Closing spread
TEN -2.5
Total
43
Model margin
+2.4est.
TEN perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Titans
- Colts
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.154EPA / play-0.066
- 40.3%Success rate41.2%
- -0.139EPA / dropback-0.034
- -0.181EPA / rush-0.104
- 7.4%Explosive rate8.9%
- -1.42CPOE-0.94
- 33.3%Third-down rate37.1%
- 45.5%Red-zone TD rate67.5%
- 1.33Points / drive1.46
- 2.9%Turnover rate2.0%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
IND lead 34–15 since 1999
IND have won 6 straight. Meetings average 46.3 points. TEN are 20-29 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Colts
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Ryan | 33/44 | 243 | 1 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jonathan Taylor | 10 | 58 | 5.8 | 0 |
| Deon Jackson | 2 | 3 | 1.5 | 0 |
| Matt Ryan | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Nyheim Hines | 4 | 2 | 0.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Parris Campbell | 10 | 12 | 70 | 1 |
| Michael Pittman | 6 | 9 | 58 | 0 |
| Nyheim Hines | 5 | 5 | 41 | 0 |
| Alec Pierce | 3 | 4 | 37 | 0 |
| Jonathan Taylor | 7 | 8 | 27 | 0 |
| Kylen Granson | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
| Jelani Woods | 1 | 2 | 4 | 0 |
Titans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan Tannehill | 13/20 | 132 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Derrick Henry | 30 | 128 | 4.3 | 0 |
| Ryan Tannehill | 4 | 6 | 1.5 | 0 |
| Dontrell Hilliard | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Austin Hooper | 3 | 3 | 56 | 0 |
| Cody Hollister | 2 | 2 | 32 | 0 |
| Robert Woods | 3 | 4 | 26 | 0 |
| Derrick Henry | 3 | 3 | 10 | 0 |
| Hassan Haskins | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
| Mason Kinsey | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
| Geoff Swaim | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Dontrell Hilliard | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Nick Westbrook-Ikhine | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Chig Okonkwo | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Titans; negative favour Colts.
Half-point at risk
7.51%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
55.6%
Expected total
42.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.16
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.56
- Expected margin+2.42