2017 · Week 14

Final

Vikings

Minnesota

QB Case Keenum

24·31

Panthers

Carolina

QB Cam Newton

Bank of America Stadium · outdoors · grass · 41°F · wind 5mph

Closing spread

MIN -2.5

Total

40.5

Model margin

-1.3est.

CAR perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Vikings

Panthers

Win probability

  • Panthers
  • Vikings

How each play moved the game.

Panthers winsVikings wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Vikingsedge mapPanthers
  • +0.026EPA / play-0.018
  • 42.5%Success rate41.3%
  • +0.155EPA / dropback+0.040
  • -0.142EPA / rush-0.096
  • 8.8%Explosive rate8.9%
  • +3.66CPOE-2.85
  • 44.3%Third-down rate43.2%
  • 63.1%Red-zone TD rate55.8%
  • 2.02Points / drive1.87
  • 1.3%Turnover rate2.0%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

MIN lead 9–6 since 1999

MIN have won 3 straight. Meetings average 42.3 points. CAR are 7-8 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2023 · W4MIN @ CAR21–13MIN
2021 · W6MIN @ CAR34–28MIN
2020 · W12CAR @ MIN27–28MIN
2016 · W3MIN @ CAR22–10MIN
2014 · W13CAR @ MIN13–31MIN
2013 · W6CAR @ MIN35–10CAR
2011 · W8MIN @ CAR24–21MIN
2009 · W15MIN @ CAR7–26CAR

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultMIN–CAR
MINQ1 15:0057Turnover0–0
CARQ1 12:30369Touchdown0–7
MINQ1 10:551075Touchdown7–7
CARQ1 6:281459Touchdown7–14
MINQ2 14:1641Punt7–14
CARQ2 13:0039Punt7–14
MINQ2 11:2238Punt7–14
CARQ2 10:0136Punt7–14
MINQ2 9:05862Field goal10–14
CARQ2 5:02514Punt10–14
MINQ2 2:331147Field goal13–14
CARQ2 0:0700End of half13–14
CARQ3 15:001180Touchdown13–21
MINQ3 8:4210Turnover13–21
CARQ3 8:2838Field goal13–24
MINQ3 6:51936Punt13–24
CARQ3 2:0032Punt13–24
MINQ3 0:163-6Missed field goal13–24
CARQ4 14:20515Punt13–24
MINQ4 11:47861Turnover13–24
CARQ4 8:4838Punt13–24
MINQ4 7:04473Touchdown21–24
CARQ4 5:3635Turnover21–24
MINQ4 4:363-3Field goal24–24
CARQ4 3:07575Touchdown24–31
MINQ4 1:474-5Turnover on downs24–31
CARQ4 1:0500End of half24–31

Box score

Individual performances

Vikings

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Case Keenum27/4428022

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Jerick McKinnon7466.60
Case Keenum5408.00
Latavius Murray9141.60

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Adam Thielen6121051
Stefon Diggs610640
Kyle Rudolph35411
Laquon Treadwell24230
Jarius Wright22130
Jerick McKinnon2390
Blake Bell2270
Latavius Murray2260
Michael Floyd1230

Panthers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Cam Newton13/2513711

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Jonathan Stewart161036.43
Cam Newton11706.40
Christian McCaffrey8354.40
Russell Shepard188.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Devin Funchess37591
Damiere Byrd55370
Christian McCaffrey34180
Brenton Bersin11170
Chris Manhertz1160
Greg Olsen0100
Jonathan Stewart0100
Ed Dickson0100
Fozzy Whittaker0100
Kaelin Clay0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -2.52.9%4.6%3.0%7.5%7.2%2.8%4.2%

Positive margins favour Panthers; negative favour Vikings.

Half-point at risk

2.13%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

45.7%

Expected total

44.1est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.99
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin-1.25