2021 · Week 6

Final / OT

Vikings

Minnesota

QB Kirk Cousins

34·28

Panthers

Carolina

QB Sam Darnold

Bank of America Stadium · outdoors · grass · 62°F · wind 7mph

Closing spread

MIN -2.5

Total

45.5

Model margin

-1.9est.

CAR perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Vikings

Panthers

Win probability

  • Panthers
  • Vikings

How each play moved the game.

Panthers winsVikings wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Vikingsedge mapPanthers
  • +0.018EPA / play-0.132
  • 41.6%Success rate41.2%
  • +0.102EPA / dropback-0.158
  • -0.111EPA / rush-0.089
  • 10.3%Explosive rate7.3%
  • +0.82CPOE-7.50
  • 36.6%Third-down rate36.1%
  • 67.7%Red-zone TD rate53.0%
  • 2.13Points / drive1.43
  • 1.2%Turnover rate2.6%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

MIN lead 9–6 since 1999

MIN have won 3 straight. Meetings average 42.3 points. CAR are 7-8 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2023 · W4MIN @ CAR21–13MIN
2020 · W12CAR @ MIN27–28MIN
2017 · W14MIN @ CAR24–31CAR
2016 · W3MIN @ CAR22–10MIN
2014 · W13CAR @ MIN13–31MIN
2013 · W6CAR @ MIN35–10CAR
2011 · W8MIN @ CAR24–21MIN
2009 · W15MIN @ CAR7–26CAR

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultMIN–CAR
CARQ1 15:0010Turnover0–0
MINQ1 14:48616Field goal3–0
CARQ1 11:52512Punt3–0
MINQ1 9:2625Turnover3–0
CARQ1 9:09218Touchdown3–7
MINQ1 8:271046Field goal6–7
CARQ1 2:5758Punt6–7
MINQ1 0:071083Touchdown12–7
CARQ2 10:5930Punt12–7
MINQ2 10:3332Punt12–7
CARQ2 8:43932Field goal12–10
MINQ2 4:2039Punt12–10
CARQ2 3:04938Punt12–10
MINQ2 0:44631End of half12–10
MINQ3 15:00410Punt12–10
CARQ3 13:1298Punt12–10
MINQ3 8:10416Opp touchdown12–17
MINQ3 6:49579Touchdown18–17
CARQ3 4:00115Turnover18–17
MINQ3 3:51439Touchdown25–17
CARQ3 2:24522Punt25–17
MINQ4 14:52869Field goal28–17
CARQ4 10:1563Turnover28–17
MINQ4 8:3036Missed field goal28–17
CARQ4 7:00655Field goal28–20
MINQ4 4:41439Punt28–20
CARQ4 2:091196Touchdown28–28
MINQ4 0:42546Missed field goal28–28
CARQ4 0:0100End of half28–28
MINOT975Touchdown34–28

Box score

Individual performances

Vikings

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Kirk Cousins33/4837330

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Dalvin Cook291404.81
Kirk Cousins2168.00
Alexander Mattison3103.30
Adam Thielen122.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Adam Thielen11131261
Justin Jefferson814800
K.J. Osborn67781
Tyler Conklin35710
Dede Westbrook23130
Dalvin Cook2230
Chris Herndon1121

Panthers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Sam Darnold17/4120711

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Chuba Hubbard16613.81
Sam Darnold44812.00
DJ Moore166.00
Royce Freeman133.00
Tommy Tremble100.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
DJ Moore513730
Ian Thomas12410
Brandon Zylstra33320
Shi Smith22200
Alex Erickson11170
Robbie Chosen311111
Terrace Marshall Jr.1290
Chuba Hubbard1340
Tommy Tremble0200

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -2.52.9%4.7%3.1%7.5%7.1%2.7%4.1%

Positive margins favour Panthers; negative favour Vikings.

Half-point at risk

2.14%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

44.0%

Expected total

42.9est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-3.58
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin-1.87