Closing spread
MIN -2.5
Total
44.5
Model margin
+0.3est.
MIN perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Vikings
- Panthers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.050EPA / play-0.017
- 42.1%Success rate41.4%
- +0.130EPA / dropback-0.026
- -0.056EPA / rush-0.002
- 7.3%Explosive rate10.2%
- +1.02CPOE-2.09
- 44.3%Third-down rate36.4%
- 64.7%Red-zone TD rate57.9%
- 2.03Points / drive1.75
- 1.6%Turnover rate2.8%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
MIN lead 9–6 since 1999
MIN have won 3 straight. Meetings average 42.3 points. MIN are 8-7 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Panthers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cam Newton | 20/26 | 242 | 3 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DeAngelo Williams | 17 | 64 | 3.8 | 0 |
| Cam Newton | 9 | 30 | 3.3 | 1 |
| Brandon LaFell | 1 | 9 | 9.0 | 0 |
| Armond Smith | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Derek Anderson | 2 | -1 | -0.5 | 0 |
| Ted Ginn | 1 | -3 | -3.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brandon LaFell | 4 | 4 | 107 | 1 |
| DeAngelo Williams | 5 | 5 | 53 | 0 |
| Ted Ginn | 2 | 3 | 22 | 0 |
| Steve Smith | 5 | 7 | 21 | 1 |
| Greg Olsen | 2 | 4 | 19 | 0 |
Vikings
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Cassel | 32/44 | 241 | 1 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adrian Peterson | 10 | 62 | 6.2 | 0 |
| Matt Cassel | 2 | 7 | 3.5 | 0 |
| Toby Gerhart | 1 | 6 | 6.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyle Rudolph | 9 | 11 | 97 | 1 |
| Greg Jennings | 6 | 10 | 34 | 0 |
| Jerome Simpson | 4 | 7 | 30 | 0 |
| Joe Webb | 3 | 4 | 24 | 0 |
| Adrian Peterson | 3 | 4 | 21 | 0 |
| John Carlson | 2 | 2 | 12 | 0 |
| Toby Gerhart | 1 | 2 | 10 | 0 |
| Jarius Wright | 2 | 2 | 10 | 0 |
| Cordarrelle Patterson | 2 | 2 | 3 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Vikings; negative favour Panthers.
Half-point at risk
7.38%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
49.8%
Expected total
44.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.76
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.56
- Expected margin+0.29