2020 · Week 12

Final

Panthers

Carolina

QB Teddy Bridgewater

27·28

Vikings

Minnesota

QB Kirk Cousins

U.S. Bank Stadium · dome · sportturf

Closing spread

MIN -3

Total

50

Model margin

+4.4est.

MIN perspective

Push chance

7.5%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Panthers

Vikings

Win probability

  • Vikings
  • Panthers

How each play moved the game.

Vikings winsPanthers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Panthersedge mapVikings
  • +0.019EPA / play+0.089
  • 45.8%Success rate49.1%
  • +0.075EPA / dropback+0.175
  • -0.082EPA / rush-0.025
  • 8.9%Explosive rate11.4%
  • +2.88CPOE+4.45
  • 39.5%Third-down rate41.2%
  • 58.0%Red-zone TD rate74.1%
  • 2.21Points / drive2.30
  • 2.1%Turnover rate2.1%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

MIN lead 9–6 since 1999

MIN have won 3 straight. Meetings average 42.3 points. MIN are 8-7 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2023 · W4MIN @ CAR21–13MIN
2021 · W6MIN @ CAR34–28MIN
2017 · W14MIN @ CAR24–31CAR
2016 · W3MIN @ CAR22–10MIN
2014 · W13CAR @ MIN13–31MIN
2013 · W6CAR @ MIN35–10CAR
2011 · W8MIN @ CAR24–21MIN
2009 · W15MIN @ CAR7–26CAR

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultCAR–MIN
CARQ1 15:00414Punt0–0
MINQ1 13:121363Touchdown0–7
CARQ1 5:34624Punt0–7
MINQ1 3:2239Punt0–7
CARQ1 2:031153Turnover0–7
MINQ2 11:50618Punt0–7
CARQ2 7:251181Touchdown7–7
MINQ2 1:52951Field goal7–10
MINQ3 15:003-8Opp touchdown14–10
MINQ3 14:0113Opp touchdown21–10
MINQ3 13:51520Punt21–10
CARQ3 11:411063Missed field goal21–10
MINQ3 5:211282Field goal21–13
CARQ4 14:47958Field goal24–13
MINQ4 11:311175Touchdown24–21
CARQ4 5:31724Punt24–21
CARQ4 2:1036Field goal27–21
MINQ4 1:51775Touchdown27–28
CARQ4 0:46351Missed field goal27–28
MINQ4 0:0100End of half27–28

Box score

Individual performances

Panthers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Teddy Bridgewater19/3626711

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Mike Davis15553.70
Rodney Smith7182.60
Trenton Cannon3175.70
Teddy Bridgewater2126.00
Curtis Samuel155.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Robbie Chosen47941
Curtis Samuel55720
DJ Moore49610
Mike Davis36240
Chris Manhertz11110
Ian Thomas1240
Trenton Cannon1110
Rodney Smith0100

Vikings

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Kirk Cousins34/4530730

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Dalvin Cook18613.40
Kirk Cousins3196.30
Alexander Mattison263.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Bisi Johnson77740
Justin Jefferson713702
Kyle Rudolph78680
Chad Beebe77631
Dalvin Cook44210
Brandon Dillon1160
Tyler Conklin1250
Tajae Sharpe0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +33.6%6.6%7.5%3.2%4.9%3.2%2.9%

Positive margins favour Vikings; negative favour Panthers.

Half-point at risk

7.49%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

60.9%

Expected total

46.6est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.73
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+4.44