Closing spread
CAR -6
Total
43
Model margin
+0.6est.
CAR perspective
Push chance
3.0%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Panthers
- Vikings
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.042EPA / play-0.048
- 42.5%Success rate40.9%
- +0.075EPA / dropback-0.038
- -0.253EPA / rush-0.062
- 7.1%Explosive rate8.7%
- +3.80CPOE-4.49
- 38.4%Third-down rate36.5%
- 49.1%Red-zone TD rate62.6%
- 1.65Points / drive1.61
- 1.3%Turnover rate2.5%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
MIN lead 9–6 since 1999
MIN have won 3 straight. Meetings average 42.3 points. CAR are 7-8 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Vikings
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sam Bradford | 18/28 | 171 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jerick McKinnon | 16 | 45 | 2.8 | 0 |
| Matt Asiata | 6 | 15 | 2.5 | 0 |
| Sam Bradford | 2 | -2 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyle Rudolph | 7 | 10 | 70 | 1 |
| Stefon Diggs | 4 | 7 | 40 | 0 |
| Adam Thielen | 3 | 4 | 29 | 0 |
| Rhett Ellison | 1 | 1 | 18 | 0 |
| Cordarrelle Patterson | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 |
| Matt Asiata | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
| Jerick McKinnon | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 |
| Charles D. Johnson | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Panthers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cam Newton | 21/35 | 262 | 0 | 3 |
| Derek Anderson | 1/1 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cameron Artis-Payne | 12 | 47 | 3.9 | 0 |
| Cam Newton | 7 | 26 | 3.7 | 1 |
| Fozzy Whittaker | 5 | 22 | 4.4 | 0 |
| Ted Ginn | 2 | 5 | 2.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Greg Olsen | 6 | 10 | 64 | 0 |
| Ted Ginn | 3 | 7 | 62 | 0 |
| Corey Brown | 4 | 5 | 57 | 0 |
| Fozzy Whittaker | 5 | 6 | 34 | 0 |
| Ed Dickson | 1 | 1 | 23 | 0 |
| Cameron Artis-Payne | 1 | 1 | 11 | 0 |
| Kelvin Benjamin | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Devin Funchess | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Panthers; negative favour Vikings.
Half-point at risk
2.97%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
50.6%
Expected total
43.7est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.17
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+0.57