Closing spread
MIN -2.5
Total
40.5
Model margin
-1.3est.
CAR perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Panthers
- Vikings
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.026EPA / play-0.018
- 42.5%Success rate41.3%
- +0.155EPA / dropback+0.040
- -0.142EPA / rush-0.096
- 8.8%Explosive rate8.9%
- +3.66CPOE-2.85
- 44.3%Third-down rate43.2%
- 63.1%Red-zone TD rate55.8%
- 2.02Points / drive1.87
- 1.3%Turnover rate2.0%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
MIN lead 9–6 since 1999
MIN have won 3 straight. Meetings average 42.3 points. CAR are 7-8 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Vikings
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Case Keenum | 27/44 | 280 | 2 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jerick McKinnon | 7 | 46 | 6.6 | 0 |
| Case Keenum | 5 | 40 | 8.0 | 0 |
| Latavius Murray | 9 | 14 | 1.6 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adam Thielen | 6 | 12 | 105 | 1 |
| Stefon Diggs | 6 | 10 | 64 | 0 |
| Kyle Rudolph | 3 | 5 | 41 | 1 |
| Laquon Treadwell | 2 | 4 | 23 | 0 |
| Jarius Wright | 2 | 2 | 13 | 0 |
| Jerick McKinnon | 2 | 3 | 9 | 0 |
| Blake Bell | 2 | 2 | 7 | 0 |
| Latavius Murray | 2 | 2 | 6 | 0 |
| Michael Floyd | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0 |
Panthers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cam Newton | 13/25 | 137 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jonathan Stewart | 16 | 103 | 6.4 | 3 |
| Cam Newton | 11 | 70 | 6.4 | 0 |
| Christian McCaffrey | 8 | 35 | 4.4 | 0 |
| Russell Shepard | 1 | 8 | 8.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Devin Funchess | 3 | 7 | 59 | 1 |
| Damiere Byrd | 5 | 5 | 37 | 0 |
| Christian McCaffrey | 3 | 4 | 18 | 0 |
| Brenton Bersin | 1 | 1 | 17 | 0 |
| Chris Manhertz | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
| Greg Olsen | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Jonathan Stewart | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Ed Dickson | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Fozzy Whittaker | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Kaelin Clay | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Panthers; negative favour Vikings.
Half-point at risk
2.13%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
45.7%
Expected total
44.1est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.99
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-1.25