2008 · Week 10

Final

Seahawks

Seattle

QB Seneca Wallace

19·21

Dolphins

Miami

QB Chad Pennington

Dolphin Stadium · outdoors · grass · 78°F · wind 15mph

Closing spread

MIA -9

Total

41.5

Model margin

+4.1est.

MIA perspective

Push chance

1.3%est.

Win probability

  • Dolphins
  • Seahawks

How each play moved the game.

Dolphins winsSeahawks wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Seahawksedge mapDolphins
  • -0.057EPA / play+0.084
  • 37.8%Success rate46.3%
  • -0.022EPA / dropback+0.181
  • -0.103EPA / rush-0.039
  • 7.7%Explosive rate8.6%
  • -5.09CPOE+4.74
  • 31.4%Third-down rate37.1%
  • 54.9%Red-zone TD rate69.4%
  • 1.56Points / drive1.69
  • 2.5%Turnover rate1.2%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

MIA lead 5–4 since 1999

SEA have won 3 straight. Meetings average 37 points. MIA are 6-3 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2024 · W3MIA @ SEA3–24SEA
2020 · W4SEA @ MIA31–23SEA
2016 · W1MIA @ SEA10–12SEA
2012 · W12SEA @ MIA21–24MIA
2004 · W11MIA @ SEA17–24SEA
2001 · W7MIA @ SEA24–20MIA
2000 · W1SEA @ MIA0–23MIA
1999 · playoffsMIA @ SEA20–17MIA

Box score

Individual performances

Seahawks

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Seneca Wallace21/3818510

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Julius Jones16885.50
Maurice Morris11111.00
Seneca Wallace294.50
T.J. Duckett1-1-1.00

Dolphins

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Chad Pennington22/3620911

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Ricky Williams121058.81
Ronnie Brown10393.91
Greg Camarillo166.00
Chad Pennington210.50

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +96.6%7.5%3.2%4.9%3.2%2.9%

Positive margins favour Dolphins; negative favour Seahawks.

Half-point at risk

1.26%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

60.1%

Expected total

45.4est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.66
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+4.14