Closing spread
SEA -4
Total
41.5
Model margin
+5.6est.
SEA perspective
Push chance
2.5%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Seahawks
- Dolphins
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.040EPA / play-0.013
- 44.3%Success rate44.4%
- +0.089EPA / dropback+0.044
- -0.246EPA / rush-0.126
- 7.3%Explosive rate8.2%
- +3.08CPOE+4.61
- 35.4%Third-down rate37.5%
- 55.9%Red-zone TD rate66.6%
- 1.92Points / drive1.82
- 1.7%Turnover rate1.8%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
MIA lead 5–4 since 1999
SEA have won 3 straight. Meetings average 37 points. SEA are 3-6 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Dolphins
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Skylar Thompson | 13/19 | 107 | 0 | 0 |
| Tim Boyle | 7/13 | 79 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| De'Von Achane | 11 | 30 | 2.7 | 0 |
| Jaylen Wright | 2 | 17 | 8.5 | 0 |
| Jeff Wilson | 3 | 14 | 4.7 | 0 |
| Tim Boyle | 1 | 6 | 6.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyreek Hill | 3 | 5 | 40 | 0 |
| Dee Eskridge | 1 | 1 | 30 | 0 |
| De'Von Achane | 3 | 5 | 28 | 0 |
| Jaylen Waddle | 4 | 5 | 26 | 0 |
| Julian Hill | 2 | 2 | 24 | 0 |
| Jonnu Smith | 2 | 3 | 18 | 0 |
| Durham Smythe | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0 |
| Tanner Conner | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 |
| Braxton Berrios | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Erik Ezukanma | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Seahawks
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Geno Smith | 26/34 | 289 | 1 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zach Charbonnet | 18 | 91 | 5.1 | 2 |
| Kenny McIntosh | 3 | 11 | 3.7 | 0 |
| Geno Smith | 2 | -2 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DK Metcalf | 4 | 6 | 104 | 1 |
| Noah Fant | 6 | 6 | 60 | 0 |
| Tyler Lockett | 5 | 8 | 46 | 0 |
| Jaxon Smith-Njigba | 3 | 3 | 39 | 0 |
| Zach Charbonnet | 3 | 4 | 16 | 0 |
| AJ Barner | 3 | 3 | 13 | 0 |
| Pharaoh Brown | 1 | 2 | 9 | 0 |
| Laviska Shenault Jr. | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Seahawks; negative favour Dolphins.
Half-point at risk
2.54%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
64.0%
Expected total
43.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.16
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment+5.32
- Rest differential-0.24
- Expected margin+5.62