Closing spread
MIN -4.5
Total
46.5
Model margin
-4.7est.
CAR perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Panthers
- Vikings
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.025EPA / play-0.160
- 43.2%Success rate38.2%
- +0.039EPA / dropback-0.163
- -0.158EPA / rush-0.155
- 9.4%Explosive rate6.3%
- +2.80CPOE-1.80
- 37.5%Third-down rate34.8%
- 56.4%Red-zone TD rate42.3%
- 1.84Points / drive1.00
- 3.0%Turnover rate1.8%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
MIN lead 9–6 since 1999
MIN have won 3 straight. Meetings average 42.3 points. CAR are 7-8 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Vikings
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kirk Cousins | 12/19 | 139 | 2 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alexander Mattison | 17 | 95 | 5.6 | 0 |
| Cam Akers | 5 | 40 | 8.0 | 0 |
| Kirk Cousins | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Justin Jefferson | 6 | 9 | 85 | 2 |
| T.J. Hockenson | 2 | 3 | 24 | 0 |
| K.J. Osborn | 1 | 2 | 16 | 0 |
| Cam Akers | 2 | 2 | 11 | 0 |
| Alexander Mattison | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
| Jordan Addison | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Panthers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bryce Young | 25/32 | 204 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chuba Hubbard | 14 | 41 | 2.9 | 0 |
| Miles Sanders | 13 | 19 | 1.5 | 0 |
| Bryce Young | 2 | 10 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Laviska Shenault Jr. | 1 | 7 | 7.0 | 0 |
| Adam Thielen | 1 | 6 | 6.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adam Thielen | 7 | 8 | 76 | 0 |
| Terrace Marshall Jr. | 9 | 10 | 56 | 0 |
| DJ Chark | 2 | 3 | 28 | 0 |
| Miles Sanders | 3 | 3 | 13 | 0 |
| Laviska Shenault Jr. | 1 | 1 | 12 | 0 |
| Chuba Hubbard | 2 | 2 | 12 | 0 |
| Hayden Hurst | 1 | 3 | 7 | 0 |
| Ian Thomas | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Panthers; negative favour Vikings.
Half-point at risk
2.55%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
36.7%
Expected total
44.0est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.63
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment-4.74
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-4.67