2022 · Week 7 · Division

Final

Colts

Indianapolis

QB Matt Ryan

10·19

Titans

Tennessee

QB Ryan Tannehill

Nissan Stadium · outdoors · grass

Closing spread

TEN -2.5

Total

43

Model margin

+2.4est.

TEN perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Colts

Titans

Win probability

  • Titans
  • Colts

How each play moved the game.

Titans winsColts wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Coltsedge mapTitans
  • -0.154EPA / play-0.066
  • 40.3%Success rate41.2%
  • -0.139EPA / dropback-0.034
  • -0.181EPA / rush-0.104
  • 7.4%Explosive rate8.9%
  • -1.42CPOE-0.94
  • 33.3%Third-down rate37.1%
  • 45.5%Red-zone TD rate67.5%
  • 1.33Points / drive1.46
  • 2.9%Turnover rate2.0%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

IND lead 34–16 since 1999

Meetings average 46.3 points. TEN are 21-29 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W6TEN @ IND26–20TEN
2025 · W8TEN @ IND14–38IND
2025 · W3IND @ TEN41–20IND
2024 · W16TEN @ IND30–38IND
2024 · W6IND @ TEN20–17IND
2023 · W13IND @ TEN31–28IND
2023 · W5TEN @ IND16–23IND
2022 · W4TEN @ IND24–17TEN

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultIND–TEN
TENQ1 15:0064Punt0–0
INDQ1 10:5337Punt0–0
TENQ1 9:351062Field goal0–3
INDQ1 4:03626Punt0–3
TENQ1 1:10515Punt0–3
INDQ2 13:29949Opp touchdown0–10
INDQ2 9:25842Turnover0–10
TENQ2 5:41839Field goal0–13
INDQ2 1:57729Punt0–13
TENQ2 0:191-9End of half0–13
INDQ3 15:00628Punt0–13
TENQ3 11:5034Punt0–13
INDQ3 10:271258Touchdown7–13
TENQ3 4:071055Field goal7–16
INDQ4 13:4732Punt7–16
TENQ4 12:27311Turnover7–16
INDQ4 11:06524Field goal10–16
TENQ4 8:31841Field goal10–19
INDQ4 4:47527Turnover10–19
TENQ4 3:22334End of half10–19

Box score

Individual performances

Colts

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Matt Ryan33/4424312

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Jonathan Taylor10585.80
Deon Jackson231.50
Matt Ryan122.00
Nyheim Hines420.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Parris Campbell1012701
Michael Pittman69580
Nyheim Hines55410
Alec Pierce34370
Jonathan Taylor78270
Kylen Granson1160
Jelani Woods1240

Titans

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Ryan Tannehill13/2013200

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Derrick Henry301284.30
Ryan Tannehill461.50
Dontrell Hilliard144.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Austin Hooper33560
Cody Hollister22320
Robert Woods34260
Derrick Henry33100
Hassan Haskins1150
Mason Kinsey1130
Geoff Swaim0100
Dontrell Hilliard0200
Nick Westbrook-Ikhine0200
Chig Okonkwo0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +2.54.0%2.7%7.0%7.5%3.1%4.7%3.0%2.6%

Positive margins favour Titans; negative favour Colts.

Half-point at risk

7.51%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

55.6%

Expected total

42.5est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.16
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential+0.56
  • Expected margin+2.42