2004 · Week 11

Final

Dolphins

Miami

QB A.J. Feeley

17·24

Seahawks

Seattle

QB Trent Dilfer

Qwest Field · outdoors · fieldturf · 46°F · wind 3mph

Closing spread

SEA -9.5

Total

37

Model margin

+0.5est.

SEA perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Win probability

  • Seahawks
  • Dolphins

How each play moved the game.

Seahawks winsDolphins wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Dolphinsedge mapSeahawks
  • -0.173EPA / play+0.035
  • 35.8%Success rate44.4%
  • -0.181EPA / dropback+0.090
  • -0.159EPA / rush-0.040
  • 6.9%Explosive rate9.3%
  • 34.6%Third-down rate37.2%
  • 56.0%Red-zone TD rate65.2%
  • 0.97Points / drive1.81
  • 3.7%Turnover rate2.6%
  • -0.054EPA / play allowed+0.004

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

MIA lead 5–4 since 1999

SEA have won 3 straight. Meetings average 37 points. SEA are 3-6 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2024 · W3MIA @ SEA3–24SEA
2020 · W4SEA @ MIA31–23SEA
2016 · W1MIA @ SEA10–12SEA
2012 · W12SEA @ MIA21–24MIA
2008 · W10SEA @ MIA19–21MIA
2001 · W7MIA @ SEA24–20MIA
2000 · W1SEA @ MIA0–23MIA
1999 · playoffsMIA @ SEA20–17MIA

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultMIA–SEA
SEAQ1 15:001074Touchdown0–7
MIAQ1 9:1933Punt0–7
SEAQ1 8:1746Turnover0–7
MIAQ1 6:42635Touchdown7–7
SEAQ1 4:25832Field goal7–10
MIAQ1 1:1342Punt7–10
SEAQ1 0:0634Punt7–10
MIAQ2 14:38414Turnover7–10
SEAQ2 12:58518Punt7–10
MIAQ2 10:2731Punt7–10
SEAQ2 8:16754Touchdown7–17
MIAQ2 4:383-7Punt7–17
SEAQ2 3:5620Turnover7–17
MIAQ2 3:08963Turnover7–17
SEAQ2 0:47723End of half7–17
MIAQ3 15:0032Punt7–17
SEAQ3 14:023-5Punt7–17
MIAQ3 12:12756Touchdown14–17
SEAQ3 10:3333Punt14–17
MIAQ3 8:3937Punt14–17
SEAQ3 7:3532Punt14–17
MIAQ3 6:3234Punt14–17
SEAQ3 5:02567Punt14–17
MIAQ3 0:51828Punt14–17
SEAQ4 12:1210Turnover14–17
MIAQ4 12:03620Missed field goal14–17
SEAQ4 8:06525Punt14–17
MIAQ4 4:33848Field goal17–17
SEAQ4 2:203-7Punt17–17
MIAQ4 1:51412Opp touchdown17–24
MIAQ4 0:5610Turnover17–24
SEAQ4 0:4200End of half17–24

Box score

Individual performances

Dolphins

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
A.J. Feeley23/4522912
Jay Fiedler1/1100

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Travis Minor13372.80
Sammy Morris7162.30
A.J. Feeley177.01
Chris Chambers177.00
Brock Forsey122.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Chris Chambers911031

Seahawks

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Trent Dilfer14/2819612

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Shaun Alexander29963.31
Trent Dilfer5112.20
Maurice Morris133.00

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +9.57.3%7.4%3.0%4.5%2.8%

Positive margins favour Seahawks; negative favour Dolphins.

Half-point at risk

2.76%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

50.3%

Expected total

43.1est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.43
  • Home-field advantage+2.56
  • Quarterback adjustment-2.99
  • Rest differential-0.56
  • Expected margin+0.45