2000 · Week 8 · Division

Final

Cardinals

Arizona

QB Jake Plummer

7·48

Cowboys

Dallas

QB Troy Aikman

Texas Stadium · outdoors · astroturf · 70°F · wind 10mph

Closing spread

DAL -7

Total

41.5

Model margin

+4.2est.

DAL perspective

Push chance

4.9%est.

the line sits on a key number

Win probability

  • Cowboys
  • Cardinals

How each play moved the game.

Cowboys winsCardinals wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Cardinalsedge mapCowboys
  • -0.126EPA / play-0.074
  • 39.0%Success rate41.5%
  • -0.066EPA / dropback-0.085
  • -0.243EPA / rush-0.061
  • 7.4%Explosive rate8.6%
  • 36.7%Third-down rate36.8%
  • 39.7%Red-zone TD rate46.9%
  • 1.04Points / drive1.35
  • 4.0%Turnover rate3.7%
  • +0.104EPA / play allowed+0.022

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

ARI lead 12–7 since 1999

ARI have won 4 straight. Meetings average 40.6 points. DAL are 9-10 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W9ARI @ DAL27–17ARI
2023 · W3DAL @ ARI16–28ARI
2021 · W17ARI @ DAL25–22ARI
2020 · W6ARI @ DAL38–10ARI
2017 · W3DAL @ ARI28–17DAL
2014 · W9ARI @ DAL28–17ARI
2011 · W13DAL @ ARI13–19ARI
2010 · W16DAL @ ARI26–27ARI

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultARI–DAL
DALQ1 15:0038Punt0–0
ARIQ1 13:2438Punt0–0
DALQ1 11:0230Punt0–0
ARIQ1 10:05942Turnover0–0
DALQ1 4:43316Touchdown0–7
ARIQ1 3:263-1Opp touchdown0–14
DALQ1 1:0100Opp touchdown0–14
ARIQ1 1:0134Punt0–14
DALQ2 14:52773Touchdown0–21
ARIQ2 10:52722Turnover on downs0–21
DALQ2 6:401238Field goal0–24
ARIQ2 1:30220Turnover0–24
DALQ2 1:17538Field goal0–27
ARIQ3 15:0039Punt0–27
DALQ3 12:461082Touchdown0–34
ARIQ3 6:5020Turnover0–34
DALQ3 6:30525Touchdown0–41
ARIQ3 4:033-5Punt0–41
DALQ3 2:16961Touchdown0–48
ARIQ4 12:21867Turnover on downs0–48
DALQ4 8:5437Punt0–48
ARIQ4 6:46346Touchdown7–48
DALQ4 5:2900Turnover on downs7–48
ARIQ4 5:241164Turnover on downs7–48
DALQ4 1:022-1End of half7–48

Box score

Individual performances

Cardinals

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jake Plummer20/3118003

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Thomas Jones11504.50
Jake Plummer33612.00
Michael Pittman9212.31

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
David Boston36500
Mac Cody23240
Chris Gedney12240
Michael Pittman78240
MarTay Jenkins11200
Thomas Jones22150
Frank Sanders26140
Terry Hardy1240

Cowboys

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Troy Aikman9/1515420

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Emmitt Smith241124.71
Chris Warren10646.42
Raghib Ismail11111.00
Randall Cunningham2-1-0.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
James McKnight34750
Raghib Ismail25461
Jackie Harris13130
Chris Warren11110

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +73.7%6.6%7.5%3.2%4.9%3.2%2.9%

Positive margins favour Cowboys; negative favour Cardinals.

Half-point at risk

4.89%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

60.3%

Expected total

42.6est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.63
  • Home-field advantage+2.56
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+4.19