2024 · Week 3

Final

Dolphins

Miami

QB Skylar Thompson

3·24

Seahawks

Seattle

QB Geno Smith

Lumen Field · outdoors · fieldturf · 64°F · wind 2mph

Closing spread

SEA -4

Total

41.5

Model margin

+5.6est.

SEA perspective

Push chance

2.5%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Dolphins

Seahawks

Win probability

  • Seahawks
  • Dolphins

How each play moved the game.

Seahawks winsDolphins wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Dolphinsedge mapSeahawks
  • -0.040EPA / play-0.013
  • 44.3%Success rate44.4%
  • +0.089EPA / dropback+0.044
  • -0.246EPA / rush-0.126
  • 7.3%Explosive rate8.2%
  • +3.08CPOE+4.61
  • 35.4%Third-down rate37.5%
  • 55.9%Red-zone TD rate66.6%
  • 1.92Points / drive1.82
  • 1.7%Turnover rate1.8%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

MIA lead 5–4 since 1999

SEA have won 3 straight. Meetings average 37 points. SEA are 3-6 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2020 · W4SEA @ MIA31–23SEA
2016 · W1MIA @ SEA10–12SEA
2012 · W12SEA @ MIA21–24MIA
2008 · W10SEA @ MIA19–21MIA
2004 · W11MIA @ SEA17–24SEA
2001 · W7MIA @ SEA24–20MIA
2000 · W1SEA @ MIA0–23MIA
1999 · playoffsMIA @ SEA20–17MIA

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultMIA–SEA
SEAQ1 15:00628Field goal0–3
MIAQ1 10:49431Missed field goal0–3
SEAQ1 8:37553Touchdown0–10
MIAQ1 6:4453Punt0–10
SEAQ1 3:334-1Turnover0–10
MIAQ1 2:2147Field goal3–10
SEAQ1 0:11171Touchdown3–17
MIAQ2 15:0049Punt3–17
SEAQ2 13:38955Missed field goal3–17
MIAQ2 8:58518Punt3–17
SEAQ2 6:19411Punt3–17
MIAQ2 4:003-4Punt3–17
SEAQ2 2:2446Punt3–17
MIAQ2 0:55523End of half3–17
MIAQ3 15:0031Punt3–17
SEAQ3 12:373-3Punt3–17
MIAQ3 10:26524Turnover on downs3–17
SEAQ3 7:59412Punt3–17
MIAQ3 6:32419Punt3–17
SEAQ3 4:05842Turnover3–17
MIAQ3 0:371237Turnover on downs3–17
SEAQ4 10:221187Touchdown3–24
MIAQ4 4:55737Turnover on downs3–24
SEAQ4 3:00311End of half3–24

Box score

Individual performances

Dolphins

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Skylar Thompson13/1910700
Tim Boyle7/137900

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
De'Von Achane11302.70
Jaylen Wright2178.50
Jeff Wilson3144.70
Tim Boyle166.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Tyreek Hill35400
Dee Eskridge11300
De'Von Achane35280
Jaylen Waddle45260
Julian Hill22240
Jonnu Smith23180
Durham Smythe1230
Tanner Conner1210
Braxton Berrios0100
Erik Ezukanma0200

Seahawks

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Geno Smith26/3428912

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Zach Charbonnet18915.12
Kenny McIntosh3113.70
Geno Smith2-2-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
DK Metcalf461041
Noah Fant66600
Tyler Lockett58460
Jaxon Smith-Njigba33390
Zach Charbonnet34160
AJ Barner33130
Pharaoh Brown1290
Laviska Shenault Jr.1120

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +43.4%6.3%7.4%3.2%5.0%3.3%3.1%

Positive margins favour Seahawks; negative favour Dolphins.

Half-point at risk

2.54%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

64.0%

Expected total

43.5est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.16
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment+5.32
  • Rest differential-0.24
  • Expected margin+5.62