Closing spread
IND -1.5
Total
42
Model margin
+1.4est.
TEN perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Titans
- Colts
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.025EPA / play-0.023
- 41.5%Success rate40.9%
- +0.030EPA / dropback+0.014
- -0.108EPA / rush-0.078
- 8.6%Explosive rate9.0%
- -3.92CPOE+0.48
- 34.4%Third-down rate34.1%
- 57.1%Red-zone TD rate49.4%
- 1.78Points / drive1.57
- 1.6%Turnover rate1.7%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
IND lead 34–15 since 1999
IND have won 6 straight. Meetings average 46.3 points. TEN are 20-29 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Colts
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gardner Minshew | 26/42 | 312 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zack Moss | 19 | 51 | 2.7 | 0 |
| Gardner Minshew | 3 | 2 | 0.7 | 0 |
| Kylen Granson | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Pittman | 11 | 16 | 105 | 1 |
| Alec Pierce | 3 | 6 | 100 | 1 |
| Kylen Granson | 3 | 3 | 72 | 0 |
| Josh Downs | 3 | 5 | 14 | 0 |
| Tyler Goodson | 2 | 2 | 11 | 0 |
| Zack Moss | 2 | 3 | 6 | 0 |
| Will Mallory | 2 | 4 | 4 | 0 |
| Trey Sermon | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Andrew Ogletree | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Titans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Levis | 16/33 | 224 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Derrick Henry | 21 | 102 | 4.9 | 2 |
| Tyjae Spears | 16 | 75 | 4.7 | 0 |
| Will Levis | 2 | 5 | 2.5 | 0 |
| DeAndre Hopkins | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Chig Okonkwo | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DeAndre Hopkins | 5 | 12 | 75 | 1 |
| Chig Okonkwo | 3 | 6 | 62 | 0 |
| Nick Westbrook-Ikhine | 1 | 3 | 28 | 0 |
| Derrick Henry | 1 | 2 | 18 | 0 |
| Josh Whyle | 1 | 2 | 16 | 0 |
| Tyjae Spears | 4 | 6 | 13 | 0 |
| Chris Moore | 1 | 1 | 12 | 0 |
| Trevon Wesco | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Titans; negative favour Colts.
Half-point at risk
2.13%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
52.8%
Expected total
43.9est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.32
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+1.39