Closing spread
SEA -3
Total
37.5
Model margin
-1.9est.
MIA perspective
Push chance
7.5%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Dolphins
- Seahawks
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.109EPA / play-0.049
- 45.2%Success rate42.9%
- +0.213EPA / dropback-0.007
- -0.005EPA / rush-0.107
- 11.2%Explosive rate7.9%
- +5.50CPOE-2.89
- 39.8%Third-down rate37.7%
- 60.5%Red-zone TD rate58.9%
- 2.17Points / drive1.37
- 1.7%Turnover rate2.4%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
MIA lead 5–4 since 1999
SEA have won 3 straight. Meetings average 37 points. MIA are 6-3 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Seahawks
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Russell Wilson | 21/27 | 224 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marshawn Lynch | 19 | 46 | 2.4 | 0 |
| Russell Wilson | 5 | 38 | 7.6 | 0 |
| Robert Turbin | 2 | 9 | 4.5 | 0 |
| Sidney Rice | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Golden Tate | 4 | 5 | 56 | 0 |
| Sidney Rice | 3 | 3 | 49 | 0 |
| Robert Turbin | 3 | 3 | 47 | 0 |
| Anthony McCoy | 2 | 3 | 23 | 1 |
| Zach Miller | 3 | 3 | 16 | 0 |
| Doug Baldwin | 1 | 4 | 14 | 0 |
| Jermaine Kearse | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 |
| Evan Moore | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
| Marshawn Lynch | 2 | 3 | 1 | 0 |
Dolphins
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan Tannehill | 18/26 | 253 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reggie Bush | 14 | 87 | 6.2 | 1 |
| Daniel Thomas | 9 | 60 | 6.7 | 1 |
| Ryan Tannehill | 4 | 33 | 8.3 | 0 |
| Marlon Moore | 1 | 9 | 9.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Davone Bess | 7 | 9 | 129 | 0 |
| Charles Clay | 6 | 6 | 84 | 1 |
| Daniel Thomas | 1 | 1 | 18 | 0 |
| Brian Hartline | 2 | 5 | 17 | 0 |
| Anthony Fasano | 1 | 1 | 10 | 0 |
| Reggie Bush | 1 | 3 | -5 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Dolphins; negative favour Seahawks.
Half-point at risk
7.50%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
44.0%
Expected total
43.2est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-4.07
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.32
- Expected margin-1.90