2025 · Week 8 · Division

Final

Titans

Tennessee

QB Cam Ward

14·38

Colts

Indianapolis

QB Daniel Jones

Lucas Oil Stadium · closed · fieldturf

Closing spread

IND -15.5

Total

47.5

Model margin

+4.7est.

IND perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Titans

Colts

Win probability

  • Colts
  • Titans

How each play moved the game.

Colts winsTitans wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Titansedge mapColts
  • -0.148EPA / play+0.083
  • 37.9%Success rate46.6%
  • -0.165EPA / dropback+0.104
  • -0.117EPA / rush+0.052
  • 7.3%Explosive rate8.1%
  • -3.50CPOE+0.62
  • 32.0%Third-down rate43.0%
  • 58.5%Red-zone TD rate71.1%
  • 1.36Points / drive2.74
  • 1.7%Turnover rate2.0%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

IND lead 34–16 since 1999

Meetings average 46.3 points. IND are 29-21 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W6TEN @ IND26–20TEN
2025 · W3IND @ TEN41–20IND
2024 · W16TEN @ IND30–38IND
2024 · W6IND @ TEN20–17IND
2023 · W13IND @ TEN31–28IND
2023 · W5TEN @ IND16–23IND
2022 · W7IND @ TEN10–19TEN
2022 · W4TEN @ IND24–17TEN

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultTEN–IND
INDQ1 15:00953Field goal0–3
TENQ1 9:43730Punt0–3
INDQ1 5:03873Touchdown0–10
TENQ1 0:09769Touchdown7–10
INDQ2 11:14671Touchdown7–17
TENQ2 7:4446Punt7–17
INDQ2 6:143-9Punt7–17
TENQ2 5:18629Punt7–17
INDQ2 1:47417Punt7–17
TENQ2 0:26240Missed field goal7–17
INDQ2 0:0110End of half7–17
TENQ3 15:00528Punt7–23
INDQ3 11:22180Touchdown7–24
TENQ3 11:1031Punt7–24
INDQ3 9:38984Touchdown7–31
TENQ3 5:121024Turnover on downs7–31
INDQ3 1:36646Touchdown7–38
TENQ4 14:221559Turnover7–38
INDQ4 6:5433Punt7–38
TENQ4 5:30950Touchdown14–38
INDQ4 2:3632Punt14–38
TENQ4 1:1225End of half14–38

Box score

Individual performances

Titans

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Cam Ward22/3825911

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Tyjae Spears9596.61
Tony Pollard11444.00
Julius Chestnut252.50
Cam Ward242.00
Chimere Dike111.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Chimere Dike78930
Chig Okonkwo45530
Elic Ayomanor48520
Tyjae Spears33230
Gunnar Helm23231
Tony Pollard1290
Van Jefferson1860

Colts

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Daniel Jones21/2927230
Riley Leonard0/2000

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Jonathan Taylor1215312.82
Ameer Abdullah252.50
Daniel Jones133.00
Tyler Goodson221.00
Riley Leonard111.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Michael Pittman89951
Alec Pierce25690
Tyler Warren45530
Josh Downs33391
Jonathan Taylor22211
Ameer Abdullah1130
Andrew Ogletree0100
Adonai Mitchell0100
Ashton Dulin11-80

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +15.57.5%3.2%4.9%3.2%3.0%

Positive margins favour Colts; negative favour Titans.

Half-point at risk

1.49%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

61.5%

Expected total

42.6est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.96
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+4.67