2001 · Week 1

Final

Panthers

Carolina

QB Chris Weinke

24·13

Vikings

Minnesota

QB Daunte Culpepper

Hubert H. Humphrey Metrodome · dome · astroturf

Closing spread

MIN -10

Total

45

Model margin

+4.2est.

MIN perspective

Push chance

3.2%est.

the line sits on a key number

Win probability

  • Vikings
  • Panthers

How each play moved the game.

Vikings winsPanthers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Panthersedge mapVikings
  • -0.195EPA / play-0.050
  • 35.9%Success rate42.2%
  • -0.169EPA / dropback-0.012
  • -0.247EPA / rush-0.133
  • 7.0%Explosive rate7.6%
  • 30.3%Third-down rate42.5%
  • 45.8%Red-zone TD rate49.2%
  • 0.78Points / drive1.40
  • 3.1%Turnover rate3.7%
  • +0.016EPA / play allowed+0.044

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

MIN lead 9–6 since 1999

MIN have won 3 straight. Meetings average 42.3 points. MIN are 8-7 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2023 · W4MIN @ CAR21–13MIN
2021 · W6MIN @ CAR34–28MIN
2020 · W12CAR @ MIN27–28MIN
2017 · W14MIN @ CAR24–31CAR
2016 · W3MIN @ CAR22–10MIN
2014 · W13CAR @ MIN13–31MIN
2013 · W6CAR @ MIN35–10CAR
2011 · W8MIN @ CAR24–21MIN

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultCAR–MIN
CARQ1 15:0000Touchdown7–0
MINQ1 14:43630Turnover7–0
CARQ1 12:1531Punt7–0
MINQ1 10:3633Punt7–0
CARQ1 9:001559Turnover7–0
MINQ1 1:1736Punt7–0
CARQ1 0:17641Field goal10–0
MINQ2 11:43312Turnover10–0
CARQ2 9:5135Punt10–0
MINQ2 8:19840Missed field goal10–0
CARQ2 3:1134Punt10–0
MINQ2 1:45960Turnover10–0
CARQ2 0:161-1End of half10–0
MINQ3 15:00415Punt10–0
CARQ3 13:1731Punt10–0
MINQ3 12:18651Touchdown10–7
CARQ3 9:09325Turnover10–7
MINQ3 8:08549Touchdown10–13
CARQ3 6:05780Touchdown17–13
MINQ3 2:5334Punt17–13
CARQ3 1:40520Punt17–13
MINQ4 13:4710Turnover17–13
CARQ4 13:37834Touchdown24–13
MINQ4 9:52726Punt24–13
CARQ4 7:1633Punt24–13
MINQ4 5:40747Turnover24–13
CARQ4 3:32619End of half24–13

Box score

Individual performances

Panthers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Chris Weinke13/2222311

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Nick Goings25863.40
Tim Biakabutuka571.40
Chris Weinke6-3-0.51

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Wesley Walls34740
Muhsin Muhammad47691
Isaac Byrd12310
Steve Smith11160
Donald Hayes11130
Tim Biakabutuka22120
Kris Mangum0100
Nick Goings0100

Vikings

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Daunte Culpepper22/3823613

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Daunte Culpepper12574.81
Michael Bennett11373.40
Doug Chapman3155.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Byron Chamberlain710830
Cris Carter56441
Randy Moss17280
Jake Reed14260
Jimmy Kleinsasser33220
Michael Bennett24180
Doug Chapman11-30

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +106.6%7.5%3.2%4.9%3.2%2.9%

Positive margins favour Vikings; negative favour Panthers.

Half-point at risk

3.18%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

60.2%

Expected total

44.1est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.61
  • Home-field advantage+2.56
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+4.18