Closing spread
MIA -2.5
Total
36.5
Model margin
+1.6est.
SEA perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Seahawks
- Dolphins
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.023EPA / play-0.018
- 41.2%Success rate38.9%
- +0.068EPA / dropback+0.031
- -0.134EPA / rush-0.080
- 7.6%Explosive rate8.3%
- 41.1%Third-down rate36.1%
- 49.5%Red-zone TD rate55.9%
- 1.31Points / drive1.20
- 3.4%Turnover rate1.9%
- -0.050EPA / play allowed+0.002
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
MIA lead 5–4 since 1999
SEA have won 3 straight. Meetings average 37 points. SEA are 3-6 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Dolphins
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jay Fiedler | 15/21 | 213 | 1 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jay Fiedler | 8 | 41 | 5.1 | 0 |
| Lamar Smith | 21 | 35 | 1.7 | 1 |
| Travis Minor | 2 | 11 | 5.5 | 0 |
| Ray Lucas | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
| Chris Chambers | 1 | -11 | -11.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| James McKnight | 8 | 10 | 94 | 1 |
| Chris Chambers | 3 | 5 | 76 | 0 |
| Oronde Gadsden | 1 | 2 | 15 | 0 |
| Jed Weaver | 1 | 1 | 12 | 0 |
| Lamar Smith | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| Hunter Goodwin | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Seahawks
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Hasselbeck | 16/28 | 230 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shaun Alexander | 23 | 87 | 3.8 | 0 |
| Matt Hasselbeck | 4 | 9 | 2.3 | 0 |
| Jay Graham | 1 | -2 | -2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Darrell Jackson | 5 | 8 | 121 | 1 |
| Koren Robinson | 3 | 6 | 40 | 0 |
| Bobby Engram | 3 | 7 | 28 | 0 |
| Christian Fauria | 2 | 3 | 16 | 0 |
| Itula Mili | 2 | 2 | 16 | 1 |
| Shaun Alexander | 1 | 2 | 9 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Seahawks; negative favour Dolphins.
Half-point at risk
2.07%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
53.4%
Expected total
45.6est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.95
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+1.62