2014 · Week 13

Final

Panthers

Carolina

QB Cam Newton

13·31

Vikings

Minnesota

QB Teddy Bridgewater

TCF Bank Stadium · outdoors · fieldturf · 12°F · wind 17mph

Closing spread

MIN -2.5

Total

41.5

Model margin

+0.1est.

MIN perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Panthers

Vikings

Win probability

  • Vikings
  • Panthers

How each play moved the game.

Vikings winsPanthers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Panthersedge mapVikings
  • -0.007EPA / play-0.034
  • 44.6%Success rate42.2%
  • +0.059EPA / dropback-0.018
  • -0.104EPA / rush-0.061
  • 8.5%Explosive rate7.6%
  • -1.27CPOE-2.18
  • 41.1%Third-down rate39.7%
  • 57.3%Red-zone TD rate56.2%
  • 1.63Points / drive1.59
  • 1.9%Turnover rate1.9%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

MIN lead 9–6 since 1999

MIN have won 3 straight. Meetings average 42.3 points. MIN are 8-7 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2023 · W4MIN @ CAR21–13MIN
2021 · W6MIN @ CAR34–28MIN
2020 · W12CAR @ MIN27–28MIN
2017 · W14MIN @ CAR24–31CAR
2016 · W3MIN @ CAR22–10MIN
2013 · W6CAR @ MIN35–10CAR
2011 · W8MIN @ CAR24–21MIN
2009 · W15MIN @ CAR7–26CAR

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultCAR–MIN
CARQ1 15:003-3Punt0–0
MINQ1 12:48645Touchdown0–7
CARQ1 9:41619Opp touchdown0–14
CARQ1 7:001363Field goal3–14
MINQ1 0:37516Punt3–14
CARQ2 13:39835Opp touchdown3–21
CARQ2 9:351258Field goal6–21
MINQ2 3:281065Touchdown6–28
CARQ2 0:1600End of half6–28
MINQ3 15:0034Punt6–28
CARQ3 13:28880Touchdown13–28
MINQ3 9:153-4Punt13–28
CARQ3 7:4249Punt13–28
MINQ3 6:19953Punt13–28
CARQ3 1:20823Punt13–28
MINQ4 12:20519Field goal13–31
CARQ4 8:5543Punt13–31
MINQ4 6:5137Punt13–31
CARQ4 4:24646Turnover13–31
MINQ4 2:1835Punt13–31
CARQ4 0:19116End of half13–31

Box score

Individual performances

Panthers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Cam Newton18/3519411

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Jonathan Stewart12857.10
Cam Newton9495.40
DeAngelo Williams7213.00
Fozzy Whittaker11616.00
Corey Brown144.00
De'Andre Presley1-2-2.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Greg Olsen59590
Kelvin Benjamin512560
Corey Brown24341
Jonathan Stewart22250
Jerricho Cotchery25200
De'Andre Presley0100

Vikings

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Teddy Bridgewater15/2113820

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Matt Asiata14523.70
Ben Tate5153.00
Teddy Bridgewater2126.00
Joe Banyard284.00
Jarius Wright155.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Greg Jennings56451
Charles D. Johnson24410
Jarius Wright22400
Kyle Rudolph2371
Matt Asiata4450
Cordarrelle Patterson0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +2.52.7%4.4%2.9%7.3%7.4%2.9%4.4%2.7%

Positive margins favour Vikings; negative favour Panthers.

Half-point at risk

7.36%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

49.3%

Expected total

44.9est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.83
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential-0.56
  • Expected margin+0.10