Closing spread
MIN -1
Total
41.5
Model margin
+3.6est.
NYG perspective
Push chance
2.1%est.
Win probability
- Giants
- Vikings
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.102EPA / play+0.016
- 44.7%Success rate40.1%
- +0.184EPA / dropback+0.137
- -0.026EPA / rush-0.130
- 10.6%Explosive rate8.7%
- 46.0%Third-down rate39.9%
- 67.4%Red-zone TD rate67.6%
- 2.14Points / drive1.73
- 2.6%Turnover rate2.1%
- +0.083EPA / play allowed-0.065
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
MIN lead 12–7 since 1999
MIN have won 2 straight. Meetings average 43.7 points. NYG are 9-10 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Vikings
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Daunte Culpepper | 13/28 | 78 | 0 | 3 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Robert Smith | 7 | 44 | 6.3 | 0 |
| Daunte Culpepper | 2 | 10 | 5.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cris Carter | 3 | 7 | 24 | 0 |
| Chris Walsh | 3 | 3 | 23 | 0 |
| Randy Moss | 2 | 7 | 18 | 0 |
| Johnny McWilliams | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 |
| Andrew Jordan | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
| Matt Hatchette | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 |
| John Davis | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Robert Smith | 2 | 4 | -2 | 0 |
Giants
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kerry Collins | 28/39 | 381 | 5 | 2 |
| Jason Garrett | 1/1 | 4 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tiki Barber | 12 | 69 | 5.8 | 0 |
| Joe Montgomery | 16 | 43 | 2.7 | 0 |
| Ron Dayne | 10 | 29 | 2.9 | 0 |
| Jason Garrett | 3 | -3 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ike Hilliard | 10 | 13 | 155 | 2 |
| Amani Toomer | 6 | 7 | 88 | 1 |
| Ron Dixon | 2 | 4 | 62 | 0 |
| Greg Comella | 4 | 4 | 36 | 1 |
| Tiki Barber | 4 | 5 | 21 | 0 |
| Joe Jurevicius | 2 | 3 | 15 | 1 |
| Ron Dayne | 1 | 2 | 8 | 0 |
| Pete Mitchell | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Giants; negative favour Vikings.
Half-point at risk
2.05%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
58.6%
Expected total
45.7est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.08
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.08
- Expected margin+3.56