Closing spread
DAL -7
Total
41.5
Model margin
+4.2est.
DAL perspective
Push chance
4.9%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Cowboys
- Cardinals
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.126EPA / play-0.074
- 39.0%Success rate41.5%
- -0.066EPA / dropback-0.085
- -0.243EPA / rush-0.061
- 7.4%Explosive rate8.6%
- 36.7%Third-down rate36.8%
- 39.7%Red-zone TD rate46.9%
- 1.04Points / drive1.35
- 4.0%Turnover rate3.7%
- +0.104EPA / play allowed+0.022
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
ARI lead 12–7 since 1999
ARI have won 4 straight. Meetings average 40.6 points. DAL are 9-10 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Cardinals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jake Plummer | 20/31 | 180 | 0 | 3 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thomas Jones | 11 | 50 | 4.5 | 0 |
| Jake Plummer | 3 | 36 | 12.0 | 0 |
| Michael Pittman | 9 | 21 | 2.3 | 1 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| David Boston | 3 | 6 | 50 | 0 |
| Mac Cody | 2 | 3 | 24 | 0 |
| Chris Gedney | 1 | 2 | 24 | 0 |
| Michael Pittman | 7 | 8 | 24 | 0 |
| MarTay Jenkins | 1 | 1 | 20 | 0 |
| Thomas Jones | 2 | 2 | 15 | 0 |
| Frank Sanders | 2 | 6 | 14 | 0 |
| Terry Hardy | 1 | 2 | 4 | 0 |
Cowboys
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Troy Aikman | 9/15 | 154 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Emmitt Smith | 24 | 112 | 4.7 | 1 |
| Chris Warren | 10 | 64 | 6.4 | 2 |
| Raghib Ismail | 1 | 11 | 11.0 | 0 |
| Randall Cunningham | 2 | -1 | -0.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| James McKnight | 3 | 4 | 75 | 0 |
| Raghib Ismail | 2 | 5 | 46 | 1 |
| Jackie Harris | 1 | 3 | 13 | 0 |
| Chris Warren | 1 | 1 | 11 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Cowboys; negative favour Cardinals.
Half-point at risk
4.89%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
60.3%
Expected total
42.6est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.63
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+4.19