Closing spread
TEN -2.5
Total
42
Model margin
-2.8est.
TEN perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Titans
- Colts
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.045EPA / play-0.104
- 40.6%Success rate40.4%
- -0.025EPA / dropback-0.056
- -0.071EPA / rush-0.175
- 10.3%Explosive rate8.3%
- -5.38CPOE+0.11
- 37.8%Third-down rate38.0%
- 53.0%Red-zone TD rate58.5%
- 1.87Points / drive1.35
- 2.7%Turnover rate3.0%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
IND lead 34–15 since 1999
IND have won 6 straight. Meetings average 46.3 points. TEN are 20-29 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Colts
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joe Flacco | 22/38 | 189 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyler Goodson | 8 | 51 | 6.4 | 0 |
| Trey Sermon | 18 | 29 | 1.6 | 0 |
| Joe Flacco | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
| Josh Downs | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Downs | 7 | 9 | 66 | 1 |
| Mo Alie-Cox | 4 | 4 | 41 | 0 |
| Michael Pittman | 3 | 5 | 35 | 1 |
| Andrew Ogletree | 2 | 2 | 24 | 0 |
| Tyler Goodson | 4 | 5 | 14 | 0 |
| Adonai Mitchell | 2 | 4 | 9 | 0 |
| Ashton Dulin | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Kylen Granson | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Alec Pierce | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 |
| Will Mallory | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Titans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Levis | 16/27 | 95 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tony Pollard | 17 | 93 | 5.5 | 1 |
| Tyjae Spears | 6 | 27 | 4.5 | 0 |
| Will Levis | 3 | 15 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Calvin Ridley | 1 | 9 | 9.0 | 0 |
| Julius Chestnut | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DeAndre Hopkins | 4 | 6 | 54 | 0 |
| Tyler Boyd | 3 | 3 | 19 | 0 |
| Treylon Burks | 1 | 1 | 10 | 0 |
| Nick Westbrook-Ikhine | 1 | 2 | 9 | 1 |
| Chig Okonkwo | 3 | 3 | 6 | 0 |
| Josh Whyle | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
| Calvin Ridley | 0 | 8 | 0 | 0 |
| Tony Pollard | 3 | 3 | -5 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Titans; negative favour Colts.
Half-point at risk
6.92%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
41.6%
Expected total
43.4est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.17
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment-2.81
- Rest differential+0.48
- Expected margin-2.80