2011 · Week 8

Final

Vikings

Minnesota

QB Christian Ponder

24·21

Panthers

Carolina

QB Cam Newton

Bank of America Stadium · outdoors · grass · 54°F · wind 6mph

Closing spread

CAR -3

Total

47

Model margin

+3.9est.

CAR perspective

Push chance

7.5%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Vikings

Panthers

Win probability

  • Panthers
  • Vikings

How each play moved the game.

Panthers winsVikings wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Vikingsedge mapPanthers
  • -0.054EPA / play+0.102
  • 39.2%Success rate44.8%
  • -0.073EPA / dropback+0.093
  • -0.026EPA / rush+0.115
  • 10.1%Explosive rate12.3%
  • -5.80CPOE-0.04
  • 38.8%Third-down rate38.7%
  • 63.1%Red-zone TD rate64.4%
  • 1.60Points / drive2.08
  • 2.4%Turnover rate2.2%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

MIN lead 9–6 since 1999

MIN have won 3 straight. Meetings average 42.3 points. CAR are 7-8 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2023 · W4MIN @ CAR21–13MIN
2021 · W6MIN @ CAR34–28MIN
2020 · W12CAR @ MIN27–28MIN
2017 · W14MIN @ CAR24–31CAR
2016 · W3MIN @ CAR22–10MIN
2014 · W13CAR @ MIN13–31MIN
2013 · W6CAR @ MIN35–10CAR
2009 · W15MIN @ CAR7–26CAR

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultMIN–CAR
MINQ1 15:0030Missed field goal0–0
CARQ1 13:261-14Turnover0–0
MINQ1 13:13216Touchdown7–0
CARQ1 12:341359Punt7–0
MINQ1 6:41731Punt7–0
CARQ1 2:49985Touchdown7–7
MINQ2 13:2237Punt7–7
CARQ2 11:59549Touchdown7–14
MINQ2 10:181063Turnover7–14
CARQ2 4:37949Turnover7–14
MINQ2 1:03239Touchdown14–14
CARQ2 0:4214End of half14–14
CARQ3 15:00975Touchdown14–21
MINQ3 11:07311Punt14–21
CARQ3 9:1438Punt14–21
MINQ3 7:391385Touchdown21–21
CARQ3 1:5839Punt21–21
MINQ4 14:49926Punt21–21
CARQ4 11:2438Punt21–21
MINQ4 9:531272Field goal24–21
CARQ4 2:431173Missed field goal24–21
MINQ4 0:2600End of half24–21

Box score

Individual performances

Vikings

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Christian Ponder18/2823610

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Adrian Peterson20834.21
Toby Gerhart5265.20
Percy Harvin4194.81
Christian Ponder441.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Adrian Peterson55761
Percy Harvin45580
Visanthe Shiancoe34370
Michael Jenkins22300
Devin Aromashodu26200
Kyle Rudolph25150

Panthers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Cam Newton22/3529030

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Cam Newton6538.80
Jonathan Stewart13493.80
DeAngelo Williams7263.70
Steve Smith11212.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Steve Smith791001
Greg Olsen47731
Legedu Naanee57490
Brandon LaFell12440
DeAngelo Williams22130
Jonathan Stewart23100
Jeremy Shockey1311

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +33.7%6.7%7.5%3.2%4.9%3.2%2.8%

Positive margins favour Panthers; negative favour Vikings.

Half-point at risk

7.51%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

59.4%

Expected total

46.2est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.38
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+3.87