2023 · Week 4

Final

Vikings

Minnesota

QB Kirk Cousins

21·13

Panthers

Carolina

QB Bryce Young

Bank of America Stadium · outdoors · grass · 78°F · wind 7mph

Closing spread

MIN -4.5

Total

46.5

Model margin

-4.7est.

CAR perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Vikings

Panthers

Win probability

  • Panthers
  • Vikings

How each play moved the game.

Panthers winsVikings wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Vikingsedge mapPanthers
  • -0.025EPA / play-0.160
  • 43.2%Success rate38.2%
  • +0.039EPA / dropback-0.163
  • -0.158EPA / rush-0.155
  • 9.4%Explosive rate6.3%
  • +2.80CPOE-1.80
  • 37.5%Third-down rate34.8%
  • 56.4%Red-zone TD rate42.3%
  • 1.84Points / drive1.00
  • 3.0%Turnover rate1.8%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

MIN lead 9–6 since 1999

MIN have won 3 straight. Meetings average 42.3 points. CAR are 7-8 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2021 · W6MIN @ CAR34–28MIN
2020 · W12CAR @ MIN27–28MIN
2017 · W14MIN @ CAR24–31CAR
2016 · W3MIN @ CAR22–10MIN
2014 · W13CAR @ MIN13–31MIN
2013 · W6CAR @ MIN35–10CAR
2011 · W8MIN @ CAR24–21MIN
2009 · W15MIN @ CAR7–26CAR

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultMIN–CAR
MINQ1 15:001040Opp touchdown0–7
MINQ1 10:2737Punt0–7
CARQ1 8:221563Field goal0–10
MINQ2 14:561064Touchdown7–10
CARQ2 9:43616Punt7–10
MINQ2 6:44410Punt7–10
CARQ2 4:41414Punt7–10
MINQ2 1:51654Turnover7–10
CARQ2 0:34318Field goal7–13
CARQ3 15:0038Punt7–13
MINQ3 12:35419Punt7–13
CARQ3 10:251238Opp touchdown14–13
CARQ3 3:583-9Punt14–13
MINQ3 1:44456Touchdown21–13
CARQ4 15:001133Punt21–13
MINQ4 8:4938Punt21–13
CARQ4 7:201551Turnover on downs21–13
MINQ4 0:5747Turnover on downs21–13

Box score

Individual performances

Vikings

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Kirk Cousins12/1913922

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Alexander Mattison17955.60
Cam Akers5408.00
Kirk Cousins100.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Justin Jefferson69852
T.J. Hockenson23240
K.J. Osborn12160
Cam Akers22110
Alexander Mattison1130
Jordan Addison0100

Panthers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Bryce Young25/3220400

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Chuba Hubbard14412.90
Miles Sanders13191.50
Bryce Young2105.00
Laviska Shenault Jr.177.00
Adam Thielen166.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Adam Thielen78760
Terrace Marshall Jr.910560
DJ Chark23280
Miles Sanders33130
Laviska Shenault Jr.11120
Chuba Hubbard22120
Hayden Hurst1370
Ian Thomas0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -4.53.0%3.2%4.9%3.2%7.5%6.5%3.6%

Positive margins favour Panthers; negative favour Vikings.

Half-point at risk

2.55%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

36.7%

Expected total

44.0est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.63
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment-4.74
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin-4.67