Closing spread
OAK -7.5
Total
44
Model margin
+6.3est.
OAK perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Raiders
- Seahawks
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
All square 6–6 since 1999
Meetings average 45.8 points. OAK are 8-4 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Seahawks
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jon Kitna | 11/18 | 85 | 0 | 0 |
| Brock Huard | 4/12 | 64 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ricky Watters | 17 | 95 | 5.6 | 0 |
| Shaun Alexander | 9 | 29 | 3.2 | 0 |
| Jon Kitna | 5 | 9 | 1.8 | 0 |
| Brock Huard | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ricky Watters | 2 | 4 | 56 | 0 |
| Itula Mili | 5 | 9 | 33 | 0 |
| Sean Dawkins | 2 | 4 | 28 | 0 |
| Darrell Jackson | 4 | 9 | 26 | 0 |
| Christian Fauria | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
| Shaun Alexander | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Raiders; negative favour Seahawks.
Half-point at risk
2.23%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
65.7%
Expected total
45.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.92
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment+1.82
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+6.30
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.