2026 · Week 6 · Division

Final

Titans

Tennessee

QB Cam Ward

26·20

Colts

Indianapolis

QB Daniel Jones

Lucas Oil Stadium · open

Closing spread

IND -6.5

Total

43.5

Model margin

+3.0est.

IND perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Titans

Colts

Win probability

  • Colts
  • Titans

How each play moved the game.

Colts winsTitans wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Titansedge mapColts
  • -0.124EPA / play-0.063
  • 40.2%Success rate42.5%
  • -0.123EPA / dropback-0.130
  • -0.126EPA / rush+0.030
  • 6.3%Explosive rate8.3%
  • -0.37CPOE-4.20
  • 34.7%Third-down rate40.1%
  • 47.4%Red-zone TD rate61.0%
  • 1.42Points / drive1.93
  • 2.0%Turnover rate2.6%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

IND lead 34–16 since 1999

Meetings average 46.3 points. IND are 29-21 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W8TEN @ IND14–38IND
2025 · W3IND @ TEN41–20IND
2024 · W16TEN @ IND30–38IND
2024 · W6IND @ TEN20–17IND
2023 · W13IND @ TEN31–28IND
2023 · W5TEN @ IND16–23IND
2022 · W7IND @ TEN10–19TEN
2022 · W4TEN @ IND24–17TEN

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultTEN–IND
TENQ1 15:001043Punt0–0
INDQ1 9:371477Turnover0–0
TENQ1 2:36313Punt0–0
INDQ2 14:49865Touchdown0–7
TENQ2 11:0739Punt0–7
INDQ2 8:421370Field goal0–10
TENQ2 2:0610Turnover0–10
INDQ2 1:50520Field goal0–13
TENQ2 0:1100End of half0–13
INDQ3 15:0014Turnover0–13
TENQ3 14:45622Field goal3–13
INDQ3 13:301241Turnover3–13
TENQ3 7:01851Field goal6–13
INDQ3 3:2155Punt6–13
TENQ4 14:44428Touchdown13–13
INDQ4 13:00618Opp touchdown20–13
INDQ4 10:17872Touchdown20–20
TENQ4 5:32716Field goal23–20
INDQ4 2:0358Turnover on downs23–20
TENQ4 1:0135Field goal26–20
INDQ4 0:43519Turnover on downs26–20

Box score

Individual performances

Titans

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Cam Ward11/2210211

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Tony Pollard19764.00
Cam Ward372.30
Tyjae Spears111.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Carnell Tate67701
Wan'Dale Robinson37220
Tyjae Spears1170
Elic Ayomanor1230
Calvin Ridley0200
Tony Pollard0100
Daniel Bellinger0200

Colts

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Daniel Jones22/4226912

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Jonathan Taylor21944.51
Daniel Jones33010.00
Seth McGowan4276.80
Josh Downs177.00
Deion Burks177.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Keenan Allen811820
Jonathan Taylor24570
Deion Burks22410
Josh Downs48400
Laquon Treadwell25210
Will Mallory26200
Pharaoh Brown1170
Mo Alie-Cox1111

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +6.53.9%6.9%7.5%3.1%4.8%3.1%2.7%

Positive margins favour Colts; negative favour Titans.

Half-point at risk

4.79%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

57.1%

Expected total

42.6est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.77
  • Home-field advantage+2.22
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+2.99