Closing spread
OAK -7.5
Total
44
Model margin
+6.3est.
OAK perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Raiders
- Seahawks
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
All square 6–6 since 1999
Meetings average 45.8 points. OAK are 8-4 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | SEA–OAK |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LV | Q1 | 3 | 7 | Punt | 0–0 |
| SEA | Q1 13:09 | 6 | 49 | Field goal | 3–0 |
| LV | Q1 10:47 | 10 | 44 | Punt | 3–0 |
| SEA | Q1 5:51 | 4 | 11 | Turnover | 3–0 |
| LV | Q1 4:33 | 5 | 19 | Touchdown | 3–7 |
| SEA | Q1 3:05 | 7 | 26 | Turnover on downs | 3–7 |
| LV | Q2 14:52 | 6 | 54 | Touchdown | 3–14 |
| SEA | Q2 11:51 | 6 | 21 | Punt | 3–20 |
| LV | Q2 7:48 | 1 | 80 | Touchdown | 3–21 |
| SEA | Q2 7:36 | 8 | 27 | Punt | 3–21 |
| LV | Q2 3:33 | 3 | 8 | Punt | 3–21 |
| SEA | Q2 1:48 | 9 | 34 | Missed field goal | 3–21 |
| LV | Q2 0:11 | 1 | -1 | End of half | 3–21 |
| SEA | Q3 15:00 | 7 | 35 | Punt | 3–21 |
| LV | Q3 11:13 | 7 | 47 | Turnover | 3–21 |
| SEA | Q3 6:39 | 3 | 9 | Punt | 3–21 |
| LV | Q3 5:07 | 7 | 36 | Punt | 3–21 |
| SEA | Q3 1:18 | 1 | 0 | Turnover | 3–21 |
| LV | Q3 1:15 | 5 | 11 | Field goal | 3–24 |
| SEA | Q4 13:33 | 3 | 11 | Punt | 3–24 |
| LV | Q4 12:05 | 6 | 73 | Touchdown | 3–31 |
| SEA | Q4 8:28 | 11 | 51 | Turnover | 3–31 |
| LV | Q4 3:20 | 3 | 2 | Punt | 3–31 |
| SEA | Q4 1:06 | 3 | 9 | End of half | 3–31 |
Box score
Individual performances
Seahawks
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jon Kitna | 11/18 | 85 | 0 | 0 |
| Brock Huard | 4/12 | 64 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ricky Watters | 17 | 95 | 5.6 | 0 |
| Shaun Alexander | 9 | 29 | 3.2 | 0 |
| Jon Kitna | 5 | 9 | 1.8 | 0 |
| Brock Huard | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ricky Watters | 2 | 4 | 56 | 0 |
| Itula Mili | 5 | 9 | 33 | 0 |
| Sean Dawkins | 2 | 4 | 28 | 0 |
| Darrell Jackson | 4 | 9 | 26 | 0 |
| Christian Fauria | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
| Shaun Alexander | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Raiders; negative favour Seahawks.
Half-point at risk
2.23%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
65.7%
Expected total
45.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.92
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment+1.82
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+6.30
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.