2020 · Week 4

Final

Seahawks

Seattle

QB Russell Wilson

31·23

Dolphins

Miami

QB Ryan Fitzpatrick

Hard Rock Stadium · outdoors · grass · 86°F · wind 13mph

Closing spread

SEA -4.5

Total

55

Model margin

+5.8est.

MIA perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Seahawks

Dolphins

Win probability

  • Dolphins
  • Seahawks

How each play moved the game.

Dolphins winsSeahawks wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Seahawksedge mapDolphins
  • +0.105EPA / play+0.026
  • 48.8%Success rate46.8%
  • +0.164EPA / dropback+0.115
  • -0.013EPA / rush-0.124
  • 8.6%Explosive rate7.0%
  • +6.78CPOE+1.23
  • 39.6%Third-down rate38.5%
  • 72.6%Red-zone TD rate59.1%
  • 2.52Points / drive1.99
  • 1.7%Turnover rate1.9%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

MIA lead 5–4 since 1999

SEA have won 3 straight. Meetings average 37 points. MIA are 6-3 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2024 · W3MIA @ SEA3–24SEA
2016 · W1MIA @ SEA10–12SEA
2012 · W12SEA @ MIA21–24MIA
2008 · W10SEA @ MIA19–21MIA
2004 · W11MIA @ SEA17–24SEA
2001 · W7MIA @ SEA24–20MIA
2000 · W1SEA @ MIA0–23MIA
1999 · playoffsMIA @ SEA20–17MIA

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultSEA–MIA
MIAQ1 15:00417Turnover0–0
SEAQ1 12:52657Touchdown7–0
SEAQ1 10:0000Touchdown7–0
MIAQ1 10:0038Punt7–0
SEAQ1 8:14422Punt7–0
MIAQ1 6:35964Field goal7–3
SEAQ1 2:33639Field goal10–3
MIAQ1 0:07764Field goal10–6
SEAQ2 11:241363Turnover on downs10–6
MIAQ2 4:45948Field goal10–9
SEAQ2 0:24475Touchdown17–9
MIAQ2 0:0300End of half17–9
SEAQ3 15:001258Turnover17–9
MIAQ3 9:56955Field goal17–12
SEAQ3 4:07412Punt17–12
MIAQ3 1:301773Field goal17–15
SEAQ4 8:31675Touchdown24–15
MIAQ4 5:24411Turnover24–15
SEAQ4 4:16233Touchdown31–15
MIAQ4 4:00875Touchdown31–23
SEAQ4 1:50310End of half31–23

Box score

Individual performances

Seahawks

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Russell Wilson24/3436021

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Chris Carson16805.02
DeeJay Dallas284.00
Russell Wilson451.30
Travis Homer451.30

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
DK Metcalf461060
David Moore34951
Tyler Lockett24390
Greg Olsen57350
Freddie Swain23320
Chris Carson34200
Will Dissly22150
DeeJay Dallas22150
Travis Homer1131

Dolphins

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Ryan Fitzpatrick29/4531502

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Ryan Fitzpatrick6477.81
Myles Gaskin10404.00
Matt Breida393.00
Lynn Bowden155.00
Jordan Howard221.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
DeVante Parker10121100
Isaiah Ford410480
Matt Breida33390
Jakeem Grant35360
Durham Smythe22300
Myles Gaskin34220
Mike Gesicki13150
Preston Williams13150
Adam Shaheen0100
Jordan Howard11-30

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -4.53.3%6.2%7.4%3.2%5.0%3.3%

Positive margins favour Dolphins; negative favour Seahawks.

Half-point at risk

2.01%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

64.5%

Expected total

41.4est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.05
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment+3.93
  • Rest differential+0.24
  • Expected margin+5.83