Closing spread
CAR -3
Total
47
Model margin
+3.9est.
CAR perspective
Push chance
7.5%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Panthers
- Vikings
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.054EPA / play+0.102
- 39.2%Success rate44.8%
- -0.073EPA / dropback+0.093
- -0.026EPA / rush+0.115
- 10.1%Explosive rate12.3%
- -5.80CPOE-0.04
- 38.8%Third-down rate38.7%
- 63.1%Red-zone TD rate64.4%
- 1.60Points / drive2.08
- 2.4%Turnover rate2.2%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
MIN lead 9–6 since 1999
MIN have won 3 straight. Meetings average 42.3 points. CAR are 7-8 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Vikings
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Christian Ponder | 18/28 | 236 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adrian Peterson | 20 | 83 | 4.2 | 1 |
| Toby Gerhart | 5 | 26 | 5.2 | 0 |
| Percy Harvin | 4 | 19 | 4.8 | 1 |
| Christian Ponder | 4 | 4 | 1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adrian Peterson | 5 | 5 | 76 | 1 |
| Percy Harvin | 4 | 5 | 58 | 0 |
| Visanthe Shiancoe | 3 | 4 | 37 | 0 |
| Michael Jenkins | 2 | 2 | 30 | 0 |
| Devin Aromashodu | 2 | 6 | 20 | 0 |
| Kyle Rudolph | 2 | 5 | 15 | 0 |
Panthers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cam Newton | 22/35 | 290 | 3 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cam Newton | 6 | 53 | 8.8 | 0 |
| Jonathan Stewart | 13 | 49 | 3.8 | 0 |
| DeAngelo Williams | 7 | 26 | 3.7 | 0 |
| Steve Smith | 1 | 12 | 12.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Steve Smith | 7 | 9 | 100 | 1 |
| Greg Olsen | 4 | 7 | 73 | 1 |
| Legedu Naanee | 5 | 7 | 49 | 0 |
| Brandon LaFell | 1 | 2 | 44 | 0 |
| DeAngelo Williams | 2 | 2 | 13 | 0 |
| Jonathan Stewart | 2 | 3 | 10 | 0 |
| Jeremy Shockey | 1 | 3 | 1 | 1 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Panthers; negative favour Vikings.
Half-point at risk
7.51%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
59.4%
Expected total
46.2est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.38
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+3.87