2016 · Week 3

Final

Vikings

Minnesota

QB Sam Bradford

22·10

Panthers

Carolina

QB Cam Newton

Bank of America Stadium · outdoors · grass · 80°F · wind 0mph

Closing spread

CAR -6

Total

43

Model margin

+0.6est.

CAR perspective

Push chance

3.0%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Vikings

Panthers

Win probability

  • Panthers
  • Vikings

How each play moved the game.

Panthers winsVikings wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Vikingsedge mapPanthers
  • -0.042EPA / play-0.048
  • 42.5%Success rate40.9%
  • +0.075EPA / dropback-0.038
  • -0.253EPA / rush-0.062
  • 7.1%Explosive rate8.7%
  • +3.80CPOE-4.49
  • 38.4%Third-down rate36.5%
  • 49.1%Red-zone TD rate62.6%
  • 1.65Points / drive1.61
  • 1.3%Turnover rate2.5%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

MIN lead 9–6 since 1999

MIN have won 3 straight. Meetings average 42.3 points. CAR are 7-8 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2023 · W4MIN @ CAR21–13MIN
2021 · W6MIN @ CAR34–28MIN
2020 · W12CAR @ MIN27–28MIN
2017 · W14MIN @ CAR24–31CAR
2014 · W13CAR @ MIN13–31MIN
2013 · W6CAR @ MIN35–10CAR
2011 · W8MIN @ CAR24–21MIN
2009 · W15MIN @ CAR7–26CAR

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultMIN–CAR
CARQ1 15:00653Field goal0–3
MINQ1 10:5233Punt0–3
CARQ1 9:11862Touchdown0–10
MINQ1 5:2066Punt0–10
CARQ1 2:573-2Safety2–10
MINQ1 1:44525Punt2–10
CARQ2 14:48956Punt2–10
MINQ2 9:2236Punt2–10
CARQ2 7:5935Missed field goal2–10
MINQ2 6:263-5Punt2–10
CARQ2 5:0034Opp touchdown8–10
CARQ2 3:211027Turnover8–10
MINQ2 0:0700End of half8–10
MINQ3 15:001079Touchdown16–10
CARQ3 9:431131Punt16–10
MINQ3 3:5535Punt16–10
CARQ3 2:303-1Turnover16–10
MINQ3 1:00633Field goal19–10
CARQ4 13:144-7Punt19–10
MINQ4 11:021054Field goal22–10
CARQ4 5:071266Turnover22–10
MINQ4 2:2137Punt22–10
CARQ4 1:53512Turnover on downs22–10
MINQ4 0:2100End of half22–10

Box score

Individual performances

Vikings

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Sam Bradford18/2817110

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Jerick McKinnon16452.80
Matt Asiata6152.50
Sam Bradford2-2-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Kyle Rudolph710701
Stefon Diggs47400
Adam Thielen34290
Rhett Ellison11180
Cordarrelle Patterson1180
Matt Asiata1140
Jerick McKinnon1220
Charles D. Johnson0200

Panthers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Cam Newton21/3526203
Derek Anderson1/1300

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Cameron Artis-Payne12473.90
Cam Newton7263.71
Fozzy Whittaker5224.40
Ted Ginn252.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Greg Olsen610640
Ted Ginn37620
Corey Brown45570
Fozzy Whittaker56340
Ed Dickson11230
Cameron Artis-Payne11110
Kelvin Benjamin0100
Devin Funchess0200

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +64.3%2.9%7.3%7.4%3.0%4.5%2.8%

Positive margins favour Panthers; negative favour Vikings.

Half-point at risk

2.97%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

50.6%

Expected total

43.7est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.17
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+0.57