2000 · Week 1

Final

Seahawks

Seattle

QB Jon Kitna

0·23

Dolphins

Miami

QB Jay Fiedler

Pro Player Stadium · outdoors · grass · 89°F · wind 13mph

Closing spread

MIA -2

Total

36

Model margin

+4.8est.

MIA perspective

Push chance

2.1%est.

Win probability

  • Dolphins
  • Seahawks

How each play moved the game.

Dolphins winsSeahawks wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Seahawksedge mapDolphins
  • -0.051EPA / play-0.033
  • 40.0%Success rate38.4%
  • -0.026EPA / dropback+0.081
  • -0.089EPA / rush-0.150
  • 6.6%Explosive rate7.5%
  • 40.9%Third-down rate34.3%
  • 52.9%Red-zone TD rate58.5%
  • 1.33Points / drive1.52
  • 3.4%Turnover rate2.6%
  • +0.074EPA / play allowed-0.111

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

MIA lead 5–4 since 1999

SEA have won 3 straight. Meetings average 37 points. MIA are 6-3 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2024 · W3MIA @ SEA3–24SEA
2020 · W4SEA @ MIA31–23SEA
2016 · W1MIA @ SEA10–12SEA
2012 · W12SEA @ MIA21–24MIA
2008 · W10SEA @ MIA19–21MIA
2004 · W11MIA @ SEA17–24SEA
2001 · W7MIA @ SEA24–20MIA
1999 · playoffsMIA @ SEA20–17MIA

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultSEA–MIA
MIAQ1 15:001370Touchdown0–7
SEAQ1 7:43515Turnover0–7
MIAQ1 5:21735Field goal0–10
SEAQ1 1:22417Turnover0–10
MIAQ2 14:5031Field goal0–13
SEAQ2 13:5410Turnover0–13
MIAQ2 13:39514Field goal0–16
SEAQ2 10:51522Turnover0–16
MIAQ2 8:1739Punt0–16
SEAQ2 6:21647Missed field goal0–16
MIAQ2 3:27768Touchdown0–23
SEAQ2 0:43311Turnover0–23
SEAQ3 15:0030Punt0–23
MIAQ3 13:49249Turnover0–23
SEAQ3 13:103-2Punt0–23
MIAQ3 11:3135Punt0–23
SEAQ3 9:5030Punt0–23
MIAQ3 7:5633Punt0–23
SEAQ3 6:3639Punt0–23
MIAQ3 5:3654Punt0–23
MIAQ3 2:08826Punt0–23
SEAQ4 11:5544Punt0–23
MIAQ4 9:4237Punt0–23
SEAQ4 7:37417Punt0–23
MIAQ4 4:59616Punt0–23
SEAQ4 1:3843Turnover on downs0–23
MIAQ4 0:5321End of half0–23

Box score

Individual performances

Seahawks

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jon Kitna6/155404
Brock Huard4/93000

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Ricky Watters11595.40
Jon Kitna252.50
Shaun Alexander252.50
Brock Huard144.00
James Williams1-5-5.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Ricky Watters35320
Darrell Jackson26150
Itula Mili11100
Derrick Mayes1290
James Williams1190
Sean Dawkins0300
Charlie Rogers0100
Shaun Alexander0200

Dolphins

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jay Fiedler15/2413410

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Lamar Smith271455.41
Jay Fiedler393.00
Thurman Thomas393.00
Bert Emanuel1-1-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Leslie Shepherd34300
Thurman Thomas34220
Oronde Gadsden23211
Tony Martin27190
Bert Emanuel12160
Lamar Smith11120
Hunter Goodwin1180

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +23.5%6.5%7.5%3.2%4.9%3.2%3.0%

Positive margins favour Dolphins; negative favour Seahawks.

Half-point at risk

2.10%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

61.8%

Expected total

45.6est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.21
  • Home-field advantage+2.56
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+4.77