2023 · Week 5 · Division

Final

Titans

Tennessee

QB Ryan Tannehill

16·23

Colts

Indianapolis

QB Anthony Richardson

Lucas Oil Stadium · open · fieldturf

Closing spread

TEN -2.5

Total

43.5

Model margin

+2.6est.

IND perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Titans

Colts

Win probability

  • Colts
  • Titans

How each play moved the game.

Colts winsTitans wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Titansedge mapColts
  • -0.023EPA / play-0.025
  • 40.9%Success rate41.5%
  • +0.014EPA / dropback+0.030
  • -0.078EPA / rush-0.108
  • 9.0%Explosive rate8.6%
  • +0.48CPOE-3.92
  • 34.1%Third-down rate34.4%
  • 49.4%Red-zone TD rate57.1%
  • 1.57Points / drive1.78
  • 1.7%Turnover rate1.6%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

IND lead 34–16 since 1999

Meetings average 46.3 points. IND are 29-21 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W6TEN @ IND26–20TEN
2025 · W8TEN @ IND14–38IND
2025 · W3IND @ TEN41–20IND
2024 · W16TEN @ IND30–38IND
2024 · W6IND @ TEN20–17IND
2023 · W13IND @ TEN31–28IND
2022 · W7IND @ TEN10–19TEN
2022 · W4TEN @ IND24–17TEN

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultTEN–IND
INDQ1 15:00631Punt0–0
TENQ1 11:441670Field goal3–0
INDQ1 3:13575Touchdown3–7
TENQ1 0:4132Punt3–7
INDQ2 14:381050Field goal3–10
TENQ2 9:321053Field goal6–10
INDQ2 4:391270Turnover on downs6–10
TENQ2 0:1100End of half6–10
TENQ3 15:00475Touchdown13–10
INDQ3 12:481053Touchdown13–17
TENQ3 8:001169Field goal16–17
INDQ3 2:02773Field goal16–20
TENQ4 13:22970Turnover on downs16–20
INDQ4 8:031578Field goal16–23
TENQ4 1:00610Turnover16–23
INDQ4 0:1000End of half16–23

Box score

Individual performances

Titans

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Ryan Tannehill23/3426401
Derrick Henry0/1000

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Derrick Henry13433.30
Tyjae Spears7344.91
Ryan Tannehill2126.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
DeAndre Hopkins8111400
Tyjae Spears45350
Chig Okonkwo59330
Trevon Wesco11210
Derrick Henry33190
Nick Westbrook-Ikhine1390
Josh Whyle1170
Kyle Philips0100

Colts

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Gardner Minshew11/1415500
Anthony Richardson9/129800

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Zack Moss231657.22
Jonathan Taylor6183.00
Anthony Richardson252.50
Isaiah McKenzie144.00
Gardner Minshew210.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Josh Downs66970
Michael Pittman57520
Zack Moss22300
Mo Alie-Cox11170
Jonathan Taylor11160
Andrew Ogletree22160
Kylen Granson23150
Alec Pierce12100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -2.54.0%2.7%7.0%7.5%3.1%4.7%3.0%

Positive margins favour Colts; negative favour Titans.

Half-point at risk

2.03%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

56.0%

Expected total

43.9est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.32
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment+0.55
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+2.58