2013 · Week 6

Final

Panthers

Carolina

QB Cam Newton

35·10

Vikings

Minnesota

QB Matt Cassel

Mall of America Field · dome · sportturf

Closing spread

MIN -2.5

Total

44.5

Model margin

+0.3est.

MIN perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Panthers

Vikings

Win probability

  • Vikings
  • Panthers

How each play moved the game.

Vikings winsPanthers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Panthersedge mapVikings
  • +0.050EPA / play-0.017
  • 42.1%Success rate41.4%
  • +0.130EPA / dropback-0.026
  • -0.056EPA / rush-0.002
  • 7.3%Explosive rate10.2%
  • +1.02CPOE-2.09
  • 44.3%Third-down rate36.4%
  • 64.7%Red-zone TD rate57.9%
  • 2.03Points / drive1.75
  • 1.6%Turnover rate2.8%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

MIN lead 9–6 since 1999

MIN have won 3 straight. Meetings average 42.3 points. MIN are 8-7 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2023 · W4MIN @ CAR21–13MIN
2021 · W6MIN @ CAR34–28MIN
2020 · W12CAR @ MIN27–28MIN
2017 · W14MIN @ CAR24–31CAR
2016 · W3MIN @ CAR22–10MIN
2014 · W13CAR @ MIN13–31MIN
2011 · W8MIN @ CAR24–21MIN
2009 · W15MIN @ CAR7–26CAR

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultCAR–MIN
MINQ1 15:00836Turnover0–0
CARQ1 11:321767Touchdown7–0
MINQ1 2:0335Punt7–0
CARQ1 0:24530Punt7–0
MINQ2 13:17420Punt7–0
CARQ2 10:171467Touchdown14–0
MINQ2 3:431476Field goal14–3
CARQ2 0:1400End of half14–3
CARQ3 15:00386Touchdown21–3
MINQ3 13:563-7Punt21–3
CARQ3 12:001053Touchdown28–3
MINQ3 6:10845Turnover on downs28–3
CARQ3 3:061033Punt28–3
MINQ4 13:23737Turnover28–3
CARQ4 10:42521Touchdown35–3
MINQ4 7:403-6Punt35–3
CARQ4 6:02312Punt35–3
MINQ4 3:381284Touchdown35–10
CARQ4 1:0000End of half35–10

Box score

Individual performances

Panthers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Cam Newton20/2624230

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
DeAngelo Williams17643.80
Cam Newton9303.31
Brandon LaFell199.00
Armond Smith155.00
Derek Anderson2-1-0.50
Ted Ginn1-3-3.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Brandon LaFell441071
DeAngelo Williams55530
Ted Ginn23220
Steve Smith57211
Greg Olsen24190

Vikings

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Matt Cassel32/4424112

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Adrian Peterson10626.20
Matt Cassel273.50
Toby Gerhart166.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Kyle Rudolph911971
Greg Jennings610340
Jerome Simpson47300
Joe Webb34240
Adrian Peterson34210
John Carlson22120
Toby Gerhart12100
Jarius Wright22100
Cordarrelle Patterson2230

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +2.52.7%4.4%2.9%7.3%7.4%2.9%4.5%2.7%

Positive margins favour Vikings; negative favour Panthers.

Half-point at risk

7.38%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

49.8%

Expected total

44.5est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.76
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential+0.56
  • Expected margin+0.29