Closing spread
IND -5.5
Total
46.5
Model margin
+2.2est.
IND perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Colts
- Titans
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.007EPA / play+0.072
- 40.1%Success rate41.4%
- +0.067EPA / dropback+0.193
- -0.083EPA / rush-0.106
- 8.5%Explosive rate9.5%
- 39.0%Third-down rate39.4%
- 58.0%Red-zone TD rate52.1%
- 1.52Points / drive1.88
- 2.1%Turnover rate2.8%
- -0.042EPA / play allowed-0.036
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
IND lead 34–16 since 1999
Meetings average 46.3 points. IND are 29-21 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | TEN–IND |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| IND | Q1 15:00 | 4 | 7 | Punt | 0–0 |
| TEN | Q1 13:03 | 3 | 5 | Punt | 0–0 |
| IND | Q1 11:28 | 8 | 42 | Field goal | 0–3 |
| TEN | Q1 7:13 | 5 | 33 | Punt | 0–3 |
| IND | Q1 4:01 | 3 | 0 | Punt | 0–3 |
| TEN | Q1 3:02 | 7 | 31 | Field goal | 3–3 |
| IND | Q2 14:56 | 3 | 8 | Punt | 3–3 |
| TEN | Q2 12:34 | 5 | 12 | Punt | 3–3 |
| IND | Q2 10:15 | 8 | 65 | Field goal | 3–6 |
| TEN | Q2 5:38 | 6 | 34 | Field goal | 6–6 |
| IND | Q2 3:15 | 10 | 66 | Field goal | 6–9 |
| TEN | Q2 0:01 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 6–9 |
| TEN | Q3 15:00 | 3 | 80 | Touchdown | 13–9 |
| IND | Q3 13:19 | 5 | 13 | Punt | 13–9 |
| TEN | Q3 10:28 | 3 | 9 | Punt | 13–9 |
| IND | Q3 8:08 | 7 | 44 | Punt | 13–9 |
| TEN | Q3 4:18 | 12 | 78 | Field goal | 16–9 |
| IND | Q4 12:57 | 3 | 0 | Punt | 16–9 |
| TEN | Q4 11:42 | 3 | 9 | Punt | 16–9 |
| IND | Q4 9:16 | 4 | 3 | Punt | 16–9 |
| TEN | Q4 7:55 | 6 | 17 | Field goal | 19–9 |
| IND | Q4 4:19 | 4 | 6 | Turnover on downs | 19–9 |
| TEN | Q4 3:34 | 3 | 4 | Turnover | 19–9 |
| IND | Q4 3:11 | 10 | 51 | Touchdown | 19–16 |
| TEN | Q4 1:51 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 19–16 |
Box score
Individual performances
Titans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Steve McNair | 13/24 | 112 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eddie George | 26 | 162 | 6.2 | 1 |
| Steve McNair | 7 | 35 | 5.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Sanders | 2 | 3 | 38 | 0 |
| Kevin Dyson | 2 | 3 | 25 | 0 |
| Yancey Thigpen | 3 | 7 | 19 | 0 |
| Frank Wycheck | 3 | 5 | 16 | 0 |
| Eddie George | 3 | 6 | 14 | 0 |
Colts
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Peyton Manning | 19/42 | 227 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Edgerrin James | 20 | 56 | 2.8 | 0 |
| Peyton Manning | 3 | 22 | 7.3 | 1 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marvin Harrison | 5 | 18 | 65 | 0 |
| Terrence Wilkins | 4 | 6 | 55 | 0 |
| Jerome Pathon | 5 | 8 | 44 | 0 |
| E.G. Green | 1 | 1 | 33 | 0 |
| Ken Dilger | 2 | 3 | 12 | 0 |
| Marcus Pollard | 1 | 1 | 10 | 0 |
| Edgerrin James | 1 | 4 | 8 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Colts; negative favour Titans.
Half-point at risk
3.08%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
55.0%
Expected total
45.4est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.84
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.48
- Expected margin+2.20