2012 · Week 12

Final

Seahawks

Seattle

QB Russell Wilson

21·24

Dolphins

Miami

QB Ryan Tannehill

Sun Life Stadium · outdoors · grass · 72°F · wind 6mph

Closing spread

SEA -3

Total

37.5

Model margin

-1.9est.

MIA perspective

Push chance

7.5%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Seahawks

Dolphins

Win probability

  • Dolphins
  • Seahawks

How each play moved the game.

Dolphins winsSeahawks wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Seahawksedge mapDolphins
  • +0.109EPA / play-0.049
  • 45.2%Success rate42.9%
  • +0.213EPA / dropback-0.007
  • -0.005EPA / rush-0.107
  • 11.2%Explosive rate7.9%
  • +5.50CPOE-2.89
  • 39.8%Third-down rate37.7%
  • 60.5%Red-zone TD rate58.9%
  • 2.17Points / drive1.37
  • 1.7%Turnover rate2.4%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

MIA lead 5–4 since 1999

SEA have won 3 straight. Meetings average 37 points. MIA are 6-3 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2024 · W3MIA @ SEA3–24SEA
2020 · W4SEA @ MIA31–23SEA
2016 · W1MIA @ SEA10–12SEA
2008 · W10SEA @ MIA19–21MIA
2004 · W11MIA @ SEA17–24SEA
2001 · W7MIA @ SEA24–20MIA
2000 · W1SEA @ MIA0–23MIA
1999 · playoffsMIA @ SEA20–17MIA

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultSEA–MIA
SEAQ1 15:00312Punt0–0
MIAQ1 13:2876Punt0–0
SEAQ1 9:5133Punt0–0
MIAQ1 8:1210Turnover0–0
SEAQ1 7:5935Punt0–0
MIAQ1 6:20416Punt0–0
SEAQ1 4:2737Punt0–0
MIAQ1 2:24539Punt0–0
SEAQ2 14:51843Punt0–0
MIAQ2 10:05989Touchdown0–7
SEAQ2 5:13980Touchdown7–7
MIAQ2 0:2900End of half7–7
MIAQ3 15:00523Punt7–7
SEAQ3 12:101395Touchdown14–7
MIAQ3 4:00735Punt14–7
SEAQ3 0:34636Punt14–7
MIAQ4 12:03878Touchdown20–14
SEAQ4 8:0800Touchdown21–14
MIAQ4 7:54680Touchdown21–21
SEAQ4 5:13931Punt21–21
MIAQ4 1:32570Field goal21–24

Box score

Individual performances

Seahawks

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Russell Wilson21/2722420

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Marshawn Lynch19462.40
Russell Wilson5387.60
Robert Turbin294.50
Sidney Rice133.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Golden Tate45560
Sidney Rice33490
Robert Turbin33470
Anthony McCoy23231
Zach Miller33160
Doug Baldwin14140
Jermaine Kearse1180
Evan Moore1160
Marshawn Lynch2310

Dolphins

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Ryan Tannehill18/2625311

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Reggie Bush14876.21
Daniel Thomas9606.71
Ryan Tannehill4338.30
Marlon Moore199.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Davone Bess791290
Charles Clay66841
Daniel Thomas11180
Brian Hartline25170
Anthony Fasano11100
Reggie Bush13-50

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -32.9%4.7%3.1%7.5%7.1%2.7%4.1%

Positive margins favour Dolphins; negative favour Seahawks.

Half-point at risk

7.50%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

44.0%

Expected total

43.2est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-4.07
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential-0.32
  • Expected margin-1.90