2024 · Week 6 · Division

Final

Colts

Indianapolis

QB Joe Flacco

20·17

Titans

Tennessee

QB Will Levis

Nissan Stadium · outdoors · grass · 80°F · wind 12mph

Closing spread

TEN -2.5

Total

42

Model margin

-2.8est.

TEN perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Colts

Titans

Win probability

  • Titans
  • Colts

How each play moved the game.

Titans winsColts wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Coltsedge mapTitans
  • -0.045EPA / play-0.104
  • 40.6%Success rate40.4%
  • -0.025EPA / dropback-0.056
  • -0.071EPA / rush-0.175
  • 10.3%Explosive rate8.3%
  • -5.38CPOE+0.11
  • 37.8%Third-down rate38.0%
  • 53.0%Red-zone TD rate58.5%
  • 1.87Points / drive1.35
  • 2.7%Turnover rate3.0%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

IND lead 34–16 since 1999

Meetings average 46.3 points. TEN are 21-29 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W6TEN @ IND26–20TEN
2025 · W8TEN @ IND14–38IND
2025 · W3IND @ TEN41–20IND
2024 · W16TEN @ IND30–38IND
2023 · W13IND @ TEN31–28IND
2023 · W5TEN @ IND16–23IND
2022 · W7IND @ TEN10–19TEN
2022 · W4TEN @ IND24–17TEN

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultIND–TEN
INDQ1 15:001070Touchdown7–0
TENQ1 11:1737Punt7–0
INDQ1 9:1020Turnover7–0
TENQ1 8:22327Touchdown7–7
INDQ1 6:5131Punt7–7
TENQ1 5:111556Field goal7–10
INDQ2 11:09625Punt7–10
TENQ2 7:35631Punt7–10
INDQ2 3:391159Field goal10–10
TENQ2 0:1914End of half10–10
TENQ3 15:001575Touchdown10–17
INDQ3 6:191545Field goal13–17
TENQ4 14:5739Punt13–17
INDQ4 12:501242Touchdown20–17
TENQ4 7:2730Punt20–17
INDQ4 7:0334Punt20–17
TENQ4 5:3421Turnover20–17
INDQ4 4:5233Punt20–17
TENQ4 3:49619Punt20–17
INDQ4 2:18520Punt20–17
TENQ4 0:12112End of half20–17

Box score

Individual performances

Colts

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Joe Flacco22/3818921

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Tyler Goodson8516.40
Trey Sermon18291.60
Joe Flacco111.00
Josh Downs1-1-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Josh Downs79661
Mo Alie-Cox44410
Michael Pittman35351
Andrew Ogletree22240
Tyler Goodson45140
Adonai Mitchell2490
Ashton Dulin0100
Kylen Granson0100
Alec Pierce0400
Will Mallory0100

Titans

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Will Levis16/279511

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Tony Pollard17935.51
Tyjae Spears6274.50
Will Levis3155.00
Calvin Ridley199.00
Julius Chestnut122.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
DeAndre Hopkins46540
Tyler Boyd33190
Treylon Burks11100
Nick Westbrook-Ikhine1291
Chig Okonkwo3360
Josh Whyle1120
Calvin Ridley0800
Tony Pollard33-50

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +2.53.0%4.8%3.1%7.5%6.9%2.6%3.9%

Positive margins favour Titans; negative favour Colts.

Half-point at risk

6.92%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

41.6%

Expected total

43.4est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.17
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment-2.81
  • Rest differential+0.48
  • Expected margin-2.80