Closing spread
IND -6
Total
43.5
Model margin
-1.3est.
TEN perspective
Push chance
3.0%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Titans
- Colts
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.083EPA / play-0.148
- 46.6%Success rate37.9%
- +0.104EPA / dropback-0.165
- +0.052EPA / rush-0.117
- 8.1%Explosive rate7.3%
- +0.62CPOE-3.50
- 43.0%Third-down rate32.0%
- 71.1%Red-zone TD rate58.5%
- 2.74Points / drive1.36
- 2.0%Turnover rate1.7%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
IND lead 34–15 since 1999
IND have won 6 straight. Meetings average 46.3 points. TEN are 20-29 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Colts
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Daniel Jones | 18/25 | 228 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jonathan Taylor | 17 | 102 | 6.0 | 3 |
| Daniel Jones | 4 | 27 | 6.8 | 0 |
| Tyler Goodson | 2 | 6 | 3.0 | 0 |
| DJ Giddens | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Anthony Richardson | 4 | -1 | -0.3 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Pittman | 6 | 6 | 73 | 1 |
| Alec Pierce | 4 | 5 | 67 | 0 |
| Tyler Warren | 3 | 5 | 38 | 0 |
| Josh Downs | 2 | 3 | 34 | 0 |
| Jonathan Taylor | 3 | 4 | 16 | 0 |
| Adonai Mitchell | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Titans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cam Ward | 23/38 | 219 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tony Pollard | 16 | 45 | 2.8 | 1 |
| Julius Chestnut | 2 | 26 | 13.0 | 0 |
| Cam Ward | 3 | 12 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Chimere Dike | 2 | 3 | 1.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chig Okonkwo | 5 | 6 | 66 | 0 |
| Elic Ayomanor | 4 | 5 | 38 | 1 |
| Tyler Lockett | 4 | 4 | 37 | 0 |
| Calvin Ridley | 1 | 7 | 27 | 0 |
| Gunnar Helm | 3 | 3 | 27 | 0 |
| Tony Pollard | 2 | 4 | 14 | 0 |
| Van Jefferson | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 |
| Chimere Dike | 3 | 4 | 2 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Titans; negative favour Colts.
Half-point at risk
3.02%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
45.7%
Expected total
42.6est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.96
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-1.26