2025 · Week 3 · Division

Final

Colts

Indianapolis

QB Daniel Jones

41·20

Titans

Tennessee

QB Cam Ward

Nissan Stadium · outdoors · grass · 84°F · wind 8mph

Closing spread

IND -6

Total

43.5

Model margin

-1.3est.

TEN perspective

Push chance

3.0%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Colts

Titans

Win probability

  • Titans
  • Colts

How each play moved the game.

Titans winsColts wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Coltsedge mapTitans
  • +0.083EPA / play-0.148
  • 46.6%Success rate37.9%
  • +0.104EPA / dropback-0.165
  • +0.052EPA / rush-0.117
  • 8.1%Explosive rate7.3%
  • +0.62CPOE-3.50
  • 43.0%Third-down rate32.0%
  • 71.1%Red-zone TD rate58.5%
  • 2.74Points / drive1.36
  • 2.0%Turnover rate1.7%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

IND lead 34–16 since 1999

Meetings average 46.3 points. TEN are 21-29 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W6TEN @ IND26–20TEN
2025 · W8TEN @ IND14–38IND
2024 · W16TEN @ IND30–38IND
2024 · W6IND @ TEN20–17IND
2023 · W13IND @ TEN31–28IND
2023 · W5TEN @ IND16–23IND
2022 · W7IND @ TEN10–19TEN
2022 · W4TEN @ IND24–17TEN

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultIND–TEN
TENQ1 15:0031Opp touchdown7–0
TENQ1 14:11421Field goal7–3
INDQ1 12:40969Field goal10–3
TENQ1 7:373-9Punt10–3
INDQ1 5:161076Touchdown17–3
TENQ1 1:071159Field goal17–6
INDQ2 10:5035Punt17–6
TENQ2 9:13744Missed field goal17–6
INDQ2 5:34414Missed field goal17–6
TENQ2 3:15520Missed field goal17–6
INDQ2 0:37430Field goal20–6
INDQ3 15:00762Touchdown27–6
TENQ3 11:081470Touchdown27–13
INDQ3 5:09780Touchdown34–13
TENQ3 1:271977Touchdown34–20
INDQ4 8:40621Touchdown41–20
TENQ4 5:534-1Turnover on downs41–20
INDQ4 4:35411End of half41–20

Box score

Individual performances

Colts

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Daniel Jones18/2522810

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Jonathan Taylor171026.03
Daniel Jones4276.80
Tyler Goodson263.00
DJ Giddens133.00
Anthony Richardson4-1-0.30

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Michael Pittman66731
Alec Pierce45670
Tyler Warren35380
Josh Downs23340
Jonathan Taylor34160
Adonai Mitchell0200

Titans

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Cam Ward23/3821911

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Tony Pollard16452.81
Julius Chestnut22613.00
Cam Ward3124.00
Chimere Dike231.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Chig Okonkwo56660
Elic Ayomanor45381
Tyler Lockett44370
Calvin Ridley17270
Gunnar Helm33270
Tony Pollard24140
Van Jefferson1180
Chimere Dike3420

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -62.9%4.6%3.0%7.5%7.2%2.8%4.2%

Positive margins favour Titans; negative favour Colts.

Half-point at risk

3.02%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

45.7%

Expected total

42.6est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.96
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin-1.26