Closing spread
MIA -2
Total
36
Model margin
+4.8est.
MIA perspective
Push chance
2.1%est.
Win probability
- Dolphins
- Seahawks
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.051EPA / play-0.033
- 40.0%Success rate38.4%
- -0.026EPA / dropback+0.081
- -0.089EPA / rush-0.150
- 6.6%Explosive rate7.5%
- 40.9%Third-down rate34.3%
- 52.9%Red-zone TD rate58.5%
- 1.33Points / drive1.52
- 3.4%Turnover rate2.6%
- +0.074EPA / play allowed-0.111
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
MIA lead 5–4 since 1999
SEA have won 3 straight. Meetings average 37 points. MIA are 6-3 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Seahawks
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jon Kitna | 6/15 | 54 | 0 | 4 |
| Brock Huard | 4/9 | 30 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ricky Watters | 11 | 59 | 5.4 | 0 |
| Jon Kitna | 2 | 5 | 2.5 | 0 |
| Shaun Alexander | 2 | 5 | 2.5 | 0 |
| Brock Huard | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
| James Williams | 1 | -5 | -5.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ricky Watters | 3 | 5 | 32 | 0 |
| Darrell Jackson | 2 | 6 | 15 | 0 |
| Itula Mili | 1 | 1 | 10 | 0 |
| Derrick Mayes | 1 | 2 | 9 | 0 |
| James Williams | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 |
| Sean Dawkins | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
| Charlie Rogers | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Shaun Alexander | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Dolphins
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jay Fiedler | 15/24 | 134 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lamar Smith | 27 | 145 | 5.4 | 1 |
| Jay Fiedler | 3 | 9 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Thurman Thomas | 3 | 9 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Bert Emanuel | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Leslie Shepherd | 3 | 4 | 30 | 0 |
| Thurman Thomas | 3 | 4 | 22 | 0 |
| Oronde Gadsden | 2 | 3 | 21 | 1 |
| Tony Martin | 2 | 7 | 19 | 0 |
| Bert Emanuel | 1 | 2 | 16 | 0 |
| Lamar Smith | 1 | 1 | 12 | 0 |
| Hunter Goodwin | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Dolphins; negative favour Seahawks.
Half-point at risk
2.10%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
61.8%
Expected total
45.6est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.21
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+4.77