Closing spread
SEA -4.5
Total
55
Model margin
+5.8est.
MIA perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Dolphins
- Seahawks
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.105EPA / play+0.026
- 48.8%Success rate46.8%
- +0.164EPA / dropback+0.115
- -0.013EPA / rush-0.124
- 8.6%Explosive rate7.0%
- +6.78CPOE+1.23
- 39.6%Third-down rate38.5%
- 72.6%Red-zone TD rate59.1%
- 2.52Points / drive1.99
- 1.7%Turnover rate1.9%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
MIA lead 5–4 since 1999
SEA have won 3 straight. Meetings average 37 points. MIA are 6-3 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Seahawks
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Russell Wilson | 24/34 | 360 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Carson | 16 | 80 | 5.0 | 2 |
| DeeJay Dallas | 2 | 8 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Russell Wilson | 4 | 5 | 1.3 | 0 |
| Travis Homer | 4 | 5 | 1.3 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DK Metcalf | 4 | 6 | 106 | 0 |
| David Moore | 3 | 4 | 95 | 1 |
| Tyler Lockett | 2 | 4 | 39 | 0 |
| Greg Olsen | 5 | 7 | 35 | 0 |
| Freddie Swain | 2 | 3 | 32 | 0 |
| Chris Carson | 3 | 4 | 20 | 0 |
| Will Dissly | 2 | 2 | 15 | 0 |
| DeeJay Dallas | 2 | 2 | 15 | 0 |
| Travis Homer | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 |
Dolphins
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan Fitzpatrick | 29/45 | 315 | 0 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan Fitzpatrick | 6 | 47 | 7.8 | 1 |
| Myles Gaskin | 10 | 40 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Matt Breida | 3 | 9 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Lynn Bowden | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Jordan Howard | 2 | 2 | 1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DeVante Parker | 10 | 12 | 110 | 0 |
| Isaiah Ford | 4 | 10 | 48 | 0 |
| Matt Breida | 3 | 3 | 39 | 0 |
| Jakeem Grant | 3 | 5 | 36 | 0 |
| Durham Smythe | 2 | 2 | 30 | 0 |
| Myles Gaskin | 3 | 4 | 22 | 0 |
| Mike Gesicki | 1 | 3 | 15 | 0 |
| Preston Williams | 1 | 3 | 15 | 0 |
| Adam Shaheen | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Jordan Howard | 1 | 1 | -3 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Dolphins; negative favour Seahawks.
Half-point at risk
2.01%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
64.5%
Expected total
41.4est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.05
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment+3.93
- Rest differential+0.24
- Expected margin+5.83