Warren | 1 | 12 | 12.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raghib Ismail | 8 | 11 | 163 | 0 |
| Jason Tucker | 4 | 6 | 67 | 0 |
| David LaFleur | 3 | 4 | 22 | 0 |
| Emmitt Smith | 1 | 2 | 14 | 0 |
| Chris Brazzell | 2 | 7 | 12 | 0 |
| Jeff Ogden | 1 | 2 | 4 | 0 |
| Chris Warren | 1 | 3 | 4 | 0 |
Vikings
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jeff George | 12/25 | 212 | 3 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Robert Smith | 28 | 140 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Leroy Hoard | 6 | 31 | 5.2 | 0 |
| Jeff George | 1 | 8 | 8.0 | 0 |
| Randall Cunningham | 3 | -4 | -1.3 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Randy Moss | 5 | 6 | 127 | 1 |
| Robert Smith | 3 | 3 | 58 | 1 |
| Leroy Hoard | 2 | 3 | 15 | 0 |
| Jimmy Kleinsasser | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 |
| Cris Carter | 1 | 7 | 5 | 1 |
| Andrew Glover | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Jake Reed | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Vikings; negative favour Cowboys.
Half-point at risk
4.72%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
55.5%
Expected total
44.2est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.17
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+2.39