2024 · Week 16 · Division

Final

Titans

Tennessee

QB Mason Rudolph

30·38

Colts

Indianapolis

QB Joe Flacco

Lucas Oil Stadium · closed · fieldturf

Closing spread

IND -4

Total

42.5

Model margin

+3.5est.

IND perspective

Push chance

2.5%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Titans

Colts

Win probability

  • Colts
  • Titans

How each play moved the game.

Colts winsTitans wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Titansedge mapColts
  • -0.104EPA / play-0.045
  • 40.4%Success rate40.6%
  • -0.056EPA / dropback-0.025
  • -0.175EPA / rush-0.071
  • 8.3%Explosive rate10.3%
  • +0.11CPOE-5.38
  • 38.0%Third-down rate37.8%
  • 58.5%Red-zone TD rate53.0%
  • 1.35Points / drive1.87
  • 3.0%Turnover rate2.7%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

IND lead 34–16 since 1999

Meetings average 46.3 points. IND are 29-21 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W6TEN @ IND26–20TEN
2025 · W8TEN @ IND14–38IND
2025 · W3IND @ TEN41–20IND
2024 · W6IND @ TEN20–17IND
2023 · W13IND @ TEN31–28IND
2023 · W5TEN @ IND16–23IND
2022 · W7IND @ TEN10–19TEN
2022 · W4TEN @ IND24–17TEN

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultTEN–IND
TENQ1 15:0039Punt0–0
INDQ1 12:49518Punt0–0
TENQ1 10:55665Touchdown7–0
INDQ1 7:47736Turnover7–0
TENQ1 4:03840Missed field goal7–0
INDQ2 14:11657Touchdown7–7
TENQ2 11:01419Punt7–7
INDQ2 9:35480Touchdown7–14
TENQ2 7:2533Punt7–14
INDQ2 6:20750Field goal7–17
TENQ2 2:0936Turnover7–17
INDQ2 1:25333Touchdown7–24
TENQ2 0:1500End of half7–24
INDQ3 15:00170Touchdown7–31
TENQ3 14:423-2Punt7–31
INDQ3 12:2838Punt7–31
TENQ3 10:19418Turnover7–31
INDQ3 8:33440Touchdown7–38
TENQ3 6:50955Touchdown15–38
INDQ3 2:571140Missed field goal15–38
TENQ4 10:30655Touchdown22–38
INDQ4 8:133-2Punt22–38
TENQ4 5:58840Touchdown30–38
INDQ4 2:53828Punt30–38
TENQ4 0:0310Turnover30–38

Box score

Individual performances

Titans

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Mason Rudolph23/3425223

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Tony Pollard8354.40
Tyjae Spears10272.72
Mason Rudolph430.80

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Chig Okonkwo911810
Calvin Ridley35781
Tyjae Spears34390
Tyler Boyd23200
Nick Westbrook-Ikhine24171
Mason Kinsey1160
David Martin-Robinson1160
Tony Pollard2450

Colts

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Anthony Richardson7/1113111

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Jonathan Taylor292187.53
Anthony Richardson9707.81
Trey Sermon8253.10
Tyler Goodson4225.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Josh Downs34611
Adonai Mitchell11360
Michael Pittman23190
Mo Alie-Cox12150
Andrew Ogletree0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +43.8%6.8%7.5%3.1%4.8%3.1%2.8%

Positive margins favour Colts; negative favour Titans.

Half-point at risk

2.55%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

58.5%

Expected total

43.4est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.17
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment-0.37
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+3.51