Closing spread
SEA -9.5
Total
37
Model margin
+0.5est.
SEA perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Seahawks
- Dolphins
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.173EPA / play+0.035
- 35.8%Success rate44.4%
- -0.181EPA / dropback+0.090
- -0.159EPA / rush-0.040
- 6.9%Explosive rate9.3%
- 34.6%Third-down rate37.2%
- 56.0%Red-zone TD rate65.2%
- 0.97Points / drive1.81
- 3.7%Turnover rate2.6%
- -0.054EPA / play allowed+0.004
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
MIA lead 5–4 since 1999
SEA have won 3 straight. Meetings average 37 points. SEA are 3-6 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Dolphins
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| A.J. Feeley | 23/45 | 229 | 1 | 2 |
| Jay Fiedler | 1/1 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Travis Minor | 13 | 37 | 2.8 | 0 |
| Sammy Morris | 7 | 16 | 2.3 | 0 |
| A.J. Feeley | 1 | 7 | 7.0 | 1 |
| Chris Chambers | 1 | 7 | 7.0 | 0 |
| Brock Forsey | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Chambers | 9 | 1 | 103 | 1 |
Seahawks
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trent Dilfer | 14/28 | 196 | 1 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shaun Alexander | 29 | 96 | 3.3 | 1 |
| Trent Dilfer | 5 | 11 | 2.2 | 0 |
| Maurice Morris | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Seahawks; negative favour Dolphins.
Half-point at risk
2.76%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
50.3%
Expected total
43.1est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.43
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment-2.99
- Rest differential-0.56
- Expected margin+0.45