Closing spread
MIN -2.5
Total
41.5
Model margin
+0.1est.
MIN perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Vikings
- Panthers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.007EPA / play-0.034
- 44.6%Success rate42.2%
- +0.059EPA / dropback-0.018
- -0.104EPA / rush-0.061
- 8.5%Explosive rate7.6%
- -1.27CPOE-2.18
- 41.1%Third-down rate39.7%
- 57.3%Red-zone TD rate56.2%
- 1.63Points / drive1.59
- 1.9%Turnover rate1.9%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
MIN lead 9–6 since 1999
MIN have won 3 straight. Meetings average 42.3 points. MIN are 8-7 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Panthers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cam Newton | 18/35 | 194 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jonathan Stewart | 12 | 85 | 7.1 | 0 |
| Cam Newton | 9 | 49 | 5.4 | 0 |
| DeAngelo Williams | 7 | 21 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Fozzy Whittaker | 1 | 16 | 16.0 | 0 |
| Corey Brown | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
| De'Andre Presley | 1 | -2 | -2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Greg Olsen | 5 | 9 | 59 | 0 |
| Kelvin Benjamin | 5 | 12 | 56 | 0 |
| Corey Brown | 2 | 4 | 34 | 1 |
| Jonathan Stewart | 2 | 2 | 25 | 0 |
| Jerricho Cotchery | 2 | 5 | 20 | 0 |
| De'Andre Presley | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Vikings
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Teddy Bridgewater | 15/21 | 138 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Asiata | 14 | 52 | 3.7 | 0 |
| Ben Tate | 5 | 15 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Teddy Bridgewater | 2 | 12 | 6.0 | 0 |
| Joe Banyard | 2 | 8 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Jarius Wright | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Greg Jennings | 5 | 6 | 45 | 1 |
| Charles D. Johnson | 2 | 4 | 41 | 0 |
| Jarius Wright | 2 | 2 | 40 | 0 |
| Kyle Rudolph | 2 | 3 | 7 | 1 |
| Matt Asiata | 4 | 4 | 5 | 0 |
| Cordarrelle Patterson | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Vikings; negative favour Panthers.
Half-point at risk
7.36%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
49.3%
Expected total
44.9est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.83
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.56
- Expected margin+0.10