2023 · Week 13 · Division

Final / OT

Colts

Indianapolis

QB Gardner Minshew

31·28

Titans

Tennessee

QB Will Levis

Nissan Stadium · outdoors · grass · 53°F · wind 13mph

Closing spread

IND -1.5

Total

42

Model margin

+1.4est.

TEN perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Colts

Titans

Win probability

  • Titans
  • Colts

How each play moved the game.

Titans winsColts wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Coltsedge mapTitans
  • -0.025EPA / play-0.023
  • 41.5%Success rate40.9%
  • +0.030EPA / dropback+0.014
  • -0.108EPA / rush-0.078
  • 8.6%Explosive rate9.0%
  • -3.92CPOE+0.48
  • 34.4%Third-down rate34.1%
  • 57.1%Red-zone TD rate49.4%
  • 1.78Points / drive1.57
  • 1.6%Turnover rate1.7%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

IND lead 34–16 since 1999

Meetings average 46.3 points. TEN are 21-29 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W6TEN @ IND26–20TEN
2025 · W8TEN @ IND14–38IND
2025 · W3IND @ TEN41–20IND
2024 · W16TEN @ IND30–38IND
2024 · W6IND @ TEN20–17IND
2023 · W5TEN @ IND16–23IND
2022 · W7IND @ TEN10–19TEN
2022 · W4TEN @ IND24–17TEN

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultIND–TEN
TENQ1 15:00464Touchdown0–7
INDQ1 13:20341Touchdown7–7
TENQ1 12:051029Punt7–7
INDQ1 8:2239Punt7–7
TENQ1 6:58515Turnover7–7
TENQ1 4:04946Field goal7–10
INDQ1 0:1335Punt7–10
TENQ2 14:41877Touchdown7–17
INDQ2 10:22855Field goal10–17
TENQ2 7:3937Punt10–17
INDQ2 6:001075Turnover10–17
TENQ2 1:4832Punt10–17
INDQ2 0:43516Field goal13–17
TENQ2 0:0400End of half13–17
INDQ3 15:001870Field goal16–17
TENQ3 4:5734Punt16–17
INDQ3 3:2938Punt16–17
TENQ3 1:5936Opp touchdown22–19
TENQ3 0:194-14Turnover22–19
INDQ4 13:423-3Field goal25–19
TENQ4 11:341180Touchdown25–25
INDQ4 5:2633Punt25–25
TENQ4 4:0448Punt25–25
INDQ4 2:2739Punt25–25
TENQ4 1:13619Punt25–25
INDQ4 0:1310End of half25–25
TENOT1239Field goal25–28
INDOT671Touchdown31–28

Box score

Individual performances

Colts

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Gardner Minshew26/4231220

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Zack Moss19512.70
Gardner Minshew320.70
Kylen Granson122.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Michael Pittman11161051
Alec Pierce361001
Kylen Granson33720
Josh Downs35140
Tyler Goodson22110
Zack Moss2360
Will Mallory2440
Trey Sermon0100
Andrew Ogletree0100

Titans

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Will Levis16/3322410

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Derrick Henry211024.92
Tyjae Spears16754.70
Will Levis252.50
DeAndre Hopkins144.00
Chig Okonkwo122.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
DeAndre Hopkins512751
Chig Okonkwo36620
Nick Westbrook-Ikhine13280
Derrick Henry12180
Josh Whyle12160
Tyjae Spears46130
Chris Moore11120
Trevon Wesco0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -1.54.2%2.8%7.2%7.5%3.0%4.6%2.9%

Positive margins favour Titans; negative favour Colts.

Half-point at risk

2.13%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

52.8%

Expected total

43.9est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.32
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+1.39