2016 · Week 1

Final

Dolphins

Miami

QB Ryan Tannehill

10·12

Seahawks

Seattle

QB Russell Wilson

CenturyLink Field · outdoors · fieldturf · 61°F · wind 2mph

Closing spread

SEA -10.5

Total

43.5

Model margin

+3.5est.

SEA perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Dolphins

Seahawks

Win probability

  • Seahawks
  • Dolphins

How each play moved the game.

Seahawks winsDolphins wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Dolphinsedge mapSeahawks
  • -0.004EPA / play+0.022
  • 42.2%Success rate44.0%
  • +0.062EPA / dropback+0.102
  • -0.092EPA / rush-0.126
  • 10.4%Explosive rate8.7%
  • +4.52CPOE+4.81
  • 37.0%Third-down rate38.7%
  • 68.3%Red-zone TD rate41.8%
  • 1.80Points / drive1.88
  • 2.2%Turnover rate1.7%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

MIA lead 5–4 since 1999

SEA have won 3 straight. Meetings average 37 points. SEA are 3-6 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2024 · W3MIA @ SEA3–24SEA
2020 · W4SEA @ MIA31–23SEA
2012 · W12SEA @ MIA21–24MIA
2008 · W10SEA @ MIA19–21MIA
2004 · W11MIA @ SEA17–24SEA
2001 · W7MIA @ SEA24–20MIA
2000 · W1SEA @ MIA0–23MIA
1999 · playoffsMIA @ SEA20–17MIA

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultMIA–SEA
SEAQ1 15:00519Punt0–0
MIAQ1 13:0335Punt0–0
SEAQ1 11:191151Field goal0–3
MIAQ1 5:11763Turnover on downs0–3
SEAQ1 1:0939Punt0–3
MIAQ2 14:0932Punt0–3
SEAQ2 12:2635Turnover0–3
MIAQ2 10:51519Field goal3–3
SEAQ2 8:45726Punt3–3
MIAQ2 5:40416Punt3–3
SEAQ2 4:2148Punt3–3
MIAQ2 3:2836Punt3–3
SEAQ2 1:521078Field goal3–6
MIAQ3 15:0030Punt3–6
SEAQ3 12:436-1Punt3–6
MIAQ3 9:2232Punt3–6
SEAQ3 7:58520Turnover on downs3–6
MIAQ3 4:5845Punt3–6
SEAQ3 3:25823Turnover3–6
MIAQ4 14:53927Missed field goal3–6
SEAQ4 10:41639Punt3–6
MIAQ4 7:09786Touchdown10–6
SEAQ4 4:081475Touchdown10–12
MIAQ4 0:313-17End of half10–12

Box score

Individual performances

Dolphins

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Ryan Tannehill16/2918600

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Arian Foster13382.90
Ryan Tannehill5173.41
Damien Williams294.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Arian Foster35620
Jarvis Landry710590
Damien Williams12290
Kenny Stills15160
Leonte Carroo22140
Jordan Cameron2360

Seahawks

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Russell Wilson27/4325811

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Christine Michael15664.40
Thomas Rawls12322.70
Russell Wilson4164.00
C.J. Prosise1-2-2.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Doug Baldwin911921
Jermaine Kearse57570
Luke Willson24260
Thomas Rawls33260
Tyler Lockett38170
C.J. Prosise11130
Jimmy Graham11110
Paul Richardson12110
Christine Michael2450

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +10.56.8%7.5%3.1%4.8%3.1%2.8%

Positive margins favour Seahawks; negative favour Dolphins.

Half-point at risk

1.48%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

58.5%

Expected total

43.8est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.78
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+3.52