Closing spread
MIA -9
Total
41.5
Model margin
+4.1est.
MIA perspective
Push chance
1.3%est.
Win probability
- Dolphins
- Seahawks
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.057EPA / play+0.084
- 37.8%Success rate46.3%
- -0.022EPA / dropback+0.181
- -0.103EPA / rush-0.039
- 7.7%Explosive rate8.6%
- -5.09CPOE+4.74
- 31.4%Third-down rate37.1%
- 54.9%Red-zone TD rate69.4%
- 1.56Points / drive1.69
- 2.5%Turnover rate1.2%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
MIA lead 5–4 since 1999
SEA have won 3 straight. Meetings average 37 points. MIA are 6-3 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | SEA–MIA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIA | Q1 15:00 | 11 | 90 | Touchdown | 0–7 |
| SEA | Q1 8:50 | 10 | 33 | Punt | 0–7 |
| MIA | Q1 2:51 | 6 | 76 | Touchdown | 0–14 |
| SEA | Q2 14:52 | 7 | 31 | Punt | 0–14 |
| MIA | Q2 10:47 | 6 | 12 | Opp touchdown | 7–14 |
| MIA | Q2 8:21 | 3 | 7 | Punt | 7–14 |
| SEA | Q2 6:12 | 8 | 31 | Punt | 7–14 |
| MIA | Q2 3:24 | 3 | 7 | Punt | 7–14 |
| SEA | Q2 2:07 | 5 | 20 | Punt | 7–14 |
| MIA | Q2 0:57 | 7 | 51 | End of half | 7–14 |
| SEA | Q3 15:00 | 8 | 31 | Field goal | 10–14 |
| MIA | Q3 11:06 | 5 | 20 | Punt | 10–14 |
| SEA | Q3 7:45 | 8 | 48 | Field goal | 13–14 |
| MIA | Q3 3:31 | 4 | 13 | Punt | 13–14 |
| SEA | Q3 1:28 | 5 | 21 | Punt | 13–14 |
| MIA | Q4 14:44 | 16 | 79 | Touchdown | 13–21 |
| SEA | Q4 5:38 | 6 | 55 | Touchdown | 19–21 |
| MIA | Q4 2:57 | 3 | 7 | Punt | 19–21 |
| SEA | Q4 1:50 | 7 | 28 | Turnover on downs | 19–21 |
| MIA | Q4 0:18 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 19–21 |
Box score
Individual performances
Seahawks
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Seneca Wallace | 21/38 | 185 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Julius Jones | 16 | 88 | 5.5 | 0 |
| Maurice Morris | 1 | 11 | 11.0 | 0 |
| Seneca Wallace | 2 | 9 | 4.5 | 0 |
| T.J. Duckett | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Dolphins
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chad Pennington | 22/36 | 209 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ricky Williams | 12 | 105 | 8.8 | 1 |
| Ronnie Brown | 10 | 39 | 3.9 | 1 |
| Greg Camarillo | 1 | 6 | 6.0 | 0 |
| Chad Pennington | 2 | 1 | 0.5 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Dolphins; negative favour Seahawks.
Half-point at risk
1.26%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
60.1%
Expected total
45.4est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.66
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+4.14