Closing spread
MIA -2.5
Total
36.5
Model margin
+1.6est.
SEA perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Seahawks
- Dolphins
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.023EPA / play-0.018
- 41.2%Success rate38.9%
- +0.068EPA / dropback+0.031
- -0.134EPA / rush-0.080
- 7.6%Explosive rate8.3%
- 41.1%Third-down rate36.1%
- 49.5%Red-zone TD rate55.9%
- 1.31Points / drive1.20
- 3.4%Turnover rate1.9%
- -0.050EPA / play allowed+0.002
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
MIA lead 5–4 since 1999
SEA have won 3 straight. Meetings average 37 points. SEA are 3-6 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | MIA–SEA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIA | Q1 15:00 | 2 | 0 | Turnover | 0–0 |
| SEA | Q1 14:02 | 10 | 85 | Missed field goal | 0–0 |
| MIA | Q1 8:24 | 8 | 26 | Turnover | 0–0 |
| SEA | Q1 4:39 | 6 | 17 | Turnover | 0–0 |
| MIA | Q1 1:24 | 5 | 19 | Field goal | 3–0 |
| SEA | Q2 13:34 | 2 | 11 | Turnover | 3–0 |
| MIA | Q2 12:43 | 3 | 8 | Punt | 3–0 |
| SEA | Q2 11:06 | 3 | 0 | Punt | 3–0 |
| MIA | Q2 10:41 | 9 | 64 | Touchdown | 10–0 |
| SEA | Q2 5:39 | 3 | 4 | Punt | 10–0 |
| SEA | Q2 4:27 | 3 | 28 | Touchdown | 10–7 |
| MIA | Q2 3:18 | 4 | 12 | Punt | 10–7 |
| SEA | Q2 1:39 | 5 | 47 | Touchdown | 10–14 |
| MIA | Q2 0:42 | 1 | -1 | End of half | 10–14 |
| SEA | Q3 15:00 | 14 | 54 | Field goal | 10–17 |
| MIA | Q3 6:45 | 11 | 67 | Touchdown | 17–17 |
| SEA | Q3 0:07 | 12 | 40 | Field goal | 17–20 |
| MIA | Q4 8:37 | 5 | 67 | Touchdown | 24–20 |
| SEA | Q4 6:16 | 4 | 3 | Punt | 24–20 |
| MIA | Q4 5:01 | 3 | 11 | Turnover | 24–20 |
| SEA | Q4 3:34 | 5 | 13 | Missed field goal | 24–20 |
| MIA | Q4 1:56 | 5 | 16 | End of half | 24–20 |
Box score
Individual performances
Dolphins
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jay Fiedler | 15/21 | 213 | 1 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jay Fiedler | 8 | 41 | 5.1 | 0 |
| Lamar Smith | 21 | 35 | 1.7 | 1 |
| Travis Minor | 2 | 11 | 5.5 | 0 |
| Ray Lucas | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
| Chris Chambers | 1 | -11 | -11.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| James McKnight | 8 | 10 | 94 | 1 |
| Chris Chambers | 3 | 5 | 76 | 0 |
| Oronde Gadsden | 1 | 2 | 15 | 0 |
| Jed Weaver | 1 | 1 | 12 | 0 |
| Lamar Smith | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| Hunter Goodwin | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Seahawks
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Hasselbeck | 16/28 | 230 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shaun Alexander | 23 | 87 | 3.8 | 0 |
| Matt Hasselbeck | 4 | 9 | 2.3 | 0 |
| Jay Graham | 1 | -2 | -2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Darrell Jackson | 5 | 8 | 121 | 1 |
| Koren Robinson | 3 | 6 | 40 | 0 |
| Bobby Engram | 3 | 7 | 28 | 0 |
| Christian Fauria | 2 | 3 | 16 | 0 |
| Itula Mili | 2 | 2 | 16 | 1 |
| Shaun Alexander | 1 | 2 | 9 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Seahawks; negative favour Dolphins.
Half-point at risk
2.07%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
53.4%
Expected total
45.6est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.95
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+1.62