Closing spread
—
Total
—
Model margin
-0.7est.
IND perspective
Push chance
—
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
Titansedge mapColts
- -0.141EPA / play-0.225
- 44.0%Success rate42.6%
- -0.152EPA / dropback-0.409
- -0.096EPA / rush+0.116
- 4.0%Explosive rate13.0%
- +0.39CPOE-5.06
- 33.3%Third-down rate30.0%
- 100.0%Red-zone TD rate100.0%
- 0.99Points / drive1.99
- 0.0%Turnover rate3.7%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
IND lead 34–15 since 1999
IND have won 6 straight. Meetings average 46.3 points. IND are 29-20 ATS in the series.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.90
- Home-field advantage+2.22
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-0.68