Closing spread
TEN -2.5
Total
43.5
Model margin
+2.6est.
IND perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Colts
- Titans
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.023EPA / play-0.025
- 40.9%Success rate41.5%
- +0.014EPA / dropback+0.030
- -0.078EPA / rush-0.108
- 9.0%Explosive rate8.6%
- +0.48CPOE-3.92
- 34.1%Third-down rate34.4%
- 49.4%Red-zone TD rate57.1%
- 1.57Points / drive1.78
- 1.7%Turnover rate1.6%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
IND lead 34–15 since 1999
IND have won 6 straight. Meetings average 46.3 points. IND are 29-20 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Titans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan Tannehill | 23/34 | 264 | 0 | 1 |
| Derrick Henry | 0/1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Derrick Henry | 13 | 43 | 3.3 | 0 |
| Tyjae Spears | 7 | 34 | 4.9 | 1 |
| Ryan Tannehill | 2 | 12 | 6.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DeAndre Hopkins | 8 | 11 | 140 | 0 |
| Tyjae Spears | 4 | 5 | 35 | 0 |
| Chig Okonkwo | 5 | 9 | 33 | 0 |
| Trevon Wesco | 1 | 1 | 21 | 0 |
| Derrick Henry | 3 | 3 | 19 | 0 |
| Nick Westbrook-Ikhine | 1 | 3 | 9 | 0 |
| Josh Whyle | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 |
| Kyle Philips | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Colts
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gardner Minshew | 11/14 | 155 | 0 | 0 |
| Anthony Richardson | 9/12 | 98 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zack Moss | 23 | 165 | 7.2 | 2 |
| Jonathan Taylor | 6 | 18 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Anthony Richardson | 2 | 5 | 2.5 | 0 |
| Isaiah McKenzie | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Gardner Minshew | 2 | 1 | 0.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Downs | 6 | 6 | 97 | 0 |
| Michael Pittman | 5 | 7 | 52 | 0 |
| Zack Moss | 2 | 2 | 30 | 0 |
| Mo Alie-Cox | 1 | 1 | 17 | 0 |
| Jonathan Taylor | 1 | 1 | 16 | 0 |
| Andrew Ogletree | 2 | 2 | 16 | 0 |
| Kylen Granson | 2 | 3 | 15 | 0 |
| Alec Pierce | 1 | 2 | 10 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Colts; negative favour Titans.
Half-point at risk
2.03%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
56.0%
Expected total
43.9est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.32
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment+0.55
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+2.58