Closing spread
MIN -10
Total
45
Model margin
+4.2est.
MIN perspective
Push chance
3.2%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Vikings
- Panthers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.195EPA / play-0.050
- 35.9%Success rate42.2%
- -0.169EPA / dropback-0.012
- -0.247EPA / rush-0.133
- 7.0%Explosive rate7.6%
- 30.3%Third-down rate42.5%
- 45.8%Red-zone TD rate49.2%
- 0.78Points / drive1.40
- 3.1%Turnover rate3.7%
- +0.016EPA / play allowed+0.044
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
MIN lead 9–6 since 1999
MIN have won 3 straight. Meetings average 42.3 points. MIN are 8-7 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Panthers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Weinke | 13/22 | 223 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nick Goings | 25 | 86 | 3.4 | 0 |
| Tim Biakabutuka | 5 | 7 | 1.4 | 0 |
| Chris Weinke | 6 | -3 | -0.5 | 1 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wesley Walls | 3 | 4 | 74 | 0 |
| Muhsin Muhammad | 4 | 7 | 69 | 1 |
| Isaac Byrd | 1 | 2 | 31 | 0 |
| Steve Smith | 1 | 1 | 16 | 0 |
| Donald Hayes | 1 | 1 | 13 | 0 |
| Tim Biakabutuka | 2 | 2 | 12 | 0 |
| Kris Mangum | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Nick Goings | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Vikings
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Daunte Culpepper | 22/38 | 236 | 1 | 3 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Daunte Culpepper | 12 | 57 | 4.8 | 1 |
| Michael Bennett | 11 | 37 | 3.4 | 0 |
| Doug Chapman | 3 | 15 | 5.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Byron Chamberlain | 7 | 10 | 83 | 0 |
| Cris Carter | 5 | 6 | 44 | 1 |
| Randy Moss | 1 | 7 | 28 | 0 |
| Jake Reed | 1 | 4 | 26 | 0 |
| Jimmy Kleinsasser | 3 | 3 | 22 | 0 |
| Michael Bennett | 2 | 4 | 18 | 0 |
| Doug Chapman | 1 | 1 | -3 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Vikings; negative favour Panthers.
Half-point at risk
3.18%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
60.2%
Expected total
44.1est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.61
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+4.18