Closing spread
IND -4
Total
42.5
Model margin
+3.5est.
IND perspective
Push chance
2.5%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Colts
- Titans
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.104EPA / play-0.045
- 40.4%Success rate40.6%
- -0.056EPA / dropback-0.025
- -0.175EPA / rush-0.071
- 8.3%Explosive rate10.3%
- +0.11CPOE-5.38
- 38.0%Third-down rate37.8%
- 58.5%Red-zone TD rate53.0%
- 1.35Points / drive1.87
- 3.0%Turnover rate2.7%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
IND lead 34–15 since 1999
IND have won 6 straight. Meetings average 46.3 points. IND are 29-20 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Titans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mason Rudolph | 23/34 | 252 | 2 | 3 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tony Pollard | 8 | 35 | 4.4 | 0 |
| Tyjae Spears | 10 | 27 | 2.7 | 2 |
| Mason Rudolph | 4 | 3 | 0.8 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chig Okonkwo | 9 | 11 | 81 | 0 |
| Calvin Ridley | 3 | 5 | 78 | 1 |
| Tyjae Spears | 3 | 4 | 39 | 0 |
| Tyler Boyd | 2 | 3 | 20 | 0 |
| Nick Westbrook-Ikhine | 2 | 4 | 17 | 1 |
| Mason Kinsey | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
| David Martin-Robinson | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
| Tony Pollard | 2 | 4 | 5 | 0 |
Colts
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anthony Richardson | 7/11 | 131 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jonathan Taylor | 29 | 218 | 7.5 | 3 |
| Anthony Richardson | 9 | 70 | 7.8 | 1 |
| Trey Sermon | 8 | 25 | 3.1 | 0 |
| Tyler Goodson | 4 | 22 | 5.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Downs | 3 | 4 | 61 | 1 |
| Adonai Mitchell | 1 | 1 | 36 | 0 |
| Michael Pittman | 2 | 3 | 19 | 0 |
| Mo Alie-Cox | 1 | 2 | 15 | 0 |
| Andrew Ogletree | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Colts; negative favour Titans.
Half-point at risk
2.55%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
58.5%
Expected total
43.4est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.17
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment-0.37
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+3.51