Closing spread
SEA -3.5
Total
39
Model margin
+2.8est.
SEA perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Seahawks
- Dolphins
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.116EPA / play-0.070
- 37.3%Success rate39.0%
- -0.071EPA / dropback+0.010
- -0.186EPA / rush-0.193
- 8.0%Explosive rate8.7%
- 34.2%Third-down rate33.0%
- 42.4%Red-zone TD rate48.6%
- 1.17Points / drive1.40
- 2.9%Turnover rate3.0%
- -0.102EPA / play allowed-0.076
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
MIA lead 5–4 since 1999
SEA have won 3 straight. Meetings average 37 points. SEA are 3-6 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | MIA–SEA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SEA | Q1 15:00 | 6 | 28 | Punt | 0–0 |
| MIA | Q1 11:54 | 3 | 0 | Punt | 0–0 |
| SEA | Q1 9:53 | 8 | 47 | Touchdown | 0–7 |
| MIA | Q1 6:18 | 6 | 37 | Field goal | 3–7 |
| SEA | Q1 2:05 | 3 | 6 | Punt | 3–7 |
| MIA | Q1 0:43 | 9 | 27 | Punt | 3–7 |
| SEA | Q2 11:28 | 6 | 24 | Turnover | 3–7 |
| MIA | Q2 8:28 | 3 | -3 | Punt | 3–7 |
| SEA | Q2 7:27 | 3 | 0 | Punt | 3–7 |
| MIA | Q2 5:59 | 3 | 9 | Punt | 3–7 |
| SEA | Q2 4:30 | 7 | 34 | Field goal | 3–10 |
| MIA | Q2 0:45 | 2 | -1 | End of half | 3–10 |
| MIA | Q3 15:00 | 10 | 60 | Touchdown | 10–16 |
| SEA | Q3 8:55 | 0 | 0 | Touchdown | 10–17 |
| MIA | Q3 8:55 | 5 | 11 | Punt | 10–17 |
| SEA | Q3 6:53 | 3 | 0 | Punt | 10–17 |
| MIA | Q3 5:34 | 5 | 32 | Field goal | 13–17 |
| SEA | Q3 2:22 | 0 | 0 | Punt | 13–17 |
| MIA | Q3 2:22 | 4 | 21 | Punt | 13–17 |
| SEA | Q3 0:18 | 5 | 2 | Punt | 13–17 |
| MIA | Q4 14:03 | 4 | 23 | Punt | 13–17 |
| SEA | Q4 12:35 | 6 | 21 | Punt | 13–17 |
| MIA | Q4 9:09 | 11 | 90 | Touchdown | 20–17 |
| SEA | Q4 4:48 | 3 | -8 | Punt | 20–17 |
| MIA | Q4 2:52 | 3 | -6 | Punt | 20–17 |
| SEA | Q4 1:05 | 7 | 17 | Turnover | 20–17 |
| MIA | Q4 0:23 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 20–17 |
Box score
Individual performances
Dolphins
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dan Marino | 17/30 | 196 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.J. Johnson | 27 | 86 | 3.2 | 1 |
| Autry Denson | 7 | 19 | 2.7 | 0 |
| Stanley Pritchett | 2 | 4 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Dan Marino | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| O.J. McDuffie | 5 | 6 | 82 | 0 |
| Tony Martin | 5 | 12 | 70 | 0 |
| Oronde Gadsden | 2 | 4 | 25 | 1 |
| Hunter Goodwin | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
| J.J. Johnson | 2 | 3 | 3 | 0 |
| Ed Perry | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
| Stanley Pritchett | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Seahawks
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jon Kitna | 14/30 | 162 | 1 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ricky Watters | 19 | 40 | 2.1 | 0 |
| Jon Kitna | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sean Dawkins | 3 | 8 | 35 | 1 |
| Mike Pritchard | 3 | 4 | 34 | 0 |
| Christian Fauria | 3 | 4 | 31 | 0 |
| Joey Galloway | 1 | 7 | 22 | 0 |
| Ricky Watters | 2 | 3 | 22 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Seahawks; negative favour Dolphins.
Half-point at risk
2.54%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
56.6%
Expected total
42.6est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.23
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+2.80