Closing spread
IND -15.5
Total
47.5
Model margin
+4.7est.
IND perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Colts
- Titans
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.148EPA / play+0.083
- 37.9%Success rate46.6%
- -0.165EPA / dropback+0.104
- -0.117EPA / rush+0.052
- 7.3%Explosive rate8.1%
- -3.50CPOE+0.62
- 32.0%Third-down rate43.0%
- 58.5%Red-zone TD rate71.1%
- 1.36Points / drive2.74
- 1.7%Turnover rate2.0%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
IND lead 34–15 since 1999
IND have won 6 straight. Meetings average 46.3 points. IND are 29-20 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Titans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cam Ward | 22/38 | 259 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyjae Spears | 9 | 59 | 6.6 | 1 |
| Tony Pollard | 11 | 44 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Julius Chestnut | 2 | 5 | 2.5 | 0 |
| Cam Ward | 2 | 4 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Chimere Dike | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chimere Dike | 7 | 8 | 93 | 0 |
| Chig Okonkwo | 4 | 5 | 53 | 0 |
| Elic Ayomanor | 4 | 8 | 52 | 0 |
| Tyjae Spears | 3 | 3 | 23 | 0 |
| Gunnar Helm | 2 | 3 | 23 | 1 |
| Tony Pollard | 1 | 2 | 9 | 0 |
| Van Jefferson | 1 | 8 | 6 | 0 |
Colts
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Daniel Jones | 21/29 | 272 | 3 | 0 |
| Riley Leonard | 0/2 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jonathan Taylor | 12 | 153 | 12.8 | 2 |
| Ameer Abdullah | 2 | 5 | 2.5 | 0 |
| Daniel Jones | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Tyler Goodson | 2 | 2 | 1.0 | 0 |
| Riley Leonard | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Pittman | 8 | 9 | 95 | 1 |
| Alec Pierce | 2 | 5 | 69 | 0 |
| Tyler Warren | 4 | 5 | 53 | 0 |
| Josh Downs | 3 | 3 | 39 | 1 |
| Jonathan Taylor | 2 | 2 | 21 | 1 |
| Ameer Abdullah | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
| Andrew Ogletree | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Adonai Mitchell | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Ashton Dulin | 1 | 1 | -8 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Colts; negative favour Titans.
Half-point at risk
1.49%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
61.5%
Expected total
42.6est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.96
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+4.67