2000 · CON

Final

Vikings

Minnesota

QB Daunte Culpepper

0·41

Giants

New York

QB Kerry Collins

Giants Stadium · outdoors · grass · 35°F · wind 5mph

Closing spread

MIN -1

Total

41.5

Model margin

+3.6est.

NYG perspective

Push chance

2.1%est.

Win probability

  • Giants
  • Vikings

How each play moved the game.

Giants winsVikings wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Vikingsedge mapGiants
  • +0.102EPA / play+0.016
  • 44.7%Success rate40.1%
  • +0.184EPA / dropback+0.137
  • -0.026EPA / rush-0.130
  • 10.6%Explosive rate8.7%
  • 46.0%Third-down rate39.9%
  • 67.4%Red-zone TD rate67.6%
  • 2.14Points / drive1.73
  • 2.6%Turnover rate2.1%
  • +0.083EPA / play allowed-0.065

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

MIN lead 12–7 since 1999

MIN have won 2 straight. Meetings average 43.7 points. NYG are 9-10 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W16MIN @ NYG16–13MIN
2024 · W1MIN @ NYG28–6MIN
2022 · playoffsNYG @ MIN31–24NYG
2022 · W16NYG @ MIN24–27MIN
2019 · W5MIN @ NYG28–10MIN
2016 · W4NYG @ MIN10–24MIN
2015 · W16NYG @ MIN17–49MIN
2013 · W7MIN @ NYG7–23NYG

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultMIN–NYG
NYGQ1 15:00474Touchdown0–7
MINQ1 13:0300Touchdown0–13
NYGQ1 12:53118Touchdown0–14
MINQ1 12:47419Punt0–14
NYGQ1 10:37537Turnover0–14
MINQ1 8:13415Turnover0–14
NYGQ1 6:04620Turnover0–14
MINQ1 4:3933Punt0–14
NYGQ1 3:06537Field goal0–17
MINQ2 14:5642Punt0–17
NYGQ2 13:06571Touchdown0–24
MINQ2 10:2439Punt0–24
NYGQ2 8:491146Field goal0–27
MINQ2 5:224-3Punt0–27
NYGQ2 3:311083Touchdown0–34
MINQ2 0:1220End of half0–34
MINQ3 15:001-3Turnover0–34
NYGQ3 14:41529Touchdown0–41
MINQ3 12:06225Turnover0–41
NYGQ3 11:21846Missed field goal0–41
MINQ3 6:03823Punt0–41
NYGQ3 2:59519Punt0–41
MINQ4 14:53724Turnover0–41
NYGQ4 12:531938End of half0–41

Box score

Individual performances

Vikings

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Daunte Culpepper13/287803

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Robert Smith7446.30
Daunte Culpepper2105.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Cris Carter37240
Chris Walsh33230
Randy Moss27180
Johnny McWilliams1190
Andrew Jordan1140
Matt Hatchette1220
John Davis0100
Robert Smith24-20

Giants

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Kerry Collins28/3938152
Jason Garrett1/1400

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Tiki Barber12695.80
Joe Montgomery16432.70
Ron Dayne10292.90
Jason Garrett3-3-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Ike Hilliard10131552
Amani Toomer67881
Ron Dixon24620
Greg Comella44361
Tiki Barber45210
Joe Jurevicius23151
Ron Dayne1280
Pete Mitchell0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -13.8%6.8%7.5%3.2%4.8%3.1%2.8%

Positive margins favour Giants; negative favour Vikings.

Half-point at risk

2.05%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

58.6%

Expected total

45.7est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.08
  • Home-field advantage+2.56
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential-0.08
  • Expected margin+3.56