Closing spread
MIN -2.5
Total
45.5
Model margin
-1.9est.
CAR perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Panthers
- Vikings
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.018EPA / play-0.132
- 41.6%Success rate41.2%
- +0.102EPA / dropback-0.158
- -0.111EPA / rush-0.089
- 10.3%Explosive rate7.3%
- +0.82CPOE-7.50
- 36.6%Third-down rate36.1%
- 67.7%Red-zone TD rate53.0%
- 2.13Points / drive1.43
- 1.2%Turnover rate2.6%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
MIN lead 9–6 since 1999
MIN have won 3 straight. Meetings average 42.3 points. CAR are 7-8 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Vikings
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kirk Cousins | 33/48 | 373 | 3 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dalvin Cook | 29 | 140 | 4.8 | 1 |
| Kirk Cousins | 2 | 16 | 8.0 | 0 |
| Alexander Mattison | 3 | 10 | 3.3 | 0 |
| Adam Thielen | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adam Thielen | 11 | 13 | 126 | 1 |
| Justin Jefferson | 8 | 14 | 80 | 0 |
| K.J. Osborn | 6 | 7 | 78 | 1 |
| Tyler Conklin | 3 | 5 | 71 | 0 |
| Dede Westbrook | 2 | 3 | 13 | 0 |
| Dalvin Cook | 2 | 2 | 3 | 0 |
| Chris Herndon | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 |
Panthers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sam Darnold | 17/41 | 207 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chuba Hubbard | 16 | 61 | 3.8 | 1 |
| Sam Darnold | 4 | 48 | 12.0 | 0 |
| DJ Moore | 1 | 6 | 6.0 | 0 |
| Royce Freeman | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Tommy Tremble | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DJ Moore | 5 | 13 | 73 | 0 |
| Ian Thomas | 1 | 2 | 41 | 0 |
| Brandon Zylstra | 3 | 3 | 32 | 0 |
| Shi Smith | 2 | 2 | 20 | 0 |
| Alex Erickson | 1 | 1 | 17 | 0 |
| Robbie Chosen | 3 | 11 | 11 | 1 |
| Terrace Marshall Jr. | 1 | 2 | 9 | 0 |
| Chuba Hubbard | 1 | 3 | 4 | 0 |
| Tommy Tremble | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Panthers; negative favour Vikings.
Half-point at risk
2.14%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
44.0%
Expected total
42.9est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-3.58
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-1.87