Closing spread
SEA -10.5
Total
43.5
Model margin
+3.5est.
SEA perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Seahawks
- Dolphins
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.004EPA / play+0.022
- 42.2%Success rate44.0%
- +0.062EPA / dropback+0.102
- -0.092EPA / rush-0.126
- 10.4%Explosive rate8.7%
- +4.52CPOE+4.81
- 37.0%Third-down rate38.7%
- 68.3%Red-zone TD rate41.8%
- 1.80Points / drive1.88
- 2.2%Turnover rate1.7%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
MIA lead 5–4 since 1999
SEA have won 3 straight. Meetings average 37 points. SEA are 3-6 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Dolphins
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan Tannehill | 16/29 | 186 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arian Foster | 13 | 38 | 2.9 | 0 |
| Ryan Tannehill | 5 | 17 | 3.4 | 1 |
| Damien Williams | 2 | 9 | 4.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arian Foster | 3 | 5 | 62 | 0 |
| Jarvis Landry | 7 | 10 | 59 | 0 |
| Damien Williams | 1 | 2 | 29 | 0 |
| Kenny Stills | 1 | 5 | 16 | 0 |
| Leonte Carroo | 2 | 2 | 14 | 0 |
| Jordan Cameron | 2 | 3 | 6 | 0 |
Seahawks
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Russell Wilson | 27/43 | 258 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Christine Michael | 15 | 66 | 4.4 | 0 |
| Thomas Rawls | 12 | 32 | 2.7 | 0 |
| Russell Wilson | 4 | 16 | 4.0 | 0 |
| C.J. Prosise | 1 | -2 | -2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Doug Baldwin | 9 | 11 | 92 | 1 |
| Jermaine Kearse | 5 | 7 | 57 | 0 |
| Luke Willson | 2 | 4 | 26 | 0 |
| Thomas Rawls | 3 | 3 | 26 | 0 |
| Tyler Lockett | 3 | 8 | 17 | 0 |
| C.J. Prosise | 1 | 1 | 13 | 0 |
| Jimmy Graham | 1 | 1 | 11 | 0 |
| Paul Richardson | 1 | 2 | 11 | 0 |
| Christine Michael | 2 | 4 | 5 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Seahawks; negative favour Dolphins.
Half-point at risk
1.48%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
58.5%
Expected total
43.8est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.78
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+3.52