Closing spread
MIN -3
Total
50
Model margin
+4.4est.
MIN perspective
Push chance
7.5%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Vikings
- Panthers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.019EPA / play+0.089
- 45.8%Success rate49.1%
- +0.075EPA / dropback+0.175
- -0.082EPA / rush-0.025
- 8.9%Explosive rate11.4%
- +2.88CPOE+4.45
- 39.5%Third-down rate41.2%
- 58.0%Red-zone TD rate74.1%
- 2.21Points / drive2.30
- 2.1%Turnover rate2.1%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
MIN lead 9–6 since 1999
MIN have won 3 straight. Meetings average 42.3 points. MIN are 8-7 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Panthers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Teddy Bridgewater | 19/36 | 267 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mike Davis | 15 | 55 | 3.7 | 0 |
| Rodney Smith | 7 | 18 | 2.6 | 0 |
| Trenton Cannon | 3 | 17 | 5.7 | 0 |
| Teddy Bridgewater | 2 | 12 | 6.0 | 0 |
| Curtis Samuel | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Robbie Chosen | 4 | 7 | 94 | 1 |
| Curtis Samuel | 5 | 5 | 72 | 0 |
| DJ Moore | 4 | 9 | 61 | 0 |
| Mike Davis | 3 | 6 | 24 | 0 |
| Chris Manhertz | 1 | 1 | 11 | 0 |
| Ian Thomas | 1 | 2 | 4 | 0 |
| Trenton Cannon | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| Rodney Smith | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Vikings
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kirk Cousins | 34/45 | 307 | 3 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dalvin Cook | 18 | 61 | 3.4 | 0 |
| Kirk Cousins | 3 | 19 | 6.3 | 0 |
| Alexander Mattison | 2 | 6 | 3.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bisi Johnson | 7 | 7 | 74 | 0 |
| Justin Jefferson | 7 | 13 | 70 | 2 |
| Kyle Rudolph | 7 | 8 | 68 | 0 |
| Chad Beebe | 7 | 7 | 63 | 1 |
| Dalvin Cook | 4 | 4 | 21 | 0 |
| Brandon Dillon | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
| Tyler Conklin | 1 | 2 | 5 | 0 |
| Tajae Sharpe | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Vikings; negative favour Panthers.
Half-point at risk
7.49%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
60.9%
Expected total
46.6est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.73
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+4.44